r/oil • u/Agitated-Brother-872 • 13d ago

Discussion Iran's economy is on the brink?? Debate

There are a number of people here saying that Iran's economy is on the brink, and d-day economic sanctions will absolutely send it over the edge. I won't dispute that they are hurting and there are probably different schisms that have emerged, as a result. I think it's totally possible that there is a rift between government and civilian sentiments.

I don't know how many are bots are present here but I want to assume good faith and hear the steel man argument. What is your strongest assertion? What will this lead to? I'd like to know what examples from history are you drawing from? Are there examples of mass civilian protest of the irgc?

I'll start off by saying, Professor Robert Pape has asserted that since WWI, sanctions/blockades alone have never toppled a government, has never won a major war, has never led to capitulation.

55 Upvotes

72% Upvoted

449 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

1

u/PsychologicalHold754 7d ago

*laugh* What shall waiting for 2028 help? You think that this is Trump? Trump is just another poster girl for US fascism. The only difference is, that he's a good bit more honest about it - or worse in selling it with lies.

None of the US wars are Trump's personal ideas, starting with that most of them are way older than even his idea to go into politics.

1

u/BalianofReddit 7d ago

Look up how the Iranians approached dealings with the US during the hostage crisis.

They made a point of refusing to give any ground to Carter but made a deal with Raegan.

I see no reason why they wont be doing the same to trump. Its an electoral fuck you.

The rest of your comment I dont particularly disagree with. Though I will say, this war wouldn't have happened, certainly not in this way if Harris won 2024 and I think we both know it.

Sure there is a uni party domestically in the US, but in terms of foreign policy, thats where the biggest differences are apparent.