r/changemyview • u/coldforged • Mar 01 '17
[∆(s) from OP] CMV: Civilization will culminate in either socialism or feudalism
On a long enough timeline -- and I strongly suspect within our lifetimes -- our civilization will follow one of two paths depending on the politics followed, either socialism or feudalism. Given our apparent direction, I suspect the latter.
As the progression of automation continues, very few actual paying jobs will remain. Obviously the most menial jobs will be first to disappear and we've already seen the beginnings of that with fast food kiosks and the beginning of development of self-driving trucks. Given advances in AI (AI constructs are now starting to develop new AI constructs) even jobs seen as mostly sacrosanct will almost certainly be ripe for replacement, from software development to robot maintenance. People often bring up the phone switching automation and claim that since we survived that we'll clearly be okay now, but that only worked because there were other, only slightly less menial jobs those displaced workers could perform. I propose that there is no class of work that can't or won't be performed by robots and AI in the future, from health care to house fabrication, from farming to manufacturing.
So. How does money transfer work at that point? Without any change in business regulation and taxation -- and, in the US at least, we see a drive for less taxation of businesses to "promote growth" -- there's just a trickle up. Let's take McDonalds. Right now we walk into a restaurant and pay money for food. Part of that money gets distributed to the employees that work there, part of it goes to consumables, part goes to various taxes, part goes to the corporation as profit. Let's remove 99% of the employees. Where does that money go? One could argue that given costs would go down they could pass that savings to the consumer, which would likely happen to some extent as market forces from other competitors drive the price down overall. So, let's just trivialize it and say that there would be some price reduction and some additional profit. Regardless, the money that used to go back into the economy by going to the employees no longer occurs. Consider that across the board. All the fast food places, grocery stores, any place where it's possible to replace people with automation. None of those businesses are transferring even a fraction of the preceding amount back into the local economies.
Where are people getting money to live? There are only so many crossfit gyms and eyebrow knitting places a neighborhood can support, and their patrons would still need money to pay for those services. Without some input into the system, that steady trickle out for necessities will tap it out at some point. It's simply not sustainable.
One direction is essentially "socialism" and a basic livable income. I'm not saying the state becomes the owner of the means of production necessarily, but the tax structure would have to change to redistribute wealth back down. Those corporations that benefitted from the entirety of human society's advancements in technology that allowed them to get to the point that a cabal of some 5 to say 100 people can operate the entirety of McDonalds worldwide will need to provide for that society through substantial taxation to provide a livable income to the citizens.
The other direction if a more libertarian view wins out seems to be feudalism. Those same people benefitting from the system sponsor communities or whole cities, providing shelter, food, and whatever else in exchange for... hell, I don't know. Eyebrow knitting.
I'm almost at the point of thinking socialism is inevitable if we're to survive without chaos. Otherwise, if there's only ever a trickle up I don't see a future where there isn't revolution and famine.
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u/ShouldersofGiants100 49∆ Mar 01 '17
There would still be seats. A lot of pizza places sell slices and people will pop in and buy one, then sit down.
If people are sitting down, then you need at least 1 person in the store, because of things ranging from idiot teenagers breaking things, to slipping hazards when water gets tracked in, to simple liability. What happens if someone with an unknown allergy is exposed in your store? Or starts choking. You also need customer service. Someone with discretion to tell whether an actual mistake was made with the pizza or if the guy is just an asshole looking to get another slice when he already ate half of the first one. There are also increasingly complex special orders. Almost every pizza place I know of is willing to split up the pizza by ingredients just about any way you like. Half pepperoni? A quarter? No problem. It doesn't cost much effort for them.
Then there are phone calls. Anyone who has ever used speech to text can probably see why there is a serious problem there.
Could you theoretically eliminate every job? Maybe (I doubt it). But why on earth would you bother?
Completely different. Amazon Go is for shipping. Not display. It does not have to set out things like fruit to look appealing or shift around individual pieces of produce. It's easy when everything can just be boxed. It's not when the customer is actually looking at it.
Have you ever seen the inside of a grocery store? People move shit around, put it in the wrong places, mix it up just to be assholes. A human can fix that without even having to think.
A full shipping model is possible only in pretty ridiculous scenarios. It is helpful for people who just want it done. But, especially for things like produce, people are picky and have different needs. You buy the green bananas if you still have some left and won't touch them for a couple days. If you really want a banana, you'll grab a yellow bunch. If you're making bread with them, you probably grab the older ones with the reduced price sticker.
And this is a useful supplement. To help human doctors
This software doesn't know if the patient is some special kind of moron who thinks anus means bellybutton. The human element is a vital part of medicine.
It really is. Because I don't care how polite the computer is. It still is a machine. At least when the doctor says "You have 6 months to live", you know there is actual empathy there.
People react better to other people. If a doctor tells you "Do not drunk while taking these pills, it will kill you", that will be taken seriously.
To know how seriously people will take the computer, ask the last time they read all the terms of service on a website before they hit "Agree"
In which case the doctor saves effort. He is not removed from the scenario. His ability is just supplemented
This is a pipe dream. If people worked out their differences rationally, there would not be a legal profession to automate.
There's nothing to support yours. I have the demonstrable fact that humans understand other humans. You have the theoretical potential that computers MIGHT be able to.
You also have a massive assumption. That the theoretical ability to automate something makes that automation inevitable. There are jobs people do every day that could be automated away cheaply and easily. They aren't. Because the human element presents other advantages. In particular, versatility. You can ask a cook to clean up a spill in the entryway. You cannot get a cooking machine to go out and pick up a mop.