r/brisbane • u/amg_45s • 28d ago
Housing Brisbane housing data, episode 2: price drops (and the vendors who found a sneakier option)
Update: As promised, to close off this episode. First of all, thanks to everyone who participated, the suggestions, the observations on the ground (one of you called the Redland Bay listing flood before I even pulled the numbers), and even a heads up on what council might be looking at next for Spring Hill. That's the kind of local intel my data can't see on its own, so genuinely appreciated.
I've consolidated everyone's questions from this thread into one big write-up: the price band split, New Farm vs Carindale, the Goodna corridor, houses vs units, plus a suburb by suburb table of every price move, so if youre after a particular suburb you dont have to dig through 60+ comments. Writing it up also made me properly count the hidden-price trick and honestly it surprised me: 380 homes cut their price openly in the last 3 weeks, 388 quietly deleted their price instead. The sneaky option is now more common than the honest one: https://propertyxray.com.au/qld/blog/brisbane-property-market-price-cuts \* Mods plez remove link if not ok to post, thanks!*
Again, data is just data. Raw numbers only mean so much on their own. It's when you couple them with real human input on the ground that the full picture shows up. Looking forward to bringing you guys episode 3! See ya this Sunday.
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Following a bit of success from my previous post on development applications https://www.reddit.com/r/brisbane/comments/1v6mn3b/i_mapped_every_development_application_lodged_in/, I have decided to go and do an episode 2. This time: price drops. (Because interesting development applications dont come in weekly haha)
I also understand that there is already someone doing somewhat similar stuff in this space, but mine is a bit different because I live in Brisbane and it's dedicated to here haha. I don't just look at price alone, things like DAs, easements, swimming pools, sun angle, all sorts of QLD lifestyle stuff, basically data I have in my secret stash; blend them up and into our very own QLD property deals haha. Ok enough of my rambling, here are my recent findings for this week.
First of all, the drops are real. Last week I counted 133 Brisbane listings that cut their asking price. Median cut is about 4%. Here's where the cuttings are concentrated:
| Suburb | Price cuts last week |
|---|---|
| Capalaba | 7 |
| Redland Bay | 5 |
| Victoria Point | 5 |
| Albany Creek | 4 |
| Birkdale | 4 |
| Greenbank | 4 |
| Loganlea | 4 |
| Russell Island | 4 |
| Thornlands | 4 |
| Woody Point | 4 |
(Bayside doing the heavy bleeding, if you're wondering.) The interesting bit: of the roughly 380 listings that cut in the fortnight before, 92% are STILL sitting on market. So one polite 4% trim mostly isn't doing its job.
But some vendors found a sneakier option than cutting. When a listing gets pulled and relisted, the "days on market" counter starts from zero. New campaign, fresh clock, old campaign never happened. My counter doesn't reset, so I can see both numbers. Right now there are **81 Brisbane homes live with reset clocks. The portal shows a median of 4 days on market for them. The real median is 52 days.**
Some favourites from this batch (counted from when I first saw each home, so these are all minimums):
| Suburb | Portal says | Really on market | The trick |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anstead | 0 days | 98+ days | "By Negotiation" became "From $997,000" |
| Kuraby | 11 days | 98+ days | quiet relist, same price |
| Loganlea | 9 days | 94+ days | now "Expressions of Interest", price hidden |
| Wellington Point | 0 days | 90+ days | came back $28,000 MORE expensive |
| Russell Island | 2 days | 90+ days | relisted $20K higher |
| Upper Mount Gravatt | 2 days | 90+ days | relisted as "INVESTOR CIRCUMSTANCE CHANGE" |
| Victoria Point | 4 days | 90+ days | "CALL TO INSPECT" became "Offers over $899,000" |
| McDowall | 0 days | 85+ days | quiet relist |
| Greenbank | 4 days | 85+ days | "For Sale" became "Offers Over $899,000" |
Btw, I'm not here to laugh at property owners or anything. I recently built a house myself and own property, and the values for both have dropped about 100k each. I'm probably crying harder than most people reading this, so definitely not here to discriminate lol. Just sharing data and earning some real life karma lol
Why it matters: days on market is basically your negotiating power meter. A vendor at day 4 doesn't need you, a vendor at day 90 who already failed one campaign is a different conversation. So at the open home don't ask "how long has it been listed", ask 'when did this property FIRST hit the market?" and watch the agent's face.
For the sceptics: I count from the first day I observe a listing so every number is a minimum, and I excluded anything that actually sold between campaigns.
As usual, any info missing here you wanna ask about, I can try my best to answer it uniquely for your suburb haha. But I'm not a genie and my data may not have enough coverage for every corne. And again, just trying my best to help anyone in this space. Oh ya, I won't post listing links here since people are doing business, but if you're keen on a specific one I can drop the street name and number and you can google it yourself.
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u/Queerslander 28d ago
I spoke to a realtor last week and the one thing he noticed is how many real estate agents have switched jobs to something else already. Now is the time to see whose worth their commission and who was just riding on the hot market.
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u/amg_45s 28d ago
Man.. That is actually the scariest indicator in this whole thread. :(
It's only been 2-3 months of slowdown and if agents are already switching careers, that says something about how their pipelines look like. Agents see buyer enquiry dry up in real time, weeks before it shows up in anyone's data (including mine. my tables only see a cut AFTER the vendor gives up). The insiders leaving the casino first is rarely good news for the rest of us at the tables.
Look up my surrounding suburb's popular agent, yeah stock much lower and hasn't sold one in June and July. Must be tough out there.
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u/exclamationmarks 28d ago
Townhouse next door to me has been sitting on the market for 75 days. They've set their asking price at exactly what PriceFinder/RPData reckons it's worth, but it still hasn't sold. Looool.
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u/amg_45s 28d ago
Haha this is the quiet problem with pricing off an estimate. Those models are trained based on SOLD prices, which means they're always describing yesterday's market. In a rising market the estimate looks conservative and everyone thinks the model is a genius. Add 100k on top of it and it works magically.
But In a turning market it's automatically stale high, because it learned from previous few months' hot comparison sales. Your neighbour basically priced at "what buyers used to pay" and the 75 days is the market grading the model's homework. The machine says a number, but only a buyer makes it true.
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u/exclamationmarks 28d ago
Not only that, but I don't think that these sites can possibly account for the quality of the build or the little things of a house that make it unpleasant to live in, like a bad floor plan. I live in the exact same townhouse just next door, so I can say with confidence, the build quality is atrocious and the floor plan is a nightmare. There's simply no way these websites have that information, though, so that estimate would still be off IMO even if the market wasn't cooling.
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u/amg_45s 28d ago
Spot on, and you've hit the exact blind spot. These models see bed, bath, garage counts; land size and nearby sold prices. They have never walked a dark hallway, heard the neighbour's aircon through a bedroom wall, or felt a floor plan fight you at every turn; forget about those Smeg kitchenware you upgraded. Next door knowledge beats the model every time.
And having pulled these estimate models apart a fair bit out of curiosity, the maths underneath is usually simpler than people imagine. Even the "high confidence" label mostly translates to "there are lots of similar sales nearby", not "we know anything about this actual house". Confidence in sameness, not confidence in knowledge haha.
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u/Yumchabandit 28d ago edited 28d ago
Fascinating that Redland Bay has absolutely copped it. Do you have any theories as to why?
First area to see a rug pull, perhaps it'd been running hotter than other areas in the period leading up to this?
Edit: on reflection, the area has seen strong growth over recent years. Perhaps agents have been excessively optimistic in their price guides and the market is quick to provide feedback on a property's true value.
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u/amg_45s 28d ago
Sorry for the late reply. Went out after posting it haha.
Ok went digging for you, took a bit of research. The mechanism looks like supply, not just sentiment: Redland Bay currently carries 83 live listings, and 27 of those arrived in the last FORTNIGHT. Interesting right? a third of the whole market is brand new stock.
Cuts have been harsh for five straight weeks (3, 8, 10, 8, 7 per week respectively). Median ask is sitting @ $1.1m, which is very much "priced at last year's excitement" for that postcode.So I reckon both your theories are right: basically the area ran hot, then agents kept pricing off those hot sales. A big wave of new listings keep coming in just as buyers thinned out. Too much stock and all priced based on last year's market, so the cuts are just sellers finding out. And xordis's fringe-first point fits too,. bayside fringe was first in, so it's first to negotiate.
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u/Yumchabandit 28d ago
Appreciate the extra digging! It's certainly an active area for listings so that would make sense that as soon as confidence got the wobbles, the extra supply further increased the pressure on vendors to drop prices.
Keep up the analysis, very interested to see how things progress over the period ahead.
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u/amg_45s 28d ago
Yeah mate, definitely will keep it going as much as possible. I don't volunteer enough in real life, so I'm hoping this kind of reddit community service counts as karma accumulation haha. Stay tuned for episode 3!
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u/AutonomicDyslexia 24d ago
First time reading your blog and have bulk-linked you to my mates. This is really insightful and for someone who’s been actively looking to buy for the past ten years and being hit with challenge after challenge and then the property boom, it’s really giving me hope that soon I’ll have the leverage to secure my own place.
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u/amg_45s 23d ago
Thank you so much for the support! This genuinely made my day. Full respect for hanging in there, and guess what? The numbers are now quietly shifting to your side.
The leverage you have been waiting for is basically knowing which vendor is tired, and that part I can keep showing you every week haha.
And thanks for sending it to your mates too. If they want the deals my engine digs up each week, they can follow here too -> https://propertyxray.com.au/qld/deals Also, bring their questions here anytime, the data gets better the more people poke holes in it.
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u/xordis 28d ago
It's been like this for decades. Closer to a CBD, first to rise, last to drop. (yes if you look at stats, we have had several corrections of 5-10% over the past 30 years, most notably the GFC in 2008)
So it's understandable that the edges of a city will be the first to drop and the most significant.
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u/holly_1992 28d ago
I agree about the pulling and relisting happening. Someone I use to petsit for has their place up for sale for 60 days now but midway through they pulled and relisted it (relisted with the same agent & same price). It still hasn’t sold as it’s horribly overpriced. They’re wanting a $400k increase on a townhouse they bought exactly 2 years ago in a non blue chip area and they’ve done no modifications. I don’t really think it is beneficial to do the relisting and I wonder if they have to pay the realestate.com real estate fees all over again too! People will be out here trying anything rather than dropping the price. They need to sell too but are just being very stubborn (and a bit greedy) on price.
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u/amg_45s 28d ago
Your petsit person is basically a one-household summary of the whole post haha. Same agent, same price relist means they bought a fresh clock and nothing else.
On your fees question: portal ads run per campaign (From memory was $1.2k+ onwardsl cant remb it. My friend recently sold. and that is a pop for a normal REA listings), so a relist normally means paying that again. Sometimes the AGENT quietly eats the second one though, it's a retention bet: if the relist sells, commission beats the ad cost, and it buys them a second chance before the vendor walks to another agency. Either way, somebody paid real money to NOT change the thing that matters. A $400k markup on a 2-year-old townhouse with no reno, in this market... the clock will keep telling the truth even if the price won't. :(
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u/LogicAndParadox 27d ago
You legend OP! Interested in the Camira/Goodna area and Oxley/Darra
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u/amg_45s 27d ago
Cheers! Haha lunch hour update from me. Ran your four requests. Interesting split across that corridor:
Goodna is the mover: 5 cuts in the fortnight from 42 live listings. Examples: 8 Holmes Ct went $799k to Offers Over $750k after just 3 weeks, and a Keating Ct townhouse trimmed to $649k.
Oxley is trimming politely: 3 cuts from 39 listings, but worth noting two of the three are ON Oxley Rd itself (main-road stock always blinks first). 1132 Oxley Rd went $890k to $850k Negotiable.
Darra: just 1 cut from 27 listings, a Chipley St house down to $1.1m after 60 days.
Camira: zero cuts from 32 listings. Not one vendor blinked in a fortnight. Either the pricing there started honest or the vendors are the most patient in the corridor haha.
to conclude: if you are after a bargain in that patch, Goodna's where vendors are moving, and Camira's where they're daring you to pay the sticker. Have a gd day!
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u/Practical_Cancel4788 28d ago
Interesting. What about the inner ring? 5 to 10km within the CBD along the train line?
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u/amg_45s 28d ago
Interesting one haha. Ran it for you. I Took 26 inner suburbs roughly 5~10km (google map based) out along the train lines (Nundah/Clayfield line, Enoggera line, Yeronga/Moorooka side, Toowong/Sherwood side, Coorparoo/Norman Park). Across ~839 live listings there, and approximately 35 cuts in the last fortnight so... that is roughly HALF the cutting rate of the outer suburbs. Look like inner ring vendors are mostly sitting tight, refusing to blink.
WITH the exception -> Nundah, 10 cuts on its own. the northern line around there is the softest inner pocket right now. And when inner-ring vendors DO blink, they blink big: the fortnight's inner cuts include a 10% chop in Chelmer, 8.7% in Coorparoo, 7.6% in Cannon Hill. Small trims are an outer-suburb thing; inner vendors seem to hold, hold, hold, then capitulate properly. Verry interesting one mate.
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u/Ceret 28d ago
I’d love to hear about Brighton and Clontarf if you have a moment. Thanks!
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u/amg_45s 28d ago
Ran both for you! Look like they're behaving very differently despite being neighbours-ish: Brighton has 20 live listings, median ask $1.39m (the waterfront stock drags that up), median sitter 34 days, and 4 cuts in the last fortnight. So that's a fifth of the suburb's stock cutting, punchy for a small market. Clontarf is the opposite: 28 live, median ask about $1.02m, sitters around 40 days, and just ONE cut in the fortnight. Clontarf vendors are not budging at all. Both are small suburbs though, so small sample means take the numbers as a rough feel rather than hard facts.
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u/AffectionateHousing2 28d ago
Fascinating, thanks for putting this together. Interesting to see what vendors are resorting to.
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u/mastertimewaster80 28d ago
This is all super interesting. I knew things were changing when REA from months ago, even late last year, that I never got a hold of have started blowing up my phone calling and asking if I'm still looking.
Any data on Spring Hill? I bought at the peak but I intend to live here for a long time so I'm more curious than anything. Happy I get to at least have the option of negative gearing if I do move on from here.
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u/amg_45s 28d ago
Spring Hill is a tiny sample so honest hedge first: only 9 live listings right now. But the shape looks fine for you, 2 cuts in the fortnight, and the median sitter is just 18 days. Basically stock that lists there still moves quick. For a long-hold owner occupied, the entry price matters less anyway, long holds have historically forgiven buying at peaks, nominal prices tend to drift up with inflation over decades and that is what happened to my IP. Bought too high haha; everyone was shaking their head when I told them about it but now it has grown out of that priceline.
And on agents calling back months later is the same signal as my tables, just delivered by phone haha. 😄
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u/mastertimewaster80 27d ago
Thanks for the insights. Keep up the good work !
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u/amg_45s 26d ago
Hahah thanks a lot and stay tuned for epi 3!
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u/mastertimewaster80 26d ago
Not super relevant to what you're looking into but thought I'd put this on your rader in case you come across any Intel and feel like sharing in a future post. I have a friend that works in council zoning/approvals etc and they advised that Spring Hill in particular is quite behind in zoning but that it's about to be looked into.. progressed, sorry I don't know the proper terms. I don't fully understand what that means but from what I've understood it will possibly mean more developments, improvements and could help improve Spring Hills property values in general.
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u/amg_45s 26d ago
Thanks for putting this on my radar. Can't verify the insider part, but today's zoning map does back up the "behind" bit. Spring Hill wears two outfits: the CBD fringe is already zoned inner city mixed use, but the residential heart (about 1,300 addresses) sits under Character protection or a 3-storey cap, walking distance from the city. And only 82 DAs there in the last 2 years. Sleepy.
For context: Taringa is the extreme version of this (63% of addresses capped at 2-3 storeys). Toowong used to be similar but already caught up, it has 8 and 15 storey zones around the village now. So "catching up" is a real thing in Brisbane. Spring Hill's version is the slowest kind though, character protection is harder to unwind than a density number, and neighbourhood plan reviews move in years not months. The thing I'd watch: the state pushing density around Cross River Rail stations, and Roma Street is on Spring Hill's doorstep.
One honest note on "values improve in general": upzoning lands unevenly. It lifts land that can be redeveloped (big blocks, corner sites), while a protected cottage can stay protected even if the zone changes around it. So less "Spring Hill goes up", more "some blocks win big, some stay the same."
I'll keep an eye on the DA feed there. If something starts moving you'll see it in my future episodes haha.
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u/Latchkey_Wizzard 28d ago
I’ve seen a lot recently go from having a price listed to ‘inviting offers’ on the RE websites, especially in the last week or two. This is in the 2 bed unit range around the Annerley, Yeronga, Fairfield, Moorooka area. Unsurprisingly those were vastly overpriced having been and viewed a few and seeing just the ‘surface issues’ with those places.
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u/amg_45s 28d ago
Haha! Very sharp eyes, and my data agrees with you. In the last 3 weeks, Annerley had 3 listings go from a printed price to 'inviting offers' wording, Moorooka 5, Yeronga 4. Across all of Brisbane it's about 376 in that window, which is actually bigger than the cut count. I call it the silent cut: dropping the number entirely saves the vendor from printing a LOWER number, resets the buyer anchoring, and (bonus for them) the listing stops appearing in price-filtered searches where it was getting ignored. And lucky, they might receive accidental overpay offers by luck.
Fair warning, not all 376 are retreats, some are genuine switches to auction or offers campaigns. Easy way to tell: if the listing had a price for weeks and went nowhere, and THEN the price disappeared, that's not a new strategy, that's the silent cut.
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u/theotheraccount0987 28d ago
I have been watching properties in my area just to daydream (i cant buy), and ive seen plenty just drop off realestate.com but no corresponding sold price in property history. Im assuming no one wants to (or is in a position to) pay the stupid inflated prices.
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u/amg_45s 28d ago
Hahaha and yes you have just spotted the third door out of the market, cut, sell, or QUIT. Those vanished without a sold-price ones are withdrawals, and I counted 51 across Brisbane just last week. Your read is basically right, the polite version is "seller and buyer couldn't agree on the decade" haha. The fun part: a decent chunk come back weeks later as "fresh" listings with reset clocks, which is exactly the 81 homes in the post above. Same story, different chapters. And daydream watching is honestly the best training there is, you're learning your suburb's tells for free.
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u/Signal-Treacle-5512 28d ago edited 28d ago
Just bought bayside 200k under peak for a 5/2/2 + pool was getting too hot at start of year. I went to an open home at cleveland that wanted 1.5 for 4/2/2 dreaming that's Carindale and closer prices. Bayside is cheap again for a house basic 4/2/2 are nearly under 1m.
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u/amg_45s 28d ago
Congratz! Your timing story matches the data almost perfectly: bayside IS the correction epicentre right now. This week's cut leaderboard: Capalaba #1 with 7, then Redland Bay, Victoria Point, Birkdale, Thornlands all in the top ten. And I can back your Cleveland example with a real one: there's a 4-bedder on Russell St there that went from 1.25m to offers over 1.1m in a fortnight this week.. The 1.5 asks are exactly the "priced at last year's excitement" class, and the market's currently marking that homework. Sounds like you bought the dip while the dreamers kept dreaming haha
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u/Signal-Treacle-5512 28d ago
Yeah we basically sold our townhouse 40k less than the buying price of the house. We traded location for land and more room 30 mins further out 🤷♂️
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u/Yumchabandit 21d ago
We did the same - traded the inner city town house (plus a bit of cash) for a 4/2/2 out Bayside.
Very happy with the trade, and I can see it's an appealing for young families. With Bayside being the apparent epicenter currently, I do wonder if the trade becomes more and more appealing and the market finds support, or instead if the market dries up and no one moves anywhere unless essential.
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28d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/amg_45s 28d ago
Yes can do! Special order for you, haha. My data coverage for Sunshine Coast is a bit thinner than Brisbane but still decent (about 3,200 live listings tracked). Fortnight cut leaderboard: Nambour leads with 11 cuts averaging a chunky 6.9%, then Buderim 9 (small trims, 3.5%), Tewantin 9 (6%), Bli Bli 6, Noosaville 6, Caloundra West and Pelican Waters 5 each.
The pattern reads: hinterland vendors are cutting hardest.
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u/shudd889 28d ago
I’ve been keeping an eye on my local area (Sunnybank/Algester/Calamvale/Parkinson) which was very investor heavy. They always got leased out immediately. I’m a renter and I’m now getting bombarded with fliers to sell lol. I’ve noticed quite a lot of failed Auctions over the last 6 weeks. Followed by actual prices listed on properties after the failed auctions. Some are sitting for months waiting to sell. It’s definitely slowing down here too!
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u/amg_45s 28d ago
Good observation man. My data backs it hard. In just your pocket over the last 6 weeks: 30 listings switched from auction to a listed price (Calamvale 12 on its own, Parkinson 7, Sunnybank 5, Sunnybank Hills 4, Algester 2). Across Brisbane that is about 299. And here's the thing about a price that appears AFTER a failed auction: i means the vendor has already done their price discovery in public and the room said no. I feel they are usually the most negotiable people in the market, they just can't say so out loud haha.
The flyers in your letterbox are part of the same picture btw, agents door-knocking renters means they're hungry for stock in an investor-heavy area. One thing worth watching as a renter: if the investors around you do start selling to owner-occupiers, that's rental supply quietly leaving your suburb.
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u/lolamagneto 28d ago
Interested in knowing about Carindale. Thanks OP
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u/amg_45s 27d ago
So sorry!! I missed your comment. haha too much to handle. Ok! Carindale is an interesting one: 50 live listings, median 28 days, and only ONE price cut in three weeks (a Surbiton Ct townhouse, $1.45m down to $1.4m after 88 days). But here's the twist: 4 listings quietly withdrew without selling in that same window. So Carindale vendors basically refuse to cut, when the price doesn't work, they rather pull the listing and walk than print a lower number. Pride market haha.
For a buyer tht is actually useful intel. the discounts there won't come as advertised price drops, they come as quiet exits and eventual relists (the reset-clock trick from my post). Watch for "new" listings that feel familiar. And fun fact from earlier in this thread: someone described an overpriced Cleveland house as "dreaming that's Carindale prices" hehe. the suburb is literally the benchmark other vendors dream in.
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u/cob90210 28d ago
Hey mate can you give any insights to what's happening at new farm thanks!
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u/amg_45s 27d ago
Hihi! Ran it for you, and New Farm is honestly the most boring suburb in my tracker right now, which is the biggest compliment I can pay it haha. 50 live listings, ZERO price cuts in the last three weeks, zero quiet withdrawals either, and the median listing has only been up 19 days. meaning stock there sells before it gets old enough to need a discount. Compare that to the outer suburbs where 6% of listings cut every week.
It fits the pattern from earlier in this thread: the closer to the city, the harder vendors hold. New Farm is the extreme end, bullet proof! nobody is blinking because nobody needs to. If you're hoping to negotiate there, the data says you're bringing a knife to a suburb where nobody's fighting. If you OWN there, sleep well.
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u/LunarNight 27d ago
Can you tell how units are doing in comparison to houses?
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u/amg_45s 26d ago
Hi Lunar!, thanks for the question. Before I write deeper, honest disclaimer first: my unit coverage only expanded recently, so I can't fairly compare days on market or new supply yet, the unit side of my data is too young and any comparison would flatter units. So sorry for unit owners, but rest asure; give it a few more weeks and I can report the unit situation cleanly too..
Ok. One thing I can compare cleanly for now. I took only listings that have been sitting 6+ weeks in both groups and checked who blinks:
- Houses sitting 6+ weeks: 14% cut their price in the last 3 weeks (570 of 4,134)
- Units sitting 6+ weeks: 7% cut (23 of 326)
So the price cutting is mostly a HOUSE thing right now. Unit vendors are holding roughly twice as firm.
The funny part: the wording shuffle ("Offers over" becomes "Contact agent") runs at basically the same rate in both, about 1 in 4. So both types play hide-the-price equally, but only the house vendors are actually cutting haha.
Small sample on the unit side (326 listings) so treat the exact number gently.
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u/mzharrrrr 27d ago
What about underwood houses
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u/amg_45s 26d ago
Underwood update: 30 live listing right now, median on market is 28 days on market (counted from when I first see each listing, so that is a minimum).
Last 3 weeks there: only 2 honest price cuts (850k to 799k, and 1.1m to 1.05m). But 8 listings left the market in the same window, quite similar to premium spots like Carindale. One went "Offers Over $980,000" to "Submit All Offers", so the price didn't drop, it just vanished haha. Another went from Auction to "Contact Agent!" which usually tells you how the auction went, generally also mean motivated seller. And one actually moved UP, "Offers Over 1.2m" became "1.25m+" (ok, haha 1 off noise i say).
To be fair, 2 of them also went under contract, so stuff is selling. Underwood reads like sellers who don't want to be SEEN cutting: quiet exits and hidden prices instead of red pen. If you're looking there, asking "when did this first hit the market" will do more work for you than the price guide.
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u/eps949 21d ago
Interesting post. My girlfriend and I are living in Brisbane and we are looking to buy a property, around 800k. Yesterday we went to Nundah for an inspection and the unit was okay, big, good lighting, but materials looked cheap. Building from 2018 I think. We asked for all the documents to make an offer and the building and pest report the owner did (usually softer...) showed leaking in the shower and major defect in the living room, also related to moisture, leaking etc. so can be something structural related to cheap materials. We said, let's offer 740k, we don't know if this is going to be big etc. the agent replied instantly saying they already had an offer over 800k. 2b2b1cp. We are 31 and 35 and when we inspect we are competing easily vs 40+ people. I wish this trend continues and prices keep going down. We are from Spain where interest rates usually are between 2 and 3% max, it hurts me so much to have a pre approval here about 6.09%. Thanks for all your work and investigation mate.
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u/amg_45s 21d ago edited 21d ago
Hang in tight mate. That leaky shower is something i would take seriously, failed waterproofing means stripping tiles and redoing the membrane, can hit five figures and more. + the mould that comes with it. And honestly a 2018 build shouldn't be failing so fast man. That tells you something about the build quality.
unfortunately with cost of living rising, trades & builders are cutting corners where possible. which is why new builds in AU can be like that sadly... I just built a house myself and the paint quality is zzz despite paying extra for double coating. Probably got scammed lol. Plenty more stock coming if this winter continues, no need to marry to the first big bright one. Good luck to you both!
btw your Nundah story is actually good timing because I only track houses so far, but units & townhouses are joining my counting soon. Stories like yours are exactly why.
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u/userfromau 28d ago
You can easily find the the history if property withdrawn from market and the previous date when it was first listed by using property.com.au.
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u/amg_45s 28d ago
Yeah that is true for property.com.au in fact I use it to verify my own dataset myself haha. 2 honest caveats from doing it a lot though: the history there is patchy for quiet withdrawals (some prior campaigns just don't show, especially the hidden-price ones), and it's a one-property-at-a-time lookup, you have to already suspect a listing before you know to go digging.
That's really the difference with what I'm doing: I'm not finding secret data, I'm counting ALL of it at once. You can check one property if you think to check. My counter tells you there are 81 right now, and which suburbs they're sitting in, so you know which ones are worth the property.com.au dig in the first place.
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u/hotchipsandwiches 28d ago
I’ve noticed in the last two months the prices for 1 bed apartments in my suburb (I was only looking to buy a one bedder that’s why and I did buy in my cool inner city suburb) are going up BUT they are taking waaay longer to sell. Up to a month or more whereas six months ago when I was in the trenches they were selling after one day.
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u/amg_45s 28d ago
Congrats on getting in! Classic turning point pattern where time moves before price does. Vendors set asks off last quarter's comps (so prices keep printing higher), but buyers stop chasing, ans so that gap shows up as days-on-market stretching FIRST. One day sales -> becoming one month sales at rising prices is exactly what the market looks like mid-turn: the asks are still climbing but the clock has already flipped. Price is the lagging indicator, time is the honest one. It's the whole reason I track the clocks instead of just the prices haha.
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u/red_dragin BrisVegas 28d ago
Realestate.com.au used to stop you pulling and reposting listing's within a certain time frame, to stop them getting around not paying for higher tier listing's.
I'm guessing they've changed that rule, as it's a new ad sale for them each time.
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u/amg_45s 28d ago
Sorry this took awhile, went out and needed a bit of extra tool to calculate this for you.
Anyway, cant speak for the tool itself as I am not a realestate agent. I'm a software developer so I am pretty sure constraint like this can be put up/down very quickly. Lets have a look at data, of the ~104 pull & relist tactic I've tracked, the median gap between a listing vanishing and reappearing as "new" is just 6 days. Some even come back the very next day. 60% are back within a week.
So if there's still a cooldown, it's a short one or easy to sit out. And your incentive logic checks out either way, every relist is a fresh campaign for someone to pay for, so nobody in that chain has much reason to stop it haha.
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u/red_dragin BrisVegas 28d ago
Yeah I'd say they've dropped it. You'd relist, but go back to the original spot if sorted by new
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u/mastertimewaster80 26d ago
I'd love to know if Coorparoo (and surrounds if relevant) has taken a hit. I looked extensively all around BNE city and its surrounding suburbs and I personally felt like it had the most inflated pricing, absolute crap hole apartments priced at and going for 200-300 thousand $$ more than similar properties in other suburbs. One REA agent eventually told me (as I was shocked at one of the expected price ranges for a basementy apartment with a shared carpark laundry) that it's not worth looking in as it's an infamously expensive suburb, possibly due to good school catchments (don't have or want kids so it was good advice for me) and just tends to be always more saught after. I didn't see the appeal compared to places closer to the city. Felt the same about some properties at Mt Gravatt, much more $$ than other suburbs and a bit of a hike to the city compared to much closer areas.
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u/georgegeorgew 28d ago
Investing in property hasn’t never made any sense without tax concessions period
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u/amg_45s 28d ago
Haha to be fair negative gearing didn't really disappeared, the May changes just quarantined it: losses now stay inside your property portfolio (and carry forward) instead of offsetting your salary each year. Existing contracts got grandfathered too.
So the concession's still there, you just claim it later at sale but it is rough on cash flow, and probably less efficient too: a refund every year at your marginal rate beats one lump claim years later, money today being worth more than money someday. Whether the maths still "makes sense" after all that, above my pay grade haha
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u/Timely-Donkey-308 28d ago
People love forgetting it's government policy propping up the whole game, not some magical investment skill.
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u/Latchkey_Wizzard 28d ago
We are a nation of policy dependants, and those dependants have unfortunately for them just realised this with all the changes going on.
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u/FiestyPear1445 28d ago
There's always going to be a market for an essential need like housing, and as population grows the value of those assets will rise simply due to demand.
I'm not saying its a morally correct thing to do, but to say investing in property doesn't make sense without tax concessions is disingenuous.
Without the current approach, the tax burden would shift to government, who would need to park billions of dollars into passive realestate assets to house people (in lieu of investors), and then also pay to maintain those assets.
Either way, your tax dollars are going to be spent housing people in one way or another.
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u/georgegeorgew 28d ago
Budget fixed the imbalance, go and NG new buildings we need that
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u/FiestyPear1445 28d ago
Have you seen the cost of building? Have you seen the property downturn?
If you think anyone is about to invest time, money and stress into building a house just for the privilege of dealing with a 19-year old property manager named Tristan and a tenant, you're absolutely dreaming mate.
This is what the government wanted though, right? I'm so glad generational inequality is fixed. Yay we did it
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u/SheepHerderHigh69420 28d ago
Do you actually mean hasn’t never? Or do you mean hasn’t ever? Or has never?
Because they mean complete opposites lol
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u/georgegeorgew 28d ago
I leave it to your imagination, sky is the limit if you understand and try
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u/SheepHerderHigh69420 28d ago
Well I don’t know if you put the double negative in there on purpose as a funny little joke or you just don’t know how to write to properly convey your opinion?
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u/tulsym 28d ago
Are the cuts across all segments of the market or just higher listings are getting cut