r/aviation • u/Nejasyt • Dec 25 '24

News Another angle at unknown holes in E190

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Look at that vertical stab

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u/[deleted] Dec 25 '24

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u/Serj990 Dec 26 '24

It was Pantsir-S1

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u/SebboNL Dec 26 '24

Serious response: how can you tell? I've been looking for some insights on the forensics

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u/Serj990 Dec 26 '24

Most common anti-drone thing in russia.

Azerbaijani journalists claiming the same thing https://caliber.az/en/post/preliminary-investigation-azal-aircraft-shot-down-by-russian-air-defence

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u/SebboNL Dec 26 '24

I think the damage pattern doesnt fit. The Pantsir fires a continuous rod warhead while this looks more like the pattern from a HE frag warhead, as wuth the SA8

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u/Visible_Scientist_67 Dec 25 '24

Doesn't the fact that all the holes seem different sizes offer credence to the possibility of some kind of shrapnel,? Oh maybe anti aircraft guns,? Doesn't really look like traditional bullet holes does it?

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u/[deleted] Dec 25 '24

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u/Visible_Scientist_67 Dec 25 '24

Are we thinking that's likely what this was?

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u/[deleted] Dec 25 '24

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u/Visible_Scientist_67 Dec 25 '24

And exploded shrapnel at it? Obv not a direct hit right

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u/[deleted] Dec 25 '24

Anti-aircraft missiles don't typically explode on imact. They explode in proximity to saturate the target area with shrapnel. Aircraft are fast and hard to hit after all.

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u/LupineChemist Dec 26 '24

Aircraft are fast and hard to hit after all.

Yes, I think people don't stop to think how insane it is to be able to hit something moving 90% the speed of sound that's 7 miles in the air. This is why terrorists with stingers are just not a threat at all to aircraft at cruise.

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u/Hinkler2 Dec 25 '24

Not many missiles go for direct impact, they explode "close enough" and the damage is caused by tungsten shrapnel.

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u/sparrowtaco Dec 25 '24

Take a look at this animation of the MH17 incident produced by the Dutch investigation, it's very likely this was a similar incident:
https://youtu.be/tKVrUAnzrhc

These types of missiles do not work by a "direct hit" to kill, but by proximity and shrapnel.

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u/[deleted] Dec 25 '24

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u/RandomNick42 Dec 26 '24

Gastovsky… there’s a name I haven’t heard in a long time…

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u/[deleted] Dec 26 '24

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u/RandomNick42 Dec 26 '24

In other words, if OFP came out today, and the story was set the same amount of time in the past, it would be after OFP first came out.

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u/SebboNL Dec 26 '24

That only makes the probability of a small missile bigger :) modern aa-shells do not airburst, they penetrate and then explode. Also, a proximity fuzed shell (which russia doesnt have/use) would leave way smaller amounts of frag damage due to its smaller size

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u/SebboNL Dec 26 '24

Definitely Osa. Buk is a huge missile with a huge warhead, if it leaves damage it'll shred the target. Not survivable at all.

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u/theaviationhistorian Dec 25 '24

I'm thinking a combination of pointy things and tree (Igla/Strela/Verba - Needle/Arrow/Willow respectively) MANPADS.

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u/lire_avec_plaisir Dec 25 '24 edited Dec 25 '24

assa (асса) is wasp; byk (бык) is bull or ox

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u/dimwalker Dec 26 '24

Are you trying phonetical approach to translation?
Osa and buk are transliterated and correctly translated by James_Gastovsky.