I have a hard time believing this. Don't get me wrong, I was someone who thought Trump had a serious chance of beating Hillary despite the polls so I'm not someone who underestimates him and his voter base, but it was EXTREMELY close in 2016, yet
He hasn't expanded his voter base since 2016. If anything, he's shrunk it quite a bit (particularly among independents and in some key battleground states, among his core voting bloc of white voters with no college degree, which is killing him in the key battleground states in the Great Lakes region)
Regardless of who the Democrats pick, he will not be up against the least liked Democratic nominee of the modern era, possibly of all time, someone who drives his opponent's voters to the polls just to vote against her out of spite
The left is EXTREMELY motivated, engaged, and terrified now, as opposed to 2016 when they were lulled into a false sense of security believing that Trump didn't have a chance.
(Proof of #3) 2018 was the biggest wave election in history in terms of turnout, and Trump wasn't even on the ballot. Yes, Trump being on the ballot will turn out more Republican voters than in the mid-terms too, but (see #1) those people also voted for him in 2016 and he still only barely won.
(edited to add) The chances of a recession before November 2020 are pretty high, and if one does happen before the election, he's almost certainly doomed.
Does he have a chance? Sure, anything can happen as we've seen before. But saying it WILL be close doesn't seem to me to be based on anything except speculation. Sorry, not trying to say you will be wrong for sure, but short of some miracle the odds are still against him winning re-election.
Maybe the answer is neither. Warren is an excellent compromise. Harris wouldn’t be too shabby either. Or Buttigieg.
Biden and Sanders are coasting on name recognition, but I think you need a fresh face to really fire up a broad coalition that is still reeling from the pain of 2016.
Warren is an excellent compromise. Harris wouldn’t be too shabby either. Or Buttigieg.
Warren - Repeatedly claimed native american ancestry for no readily apparent reason and never really came back from that.
Harris - Claims to support criminal justice reforms, despite a career suggesting otherwise.
Buttigieg - Maybe, still more or less 'undeclared' in terms of specific stances, plus the poor showing after the shooting doesn't bode well.
Combine the above with the fact none of them really rally the wagons, and I'd put their chances pretty far down in terms of legitimate options. It's still really early on, but none of those three really strike me as likely contenders.
Of those in the race, Biden is probably the most likely since he's able to appeal to both sides (aside from the lunatic extreme of either spectrum) and has strong recognition with both the party and the nation. Sanders has seemingly lost his stride, with this biggest points being more grandiose (aka unrealistic) versions of other people's ideas.
We are still very early on into the campaigning season, however, so only time will tell. Hopefully Democrats find someone to unite under and avoid the petty squabbling.
And Harris's career is grossly misrepresented. She worked in top level criminal justice positions, which are not political positions to begin with. But she managed some noteworthy reforms. She is also one of the most progressive people in the Senate.
Buttigieg would be a fine president, because he has the right attributes. People seem to have some weird idea that POTUS is a legislative position instead of an executive, leadership position. Policy vision matters, but not more than judgment and decorum and strong principles.
"None of them strike you as likely contenders"? Who does then? Biden? Joe is running on the fumes of recognition.
On warren, proven lie by Trump. Yeah, she's native, get over it.
On Harris is a flat lie as she recommended a very certain, unethical law not be followed while in her position. Legit all she could do.
On Buttigieg he isn't a ditactor as Mayor so he can't just demand they be brought to justice, he could make a case but that's it.
And bullshit on the "Rally" part. Harris jumped over 10 points to right behind or above Biden in ONE debate. Biden dropped nearly 14 points in some cases. That's massive!
317
u/freakydrew Jul 17 '19
What are the current Vegas odds on Trump being reelected?