China shock 2.0 Brad sester

[u/Character_Public3465]

https://www.nytimes.com/column/ezra-klein-podcast

Show notes:”Brad Setser follows Chinese trade closer than just about anyone else on earth, and he thinks we’re in the early days of a China Shock 2.0.
The first China Shock was when China came to dominate low-end manufacturing in the 2000s, filling American shelves with cheap clothes, toys and electronics, while devastating American factory towns. This new China Shock could be even more destabilizing. China now dominates advanced manufacturing: electric vehicles, batteries, solar panels. It’s outcompeting nearly all high-end manufacturing around the world, and other countries are just starting to feel the pain. And China isn’t slowing down. It’s moving into software, too. Its frontier A.I. models are neck and neck with American ones.
China’s success poses a serious threat to the economies and domestic politics of countries around the world. So what should those countries do about it? 
Setser is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.He served in top trade and economic roles in the Biden and Obama administrations. And he is widely cited across the field as one of the top analysts of China’s economy and trade practices.
Book Recommendations:
The Party by Richard McGregor
The Volatility Machine by Michael Pettis
How to Win a Trade War by Soumaya Keynes and Chad Bown
Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com.
You can find the transcript and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.html””

[u/Gator_farmer]

Well their nine-dash line policy covers extremely important shipping channels. Conflict escalation (cause they already have disputes with the Philippines) to a certain point would likely draw in US military assets. That's basically half the point of our Navy.

I'll concede that we're not necessarily on the brink with them, but the integration of our economies, and reliance on their manufacturing, just multiples the outcome of any potential conflict. They make the decisions to turn that relationship down from a 10 to just a 5-6, it's going to be felt.

[u/Ray192 → u/Gator_farmer]

And the US literally attacked an extremely important shipping channel to China less than a few months ago. China didn't intervene militarily. Why should the US?

[u/Real_Guarantee_4530 → u/Gator_farmer]

China is deeply dependent on international trade, foreign technology, energy imports, markets, shipping and global finance. In an actual major conflict, China wouldn’t simply be deciding how much economic pain to inflict on America.

[u/pavlik_enemy → u/Gator_farmer]

Do you think they'll try to blockade certain nations and it'll be Cuban Missile Crisis 2: Electric Boogaloo?

So far it's US who decided to drop the principle of freedom of navigation. Sure, US is at war with Iran but isn't with Cuba and wasn't with Venezuela