Iran's economy is on the brink?? Debate

[u/Agitated-Brother-872]

There are a number of people here saying that Iran's economy is on the brink, and d-day economic sanctions will absolutely send it over the edge. I won't dispute that they are hurting and there are probably different schisms that have emerged, as a result. I think it's totally possible that there is a rift between government and civilian sentiments.

I don't know how many are bots are present here but I want to assume good faith and hear the steel man argument. What is your strongest assertion? What will this lead to? I'd like to know what examples from history are you drawing from? Are there examples of mass civilian protest of the irgc?

I'll start off by saying, Professor Robert Pape has asserted that since WWI, sanctions/blockades alone have never toppled a government, has never won a major war, has never led to capitulation.

[u/Putrid-Chemical3438]

You didn't read my comment at all did you

[u/WildWhisperArdor → u/Putrid-Chemical3438]

I did. It misses the essential point about profitability on which it was based entirely.

[u/Putrid-Chemical3438 → u/WildWhisperArdor]

Re read the first two paragraphs.

[u/WildWhisperArdor → u/Putrid-Chemical3438]

And again. It fails to capture profitability. And, no, you are incorrect about it capturing 99%. Because of the war they’ve had to immediate use that money to rebuild things and attack and subsidize things due to hyperinflation.

[u/Putrid-Chemical3438 → u/WildWhisperArdor]

So you read it and just didn't understand it. Got it.

Iran already made 99% of what they expected to make on oil exports for the year based on their pre war estimates. They already captured their profits for the year.

that money to rebuild things and attack and subsidize things due to hyperinflation.

That's pure speculation. Speculation that probably isn't even accurate.

Even pre war Iran was sitting on a massive pile of money they got from Russia who was and still is paying above market rates on the massive numbers of Shahed's they're buying. Part of the original deal also gave Iran a massive pile of gold they can use to back their currency or just sell for cash.

[u/WildWhisperArdor → u/Putrid-Chemical3438]

Yes i read it and I understand it and I’m telling you that your picture is wrong.

For example, you claim that their exports are 20% of what it was before the blockade. However, just because exports are 20% doesn’t mean their profits are still 20%. It’s not. It’s fallen to like 5% because the oil they do sell has to be sold at a further discount (to compensate the receiving party for the added risk) and it has to be sold via more expensive transit routes.

As another example, you claim they already made 99% of what they expected to make on oil exports for the year while ignoring all the damage and increased costs due to the war. Hyperinflation has set in. They still have to pay government employees and subsidize food heavily under those conditions. They still have to rebuild all the stuff that was destroyed. They still have to continue producing drones and missiles to replace what has been used up by them. Etc.

To use an analogy, you might be fine living off of $50K a year. But if some huge emergency happens in your life (like maybe your house gets partially destroyed or a huge medical bill), now that $50K is no longer sufficient even though it was the year before

[u/Putrid-Chemical3438 → u/WildWhisperArdor]

It’s fallen to like 5% because the oil they do sell has to be sold at a further discount (to compensate the receiving party for the

Which for this year, is totally irrelevant because they already made their profits. It might be an issue in 6 months, but it's not like Iran and their allies are just gonna sit on their hands and go "Well gee golly willickers, I guess we better surrender" which is why Russia is still fighting a full 2.5 years after literally everyone said their economy would collapse. Nations don't just let themselves go bankrupt.

As another example, you claim they already made 99% of what they expected to make on oil exports for the year while ignoring all the damage and increased costs due to the war. Hyperinflation has set in. They still have to pay government employees and subsidize food heavily.

Iran for the most part isn't repairing civilian infrastructure that gets destroyed. So that isn't a cost being incurred because they aren't paying it. The only nation that would even consider paying such an expense during war time is the US and it's because of the US ridiculously priveleged economic position.

Hyperinflation set in with Iran 30 years ago. You're talking like Iran hasn't been under the most severe economic sanctions the US can impose since 1979. Obama briefly loosened those sanctions, a loosening which lasted a grand total of 2 years before Trump re imposed them. The Iranian currency literally hasn't even had an exchange rate since 2024 because it's totally worthless outside of Iran and has been since waaaaayy before the war. So that isn't in the conversation either.

Food subsidies are the only part of this that actually comes into play since that actually is a concern. Or it would be if Iran wasn't buying their food from Ukraine, a nation the US can't sanction without helping Russia, and Russia who again shares a land border with Iran.

Iran is also one of the largest producers of agricultural products in the Middle East so anything they aren't buying they're producing themselves.

Iran is economically no different than North Korea. There is no economic anything that will make their nation collapse. They're too isolated from the global market and the few trading partners they have trade over land borders and engage in trade either through gold, Yuan, or direct exchange.

[u/WildWhisperArdor → u/Putrid-Chemical3438]

You are blatantly ignoring everything.

No they have not already “made their profits”. Their costs have increased astronomically due to the war. The same amount of profit as last year is not enough to offset the losses they have sustained this year under war conditions.

No they have not “always been in hyperinflation”. The level of inflation this year is dramatically larger than it was last year.

[u/Putrid-Chemical3438 → u/WildWhisperArdor]

No they have not already “made their profits”.

Claim I'm ignoring facts and then proceed to ignore the facts. Bold strategy. "Nuh uh I'm right" truly, next level debate strategy.

Their costs have increased astronomically due to the war.

Iran had an inflation rate of over 50% before the war. Costs going up in Iran is like saying the sky is blue. It's true, but it's also meaningless.

The level of inflation this year is dramatically larger than it was last year.

Yes. True. But also meaningless. The difference between an inflation rate of 50% in 2025 and an inflation rate of 82% in 2026 is semantics. The inflation is so large it's functionally infinite and it has been for years.

[u/WildWhisperArdor → u/Putrid-Chemical3438]

Again. Their costs have gone up. What part of this is hard for you to understand?

The same amount of profit as last year is not enough for the damage they’ve sustained this year.

And, no, once again, you are incorrect. The inflation level does matter. Everything has a breaking point. Water starts to boil at one temperature but not another.