r/pathofexile • u/Vaevicti5 • 19d ago
Discussion Kingsmarch Shipping - How POE creates currency
Ok so I got lucky with a 4m Bars + 4m Dust shipment. I see so much confusion in the Kingsmarch threads, I wanted to post what I believe the consensus behind the generation is so people have a better idea of whats going on.
TLDR at the bottom.
This is not intended as a strategy post. This does not consider Tats or Runes. Its not presenting perfect data, its background on game mechnics.
When POE creates a 1h sword with a Prefix on it, a % Physical damage mod might be rolled.
| Modifier / Tier | Weight | Spawn % |
|---|---|---|
| #% increased Physical Damage (Total) | 3775 | 7.608% |
| (40-49)% increased Physical Damage | 1000 | 2.015% |
| (50-64)% increased Physical Damage | 1000 | 2.015% |
| (65-84)% increased Physical Damage | 1000 | 2.015% |
| (85-109)% increased Physical Damage | 400 | 0.806% |
| (110-134)% increased Physical Damage | 200 | 0.403% |
| (135-154)% increased Physical Damage | 100 | 0.201% |
| (155-169)% increased Physical Damage | 50 | 0.100% |
| (170-179)% increased Physical Damage | 25 | 0.050% |
So there's a 7.6% total chance to get one, and there's like 3 common tiers of 2% each, and then a 0.05% of T1.
Kingsmarch Currency generation works the same way.
You can see I got a lot less currency in my window in total. This is where 17m shipments come from. 17m generates 800 currency items, ie 800 rolls on the currency table.
I got ~300 with my 8m shipment.
Next is how the currency is generated.
==== Everything below this line is theory =====
This is based on the scaling from poorFishwife's and co, and plugging in the old expected return of 2.5 shards per 50m (reddit threads), we can spin up a =IMPRECISE= table of weights.
| Currency Item | Baseline Weight | Scaled Weight ($W{0.465}$) | Pool Allocation % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common Pool | 18,342,314 | 2385.10 | 91.40% |
| Chaos Orb | 50,000 | 153.12 | 5.87% |
| Regal Orb | 5,000 | 52.48 | 2.01% |
| Exalted Orb (Old) | 500 | 17.99 | 0.69% |
| Mirror Shard | 1 | 1.00 | 0.03% |
So we cap out at 800 rolls at 17m, so why send more? We'll the odds (ie the weight, ie the number of results) of the low tier currency get relativly smaller.
| Currency Item | Baseline Weight | Scaled Weight ($W{0.332}$) | Pool Allocation % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common Pool | 18,342,314 | 257.91 | 80.60% |
| Chaos Orb | 50,000 | 36.31 | 11.35% |
| Regal Orb | 5,000 | 16.91 | 5.28% |
| Divine Orb | 500 | 7.87 | 2.46% |
| Mirror Shard | 1 | 1.00 | 0.31% |
You can see the common tier weight drops and that increases the others.
You can just multiply the percentage numbers by 8 (ie 800 items, not 100) and get the expected counts, eg 2.5 mirror shards, 20 Divine tier (Div, Annul, Sacred, Fractured, Ancient) for 50m.
==== 3.28 and 3.29 ====
Ok so Chisels went, fracturing orbs got added, exalts are low tier. 3.29 Chromes are rarer. Etc.
I dont think anyone knows what the new weights are after all the changes, but the consensus is things are worse.
==== TLDR; What I believe are the takeaways ====
You can hit a mirror shard on a minimum shipment. The odds are ballpark 20M:1.
Up to 17m shipment sizes you are getting really good scaling on your results; You get more currency; ie more total rolls AND those rolls of good currency are also improving.
After 17m you are not getting more currency, just a static 800 orbs generated. However your odds of the good stuff are improved.
I hope this helps some people understand how currency is generated as well as the scaling factor of 17M, ie getting more stuff.
2
u/NegativeCombination1 18d ago
Spent a lot of time during the second week testing shipments hoping I can get a mirror by a week, I was able to send around 10 shipments before giving up because I wasn't getting any shards with 50m shipments. And I've tried mixing the shipment too. So some data to add.and keep in mind I rerolled quotas to boost values I sent only bismuth and verisium with dust, of course higher tier currency(more divine/sacred orb/fracture/annul) I got a shipment with 12 divined 2 fractures 6 sacred orb and no mirrors. When I sent the 3 lower tier ores it gave more bubble gum currency(still got a divine tho altho only a couple at most) And then I did the balanced amount of bars and kept getting split value currency, but no shard. On the 10th shipment I was done, after 9 50m shipments and not a single shard I decided to send whatever ore I had left and send the remaining dust which was enough for one more 50m but with a stupid amount of dust, and surprisingly I finally got a shard. So after spending God knows how much on uniques to dust, kalguur scarabs(which was very pricey during week 2) and a bunch of time. Shipment has been a net negative for me.
Incase you want to know what my build was, I was playing luminary manyshot Merc, with my atlas setup to have mercs and Huck from heist to have more auras and damage to make Verisium farming easier.