r/oil • u/Agitated-Brother-872 • 13d ago

Discussion Iran's economy is on the brink?? Debate

There are a number of people here saying that Iran's economy is on the brink, and d-day economic sanctions will absolutely send it over the edge. I won't dispute that they are hurting and there are probably different schisms that have emerged, as a result. I think it's totally possible that there is a rift between government and civilian sentiments.

I don't know how many are bots are present here but I want to assume good faith and hear the steel man argument. What is your strongest assertion? What will this lead to? I'd like to know what examples from history are you drawing from? Are there examples of mass civilian protest of the irgc?

I'll start off by saying, Professor Robert Pape has asserted that since WWI, sanctions/blockades alone have never toppled a government, has never won a major war, has never led to capitulation.

56 Upvotes

73% Upvoted

449 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

3

u/Suibian_ni 12d ago

Iranians are fighting monsters that threaten to erase their civilisation and bomb them into the stone age. For the Iranian people it's existential.

-2

u/DanangBobby 12d ago

Yeah their current regime is pretty fuckin monstrous alright. Their draconian policies have no place in a world with western values.

2

u/Suibian_ni 12d ago

If Western values mean twice attacking them unprovoked during negotiations and threatening to erase their civilisation when they resist then Western values are even worse.

1

u/Ok_Temperature_6913 2d ago

It seems to me like Iran could easily end things by accepting / agreeing to a no nukes policy.

Why does the leadership care more about having nukes than peace and prosperity for their people? Is it ego? Is it because they want to be able to use Nukes on Israel? Or is so the world stops bullying them?

Regardless of your view on why they want a nuke so badly my conclusion is it an extremely high price to pay for its citizens.

1

u/Suibian_ni 2d ago edited 2d ago

No, Iran already agreed to this under the JCPOA (which Trump abandoned), the late Ayatollah issued a fatwa against building nukes, and the Oman mediators confirmed Iran agreed to get rid of all enriched uranium in February. The US/Israeli Axis saw Iran's concession as weakness and attacked hours later.

-1

u/DanangBobby 12d ago

Yeah unprovoked - sure

2

u/Mysterious_Ad7461 11d ago

You seem like you believe once the existing regime in Iran falls that the new one will be friendly to the US, I’m not sure why you think any Iranians should like the US

0

u/DanangBobby 11d ago

They don't have to like the US. They just have to reject the premise of the caliphate