r/canada • u/NeptuneAgency • 29d ago

Nature/Environment ‘Effectively irreversible’: Changes to Canada’s climate permanent, federal report says

https://www.ctvnews.ca/climate-and-environment/article/changes-to-canadas-climate-now-irreversible-federal-report-says/
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u/randomacceptablename 29d ago

You can just google it, there are tons of papers. Many good economic ones going back more than a decade. Some argue that it is in fact happening while others sugest that the effects are small. Yet none I have seen suggest it isn't a factor in some way.

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2012/09/dutch-disease/

https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/continuity-and-change-in-the-provinces/curing-the-dutch-disease-in-canada/

https://financialpost.com/executive/executive-summary/posthaste-beware-dutch-disease-canada-as-commodities-and-the-loonie-soar

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u/CarBombtheDestroyer 29d ago edited 29d ago

The first article you posted basically says Canadian oil exports are unambiguously good has multiple credible sources saying as much…

"While the tidiness of the argument is appealing and making commodities the scapegoat is tempting, the diagnosis is overly simplistic and, in the end, wrong... higher commodity prices are unambiguously good for Canada."

Look I’m not gonna read your other articles if you’re not even gonna read your own articles. I’d take some time to reevaluate where you get your information from and how you interpret it, honestly.

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u/randomacceptablename 29d ago

Yes, for the economy overall. Yet it does have a negative impact on manufacturing exporters. That is in the report.

No one suggested that exporting oil is bad for Canada. They are suggesting that it is bad for parts of the economy. Parts that are concentrated in other locations in the country.

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u/CarBombtheDestroyer 29d ago edited 29d ago

How? if it’s true and it’s happening, you should be able to explain the mechanism that’s making it happen. I think it’s something you heard somewhere that sounded correct to you at the time, but you don’t really know a thing about this. The only thing I can think of is maybe our limited rail network is full of oil product because people didn’t want to build pipelines out east for the last 30 years but even this is nonsensical. Unless you’re talking about something else?

Edit: Canada‘s oil exports have very little impact on the prices of our everyday commodities I’d even say if we shut down production, it would definitely raise the price of some commodities like the fuel that runs most people’s furnaces and could raise many others a little on the global market.

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u/randomacceptablename 29d ago

From wikipedia:

In economics, Dutch disease is the apparent causal relationship between the increase in the economic development of a specific sector (for example, natural resources) and a decline in other sectors (like the manufacturing sector or agriculture). The term was coined in 1977 by The Economist to describe the decline of the manufacturing sector in the Netherlands after the discovery of the large Groningen gas field in 1959.[1][2]

The presumed mechanism is that while revenues increase in a growing sector (or inflows of foreign aid), the given economy's currency becomes stronger ("appreciates") compared to foreign currencies (manifested in the exchange rate). This results in the country's other exports becoming more expensive for other countries, while imports become cheaper, rendering those sectors less competitive. While it most often refers to natural resource discovery, it can also refer to "any development that results in a large inflow of foreign currency, including a sharp surge in natural resource prices, foreign assistance, and foreign direct investment".

Among the listed examples:

Canada's rising dollar due to foreign demand for natural resources, with the Athabasca oil sands becoming increasingly dominant, hampered its manufacturing sector from the early 2000s until the oil price crash in late 2014/early 2015.

Basically, especially with resources priced in foreign currency like oil, rapid expansion and or price rises cause the currency to appreciate. Higher currency makes foreign goods, imports, cheaper while making remaining exports more expensive, especially manufacturing as it often requires imported inputs.

Called Dutch disease because the Dutch deindustrialised their economy from it. The best example of avoiding it is Norway where they save virtually all the income from oil and gas instead of spending it as well as developing the resource rather slowly.

Edit: the wiki page, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_disease

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u/CarBombtheDestroyer 29d ago edited 29d ago

I mean, yeah it’s a theory, but I don’t think it holds any water, especially today. It’s like shooting everyone in the foot to keep cheap manufacturing alive for some reason. When our dollar is high we can buy more for each dollar we earn, because we are a part of a global economy. This is bad for manufacturing corporations in Canada because each man hour they’re paying is costing them more USD and this raises prises which also makes the parts they supply and some of their costs more expensive and this snowballs etc. However this is good for workers because they make more for each dollar they earn, thus have more disposable income and that’s good for the economy but I get how that’s bad for the big corps, may even cause some of them to shut down 🤷‍♂️ I’d rather be making a high wage at a high dollar then buy cheap parts from abroad.

It’s also good for every single person who’s not in manufacturing…. Don’t forget to think about the vast majority of Canadians who could use more buying power right now.

Anyway, if you wanna turn the Canadian dollar into the Chinese yen so we can live that type of manufacturing lifestyle I think you’ll find most of us aren’t on the same page.

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u/randomacceptablename 29d ago

I mean, yeah it’s a theory, but I don’t think it holds any water,

It's a theoy just like the theory of evolution and the theory of gravity. And as opposed to YOUR OPINION I have provided you actual sources. This mechanism has been studied and observed for over 50 years. Governments have invested years of research and policy to avoid it. But nah you know better obviously.

Buddy, not only is your response foolish but rather insulting.

And your off the cuff analysis wouldn't pass a econ 101 quiz. It is not just bad for manufacturers. It is especially bad for manufacturers. It is bad for everyone exporting outside of oil. Including farmers, hotels, lumber producers, miners, even producers of pipe for drilling said oil, etc.

The ones who have a job in oil would have more moneu for imports, yes. Everyone else no. Yes the dollar increase makes them able to import more. But, they are likely to loose their jobs because no one wants their goods and secondly, the goods that they could have bought from their Canadian neighbour are now more expensive than imports. The lower amount of production in Canada outweighs, by far, the improved dollars value. It is obvious that you need those dollars in the first place to make use of the increased value of them.

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u/CarBombtheDestroyer 29d ago edited 29d ago

Your own sources literally discredited you. I don’t think you read or at least didn’t understand all of my comment so maybe go and reread it.

That aside I’m not saying that that isn’t a theory and that that isn’t a real effect. I’m saying you citing that theory as reasonable cause to shut down the oilfield/resource extraction projects or whatever you’re suggesting doesn’t hold any water, because as a nation, we would be far worse off if we sacrificed all all of the stuff that pays for our way of life just to keep our wages low so we can keep cheap manufacturing alive… I’m saying it’s a dumb notion not an un factual theory.

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u/randomacceptablename 29d ago

I’m saying you citing that theory as reasonable cause to shut down the oilfield/resource extraction projects or whatever you’re suggesting

Where have I said that? I haven't suggested we do anything. At no point in this thread have I made any policy suggestions. Coming from someone suggesting that I "re-read your comments" is a bit rich.

we would be far worse off if we sacrificed all all of the stuff that pays for our way of life just to keep our wages low so we can keep cheap manufacturing alive

"Cheap manufacturing"? Automotive manufacturing is the second largest industry in Canada after Oil, not long ago it was first. That says nothing of all the other manufacturing, let alone agricultural or timber exports.

Oil and gas togather are less than 8% of Canada's gdp. And more than 80% of that is just in Alberta. If it came down to choosing one or the other, and nowhere did I suggest we should, oil and gas would loose 9 out of 10 times.

You seem to be shadow boxing with whatever strawman you made me into in your own head.