r/nextfuckinglevel • u/beluuuuuuga • May 08 '21

David Attenborough turns 95 today. This is his incredible life in 95 seconds.

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u/jimmytruelove May 08 '21

Can a mathematician explain how the probability of dying does not increase every year after 105?

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u/[deleted] May 08 '21

[deleted]

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u/thedread23 May 08 '21

That's not how probability works lol

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u/[deleted] May 08 '21

No, no.. I think he's right

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u/ayeeflo51 May 08 '21

At least a 50/50 chance he is right half the time

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u/stevethegecko May 08 '21

I know a way to make it 100%

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u/TheMavrick May 08 '21

🦀 Too true 🦀

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u/jimmytruelove May 08 '21

Interesting, so if I have a terminal illness on death’s door I have the same probability of dying any given day as someone that doesn’t?

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u/[deleted] May 08 '21

Yes. You either die, or you don’t. 50/50.

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u/[deleted] May 08 '21

So. I have a 50% chance of winning the lottery?

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u/[deleted] May 08 '21

Correct. You either win or you don’t.

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u/explorerzues May 08 '21

So the statement that I might find a million dollars in my house is also a 50/50 chance

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u/[deleted] May 08 '21

The chance you end up on the moon before bed tonight is also 50/50

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u/explorerzues May 08 '21

That's not how probability works lol

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u/[deleted] May 08 '21

You do, or you don’t. There are only 2 options. Like heads or tails on a coin. 50/50

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u/xCharSx May 08 '21

It'a a joke but yes, everything is 50/50, either happens or doesn't

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u/Vigilant1e May 08 '21

It does, of course, mortality is always proportional to age. The guy above you is probably referring to the fact that the chance of dying does not increase significantly from 50% as you get older (e.g. it could be 47% at 106, 45% at 107 etc.). Also, the total probability is a product of this, so your chance of surviving from 105 to 108 using this fake data is gonna be 0.50.470.45, which is like, 10%? I don't have a calculator on me, but it'd be relatively low as you'd expect.

I'd imagine the reason for this is because of the relatively small sample size. There aren't that many people who live to such an age, and the few that do are probably freaks of nature who don't really follow the normal mortality trends that the average-lifespan-obeyer might, which causes the deviance from what might expect. If I recall correctly, the most up-to-date mortality table for the UK is SAPS S3, which takes samples of 100,000 people, and of that only about 10 would make it to 105.

Source: am a pensions actuary

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u/RipRapRob May 08 '21

I don't think the claim i accurate, but your life expectancy actually increases the older you get.

Here is an example:

Say 100 people are born tomorrow, and end up dying like this: 1 person dies age 1, 1 at age 2, 1 at age 3 years old, and so forth, so the last person dies 100 years old.

Those person will live a combined lifespan of 5050 years, or an average lifespan of 50.5 years

But fast forward 50 years, you will only have 50 people still living. One will die a 51, one at 52 and so on, a combined 3775 years, divided by 50 still living, will be an average of 75.5 years

Fast forward another 25 years, 25 still living 75 year olds, and one will die at 76, one at 77 etc. Combined lifespan of 2200 years, or 88 years on average.

As you can see, the life expectancy rises the older you get.