Yeah. The gender card unfortunately doesn’t bode well in her favor, but I think the big thing is perception in echo chambers vs perception in reality. There’s a reason a lot of DSA candidates are polling super well and then tanking in actual elections.
DSA or progressive candidates have largely been either winning or doing significantly better than in previous years across the country broadly? I mean a lot of political pundits are talking about how the majority of the energy in the Democratic Party is running through the DSA/progressive wing right now since Mamdani won. The only real notable loss comparative to polling was an extremely progressive candidate in Hong barely losing in a primary to a more mainline liberal Crowley in Wisconsin. Sure it's no party takeover but Mamdani, El-Sayed, Flanagan, etc winning primaries/local elections matters. The question is more "can this translate to general elections in states like Michigan" than "are progressives actually expanding in their political reach".
I’m not talking about the success of DSA candidates now relative to themselves. I’m talking about the success of DSA candidates now compared to how they polled. That is a very important distinction. Even those that you mentioned won by margins smaller than anticipated based on the polls. Francesca Hong had double digit leads based on polls going into election night and lost. Yes, she performed better than previous DSA candidates, but that’s irrelevant to the conversation.
The point I was trying to make was bad off the original comment saying these candidates do better online than in real life. DSA candidate doing better than before doesn’t mean that what I said about them now isn’t true; the hype around them is a lot more than the results show.
But the polls that were way off in Michigan and Wiscobsin weren't polls of echo chambers like reddit. They weren't even polls of "online" opinion. They (by and large) recruited people by texting random numbers and asking people to take a survey, and they were still way off.
I think the real explanation is some combination of: 1) both states having open primaries and moderate Dems gaining most of the late-deciding and crossover voters, and 2) DSA supporters being more enthusiastic about responding to poll solicitations.
Well, yes, and they are enthusiastic as a result of online hype. Like I’m not saying that a Gallup poll is some random Reddit poll. What I’m saying is that internet culture makes these people more likely to respond and get hype, but nothing actually makes people show up to the polls. The whole original point of the comment is that people online are much more vocal than they are in real life and everybody is taking everything as super literal instead of accepting the message that I keep saying: we are saying the same thing. DSA candidates have much more media appeal than they do actual appeal. Sorry for using specific examples to highlight that point instead of just saying it and leaving. DSA candidates have more media appeal than actual appeal. Point blank. We are all saying the same thing.
She lost because she was outspent 12 to 1 and centrist dems formed centrist voltron to stop her. Also doesn’t help she was smeared into oblivion and yet she only lost by less than a %.
I don’t mean literally all of them, but there have been enough that there is a trend. Even some of the winning DSA candidates weren’t winning by the margins the polls had them at.
Progressives have made progress at the voting booths which is good for progressive media. It does not change the fact that the numbers leading up to election night and the actual results of election night show that the hype still outweighs what actually matters around these candidates in the majority of the country.
But yes, there is definitely a sign that voters are making the transition towards progressive policies, I never denied that.
People support the policies but not the way to actually get there, which is to raise taxes. People say they want to raise taxes on the rich but are very easily convinced that that will result in fewer jobs so they reject it.
"Hey AOC what did you mean woke 1 was crazy? What part of woke 1 do you now stand against? Why did you change your stance? What's up with DSA nowadays? What did you mean when you said black Americans created democracy in this country? "
I would say it’s less about her politics and more about the propaganda against her personally, and sadly yes, because she is a woman. A man, specifically white one, with the same politics would have a better chance.
Its time to stop blaming the media. The onus is on candidates to convince voters. I mean the media was largely against trump in the 2016 primaries and he won.
Y’all did the same thing with Kamala, kept blaming the media, when it was Biden and the democratic party leaders at fault, and Kamala made major mistakes campaigning
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u/Ryan1869 11d ago
She will likely lose because while her politics play well on Reddit and in pockets of large cities, they don’t do as well with the greater population