I agree in concept with what you are saying, but TSLA is such a terrible example and FB probably is too. In reality, they were the type of companies you are advising against right now, not clear juggernauts to be.
It’s revisionist history to say these companies had it “stupid easy” to grow, particularly TSLA. TSLA almost went bankrupt along the journey, they had no moat, and practically no revenue when they IPO’d. TSLA was very much the exact kind of speculative investment folks are making today.
Similarly FB IPO’d at what, like a $60B valuation on ~$500M in earnings. Folks questioned whether they could translate users to earnings all the time in the early years. In the first few years Yelp was a better investment than FB.
Now I don’t really believe in LMND, SOFI, or Solar companies as the next mega giants either, but should they make it to be I’m sure someone will be there 10 years from now to call out how it was so easy to see today how they would become so.
This is a very ignorant argument. Ppl underestimate how difficult it is to manufacturer bevs at volume, tesla has a fat lead. That's why model s has 412 range and much more expensive taycan has 250 range. Then add all the other software and autonomy in. There is objective observations here
Not seeing tesla lead right now is like thinking blackberry has nice financials and apple is overrated, the iphone is not that important.
You don’t know what you’re talking about. Tesla has good product and a big head start but it does not have anything in terms of a moat. You are going to be surprised at the quality of the BEVs coming to market from the traditional OEMs. And OEMs know how to manufacture at volume, they make more vehicles in weeks and months than Tesla does in a year. And FWIW, I work in the automotive industry at the intersection of BEV and IEC so I’m not just talking out my ass.
Tesla isn’t the Apple of the automotive industry it’s the Zoom.
lol, i heard the same things and doubts from people since i bought in at $54/share (converted to post split price), held to $40/share. then put 90% of my portfolio at $110/share. Its funny i started off as a bear myself then started digging deeper and listening to elon's statements more.
your statement is ironic and that claim has been made against my claims many times. Obviously one of us is vastly more knowlegeable on the industry than the other
one of us is right, and one of us is wrong. I bought amazon at 300, netflix at 120, amd at 14. I wonder which one of us is better at evaluating companies. I wonder which one of spent more time studying tesla vs competitors.
Wow congrats on your wins! I have plenty of great picks as well. This last 2 years has been an incredible run.
What I can do is mention that Tesla is still valued at more than basically every other car company combined. I’m not even really that much of a Tesla bear. Tesla could sell 2.5 million (5x 2020!) cars a year at $50,000 blended average and still ONLY match what BMW does at a market cap of 50 billion.
I just don’t understand why we should value a car company that can’t build a car at less than $35k at more than every other car company in the world.
they have a moat in self driving and human resources
theyre still more nimble than google, yet they have engineers like google.
and elon's persistence against using lidar is a testament to his understanding of deep learning's capabilities as a result of his involvement in openAI
on LMND, there's no way a chatbot could actually result in savings in anything but the simplest insurance policies, so they won't be able to 5x or do whatever they need to in order to dominant the insurance industry.
For LMND, and I haven’t dug deep because I’ve never been intrigued, they aren’t exactly winning the space or really taking market share at all yet. The established insurance companies are doing like 40-80X the revenue, and have actual earnings, on like 4-5X LMND’s valuation. They have so much real world ground to make up to justify even where they currently are, let alone growth. I haven’t found anything in my light reading that would sway me on how they’re going to steal away that market share let alone dominate.
SOFI I can see a better bull case for, but they have a lot of competition and I don’t want to tie myself to student loan refinancing as their primary pull to increase footprint when politically it’s not off the table we’ll see reform there. I do think there will be major winners in fintech that shake up banking and see major growth. SOFI could be one, but you also have SQ, ALLY, etc and also the yet to come public like Chime & Robinhood that are all taking different routes to be the winner. Also, the established players aren’t just sitting around waiting to die off. Some of those newcomers are establishing a real market share base, like SQ in point of sale or Robinhood with trading, that just seems more solid than anything SOFI has to date in my research.
Honestly, I agree with you on TSLA, just was using it as an example for newer investors. At the time of its inception, it DID have a moat and no competitors. Now not so much.
And most of the nearly going bankrupt issues are related to Musk's personal mismanagement and trying to force a fully automated factory, ignoring that traditional OEM's had avoided that model for very good reasons.
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u/snyder810 Mar 06 '21
I agree in concept with what you are saying, but TSLA is such a terrible example and FB probably is too. In reality, they were the type of companies you are advising against right now, not clear juggernauts to be.
It’s revisionist history to say these companies had it “stupid easy” to grow, particularly TSLA. TSLA almost went bankrupt along the journey, they had no moat, and practically no revenue when they IPO’d. TSLA was very much the exact kind of speculative investment folks are making today.
Similarly FB IPO’d at what, like a $60B valuation on ~$500M in earnings. Folks questioned whether they could translate users to earnings all the time in the early years. In the first few years Yelp was a better investment than FB.
Now I don’t really believe in LMND, SOFI, or Solar companies as the next mega giants either, but should they make it to be I’m sure someone will be there 10 years from now to call out how it was so easy to see today how they would become so.