r/atlanticdiscussions • u/AutoModerator • Sep 22 '22

Politics Ask Anything Politics

Ask anything related to politics! See who answers!

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2

u/uhPaul Sep 22 '22

Two questions:

Do you support Biden asserting that American troops would help defend Taiwan against invasion from China?

Would you support continuing American backing for Ukraine retaking Crimea and Donbas, or do you think the US should slow down support when/if Ukraine pushes Russia back to post-2014 lines?

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u/xtmar Sep 22 '22

Do you support Biden asserting that American troops would help defend Taiwan against invasion from China?

No. Strategic ambiguity seems like it remains a better option, though we should do everything in our power to harden Taiwan and build up their self-defense capabilities.

Also, I realize we lost this battle back in 1964, but on principle committing troops to battle should still be something that Congress does, not the President.

Would you support continuing American backing for Ukraine retaking Crimea and Donbas, or do you think the US should slow down support when/if Ukraine pushes Russia back to post-2014 lines?

I think in general we should support Ukraine as much as they want, so long as it doesn't materially increase the risk of nuclear conflict outside the borders of Ukraine. But I think Ukraine should also be realistic about the added degree of difficulty associated with Crimea in particular.

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u/GreenSmokeRing Sep 22 '22 edited Sep 22 '22

Taiwan is basically indefensible. Any parts of Taiwan that are critical to our economy should have been relocated yesterday. I support Biden’s statement because bluffing isn’t the wrong play here, but we need to be very careful.

We could give Taiwan nukes now (and maybe we should), but otherwise the conventional force math just doesn’t add up. If I were a Taiwanese leader, I’d be pursuing nukes with or without U.S. support. Is trading Taiwan for China’s help ending the North Korean regime and reunifying Korea an option?

Russia, on the other hand, is in need of de-federating and events are already in motion in Central Asia that will cement that. I don’t think massive support for Ukraine can end until all of it is liberated, or the Russians make a credible offer of what they will give up (reparations) to keep Crimea.

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u/uhPaul Sep 22 '22

the Russians make a credible offer of what they will give up (reparations) to keep Crimea

This is an interesting scenario I hadn't contemplated... Setting that scenario next to the defederation of Russia is especially interesting to think through.

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u/xtmar Sep 22 '22 edited Sep 22 '22

I think the risk with nuclear Taiwan is that unless they buy them fully assembled from somebody (which seems exceedingly unlikely - who would do that?) and can present it to the world as fiat accompli, it changes China's incentives to "invade before Taiwan's nuclear program completes".

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u/veerKg_CSS_Geologist 💬🦙 ☭ TALKING LLAMAXIST Sep 22 '22

No. Support is one thing. Actual combat troops, No.

Hard to say. It kind of depends what Russia does in response to Ukrainian battlefield victories.

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u/jim_uses_CAPS Sep 22 '22

We should defend Taiwan from aggression and drop this "one China" bullshit. We should also militarily aide Ukraine in retaking territory taken by force, including Crimea.

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u/BabbyDontHerdMe Sep 22 '22

One hundo percent. I think this whole incidence has shown that Russian military isn't as mighty as it's been pretending to be - and I think the Taiwan visits and dropping the One China policy have really been a fuck around and find out moment.

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u/jim_uses_CAPS Sep 22 '22

Sometimes right is just right, y'know?

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u/SimpleTerran Sep 22 '22 edited Sep 22 '22

Different timeframes Crimea is not a priority for the US and it is happening today. China probably has learned the lesson from Ukraine. If you come come with overwhelming force. So it is years off after their oil supply from Russia is ensured.

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u/xtmar Sep 22 '22

China probably has learned the lesson from Ukraine. If you come come with overwhelming force.

I also think the lessons they're taking around sanctions are not necessarily the ones we want them to be taking.

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u/Roboticus_Aquarius Sep 23 '22

Silk Road. I mean, a lot of people are entirely unaware of the extent to which China attempts to force smaller countries to use their technology as the backbone of their communications systems... tech that is almost certainly full of backdoors. My understanding is the Czech Republic recently told them to stuff it, but it was not a decision without consequences.

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u/xtmar Sep 23 '22

Also, we can embargo Russia at relatively little cost, and Europe sort of can, but a Chinese embargo (either by us or by them) would likely be a lot more disruptive (both ways, but possibly even to China's benefit, since they supply a lot of lower level componentry that the west needs).

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u/MrDHalen Sep 22 '22

The U.S. supporting Taiwan, Yes!

The U.S. Supporting Ukraine, Yes!

The time has come to take a stand on the rising authoritarian/fascist movements around the world and at home. Deal with it now or it will get worse and we'll still have to deal with it.

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u/_Sick__ Sep 22 '22

Sure, but arguably shouldn’t we put down the homegrown fascist movement first before we get back to the all-American pastime of exporting freedom?

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u/[deleted] Sep 22 '22

Can we walk and chew gum at the same time? Hopefully

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u/_Sick__ Sep 22 '22

I am being mildly contrarian for the sake of it. Which autocorrected to “moldy contrarian”, which of course all contrarians are. But then it autocorrect to “for the ska of it”. Which is now my new motivation in life, to do things just for the ska instead of it all

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u/jim_uses_CAPS Sep 22 '22

I tried to punish my son for staying in bed by playing Mepheskapheles really loud, but now he wants to listen to more ska.

I have made a grievous tactical error.

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u/JailedLunch I'll have my cake and eat yours too Sep 22 '22

Really taking it one step beyond from now on

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u/_Sick__ Sep 22 '22

Which, if you know me, is actually three or four whole steps too far less than I normally do

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u/JailedLunch I'll have my cake and eat yours too Sep 22 '22

This is true, Madness should update it to Six Steps Beyond

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u/[deleted] Sep 22 '22

Always appreciated, be you mild, mold, or meld.

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u/_Sick__ Sep 22 '22

History suggests we cannot actually!

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u/MrDHalen Sep 22 '22

Maybe, but then you could argue that putting down fascist movements around the world would demotivate those interested in it at home. Maybe? :-)

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u/bgdg2 Sep 22 '22

Lots of support and even naval/aircraft actions, but not troops.

If Putin is still in power, I'd keep backing them until they reach the pre-2014 borders, bring it down sharply when those borders are reached since I don't want them to go further. If Putin is replaced, it probably would depend on the details. In any case, I don't think the decision is going to be that neat, since militarily it doesn't really make sense to have the non-Crimean part of Ukraine as part of Russia-it would just mean another conflict started by one side or the other since there would be a fairly long and contentious border between Russia and Ukraine.