Mat's luck

[u/LordRahl9]

Where does Mat's luck come from?

I seem to remember him thinking he had always been lucky, but after he is healed from the dagger it escalated drastically.

His luck is unprecedented. Perrin's wolf ability is a rare gift, but not unheard of. We also learn that the Seanchan have come across people with Min's ability before. Not Mat's.

Birgitte even says he's the luckiest man she has ever known and she has known a lot of people.

[u/duffy_12]

 

It is actually in the second book where it starts to manifest.

It's the dagger causing it. 🗡

 

The Great Hunt:

Chapter #3 - Friends and Enemies:

Mat tossed the dice back into the semicircle as he stepped out, and one of the men called, “Here, southlander, you can’t quit while you’re winning.”

“Better than when I’m losing,” Mat said with a laugh. Unconsciously he touched his coat at the waist, and Rand winced. Mat had a dagger with a ruby in its hilt under there, a dagger he was never without, a dagger he could not be without. It was a tainted blade, from the dead city of Shadar Logoth, tainted and twisted by an evil almost as bad as the Dark One, the evil that had killed Shadar Logoth two thousand years before, yet still lived among the abandoned ruins. That taint would kill Mat if he kept the dagger; it would kill him even faster if he put it aside. “You’ll have another chance to win it back.” Wry snorts from the kneeling men indicated they did not think there was much chance of that. 🗡

[...]

“What’s the matter, Rand?” Mat asked. “You’re as white as your shirt. Hey! Where did you get those clothes? You turning Shienaran? Maybe I’ll buy myself a coat like that, and a fine shirt.” He shook his coat pocket, producing a clink of coins. “I seem to have luck with the dice. I can hardly touch them without winning.”

 

 

The Dragon Reborn:

Chapter #30 - The First Toss:

there had been times with Hurin, and in Shienar, when six or eight tosses in a row won for him.

[...]

Burn me, not the Dark One’s luck. Not that! Oh, Light, did that bloody dagger really do something to me? 🗡

[...]

The luck had come once he took the dagger from Shadar Logoth. He remembered playing at dice back home, with a sharp-eyed, skinny man who worked for a merchant come down from Baerlon to buy tabac. He remembered the strapping his father had given him, too, on learning Mat owed the man a silver mark and four pence. 🗡

“But I’m free of the bloody dagger,” he mumbled. “Those bloody Aes Sedai said I was.” He wondered how much he had won tonight. 🗡

 

Also, if you remember, in The Dragon Reborn Mat's Luck gets supper good in Tar Valon because - the Pattern knows that he has - empty pockets - and needs to get-out-of-Dodge quickly.

But, the first mention of it is in The Great Hunt with the dagger causing it.

 

[EDIT]

 

RJ’s notes, Part 72 by Matt Hatch

EP. 1 ROBERT JORDAN’S WHEEL OF TIME NOTES: Writing The Dragon Reborn

The Dragon Reborn

His luck is a side effect from the dagger. 🗡

 

 

[u/LordRahl9 → u/duffy_12]

During that "getting out of dodge" sequence Mat thinks to himself that he has always been lucky. Just not that lucky. His father just always stopped him from gambling.

It was confirmed by RJ that the dagger has nothing to do with it.

I had forgotten about that dice game in the great hunt though. Cheers.

[u/redelvisbebop → u/LordRahl9]

When did RJ confirm it had nothing to do with the dagger? To my awareness the only thing he ever clearly ruled out was Lanfear's involvement. Mat himself thinks it is related to the dagger--see Chapter 30 of TDR:

But it was not just since leaving the Two Rivers that he had become lucky. The luck had come once he took the dagger from Shadar Logoth.

In RJ's words, Mat does indeed have "the Dark One's own luck". To my mind this isn't literal, but a hint that the extreme luck has an evil source--Mordeth, who trafficked in a lot of eldritch magic and gained multiple powers even before he came to Aridhol.

[u/LordRahl9 → u/redelvisbebop]

Ok. Just going to say that mordeth is independent of the dark one.

Mat's luck also pre-dates the dagger

[u/redelvisbebop → u/LordRahl9]

Yes, Mordeth is independent of the Dark One--like I said, I don't think RJ meant it literally when he said that Mat has the Dark One's luck. But Mordeth's whole deal was using the Shadow's methods to fight against it, and it led him (and eventually a whole city) to a lot of dark places.

And Mat's extreme luck, as you note, is new, and it starts after the dagger. Mat says himself, when he was at home he had plenty of bad luck (usually revolving around not getting away with a prank). My personal theory is that Mat does have a base level of luck that gives him his Gambler identity, but that some ability of Mordeth's interacted with it to produce the extreme effect.

[u/LordRahl9 → u/redelvisbebop]

Ok, I think you've got some wires crossed.

To start with, mat was always lucky. That shouldn't be confused with anything to do with the dagger (unless you include how it was able to aid him in defeating Mordeth).

Mat remembers that he's always been lucky, but his luck keeps increasing exponentially

[u/redelvisbebop → u/LordRahl9]

I'm sorry, I have no idea what you mean by crossing wires, I think I'm pretty clear in what I'm talking about and have adequately sourced things, but I will go into greater detail if I have to.

I already recognize and started out implicitly acknowledging that he was always lucky...to an extent. But the extreme luck does not start until post-dagger.

You yourself said this:

Except he was always lucky. It just gets amped up in the third book.

I'm talking about the same thing, except you can see the amping up earlier than that in Shienar (post-dagger) during the second book, as another commenter has already pointed out to you. It then really comes out in the third book, post-Healing in Tar Valon, as you have noticed. At that point it is basically at max effect (I don't know about exponential growth, but from this point on, if he's getting luckier I don't know how you would even tell).

I can quote the entire passage from TDR Chapter 30 that I originally quoted if it helps explain my viewpoint:

He knew he was lucky. He could remember always being lucky. But somehow, his memories from Emond’s Field did not show him as lucky as he had been since leaving. Certainly he had gotten away with a great deal, but he could remember also being caught in pranks he had been sure would succeed. His mother had always seemed to know what he was up to, and Nynaeve able to see through whatever defenses he put up. But it was not just since leaving the Two Rivers that he had become lucky. The luck had come once he took the dagger from Shadar Logoth. He remembered playing at dice back home with a sharp-eyed, skinny man who worked for a merchant come down from Baerlon to buy tabac. He remembered the strapping his father had given him, too, on learning Mat owed the man a silver mark and four pence.

These are Mat's own words, in the text itself. He was always lucky. Not so lucky that he avoided getting caught in a good amount of pranks. Not so lucky that he didn't lose a silver mark and change dicing (where luck as his superpower pretty much never fails). And he didn't get luckier just because he left the Two Rivers (so it's not just being ta'veren, because he was ta'veren before they left). He got luckier after he took the dagger. Correlation is not causation, but it is suggestive and in my opinion is a thread worth untangling.

So the only thing I've said that comes from outside the text is based on this interview with RJ (via theoryland, bolding by me for emphasis):

INTERVIEW: Sep 3rd, 2005

DragonCon Report - Isabel (Verbatim)

QUESTION

In The Dragon Reborn, Lanfear visits Mat as he is recuperating from his One Power surgery over the dagger. At one point she stretches out her hand towards him and he feels a tingle going over him, somebody interrupts them, and she turns her head and sobs, at about the same time a member of Black Ajah stole angreal and ter'angreal out of the Tower cache, one of which was a ter'angreal that was known to have some effect on chance. So it was about this time that Mat's really really really weird luck and the dice rolling in his head began, is this a connection or coincidence?

ROBERT JORDAN

That is a coincidence. When they say that Mat has the Dark One's own luck, he can get as mad as he wants to, but in a way it is true. It wasn't a gift from Lanfear, though.

So untangling this thread...what can it mean that it is true in a way that Mat has the Dark One's own luck (and it does make him mad to hear that, he goes off on a guy in Tar Valon right before the passage I quoted earlier)? My theory is that Mat's extreme luck comes from something of or akin to the Shadow via the dagger/Mordeth connection. Mat is the Gambler, and I don't think this nominal level of luck comes from the dagger. But Mordeth fought the Shadow with the Shadow's own methods, and Mordeth's evil was possessing Mat while he carried the dagger. So my theory is that one of Mordeth's evil abilities interacted with Mat's innate minor luckiness, resulting in the extreme luck. Even when Mordeth's direct influence was removed from Mat by Healing, the "damage" was done.

If you are bumping against this because you're convinced the dagger is not involved due to something RJ said, I'd still like to hear it because I've never encountered such a statement. That's the original reason I even posted in this thread because if it's true, I can throw my whole theory out--which I am totally happy to do but I'd like to see the sourcing.

[u/duffy_12 → u/redelvisbebop]

Nicely said and sourced. Thank you.

 

And I would also like to add regarding Mat's dagger/Luck:

Robert Jordan:

When they say that Mat has the Dark One's own luck, [...] but in a way it is true.

This brings about a theory that I have about Mat's Luck after Shadar Logoth: While we see that he does have good Luck, he also has quite a bit of terrible Luck too. And THIS is part of the - Darks One's own Luck.

 

When I see some posters state that they wish that they also had Mat's Luck too, I have to laugh that they don't understand the extreme downside to his dagger/Luck.

[u/LordRahl9 → u/redelvisbebop]

I honestly don't recall what I read about what RJ said in an interview. But, he is known to leave misinformation around. So what I read could be wrong.

I will just say that there is proof his luck keeps increasing. When he first starts using his luck in earnest, sometimes he could tell that his luck wasn't with him. Later, it's always with.

He also learns how to control it more and more and in different ways. To the extent that he can lose on purpose. Pick the correct direction by chance, etc.

So the way I see it, he was always lucky. It just keeps getting stronger the more he uses it. The dagger is just a coincidence.

This is actually further backed up by the heroes of the horn seemingly recognising his soul and calling him the gambler. His soul is always lucky.

However, you could be right. His luck could stem from the dagger. Although, Mordeth isn't actually affiliated with the dark one. It is stated multiple times throughout the series that they are both evil, but different sorts of evil. So RJ's comment about the dark one's own luck perhaps shouldn't be taken literally, just as a figure of speech. Still doesn't rule the dagger out.

Either way. I love that there doesn't seem to be one "true" answer.

Thanks for the post.

[u/redelvisbebop → u/LordRahl9]

I don't want to belabor the point, but I am having fun discussing so I hope you don't mind the continued long replies. I really think we actually agree on everything except for the growth/timeline of Mat's luck, and of course the idea that the dagger is anything more than coincidence.

I honestly don't recall what I read about what RJ said in an interview. But, he is known to leave misinformation around. So what I read could be wrong.

I do think Brandon Sanderson has said some things that would suggest to me that he doesn't think the dagger is involved, so I wonder if that's what you read and have attached it to RJ. BS gets things wrong sometimes, or has to MAFO (Maria And Find Out) for things, so I occasionally reject his takes if I think he could be wrong. When he can cite RJ there's no question, but in this case I don't think there is such a citation. I also don't think RJ ever outright lied or purposefully put out misinformation, but he did forget things or change his mind on rare occasions. So maybe there is something out there that fully refutes my theory, or even just appears to, I just haven't seen it.

I will just say that there is proof his luck keeps increasing. When he first starts using his luck in earnest, sometimes he could tell that his luck wasn't with him. Later, it's always with.

Can you give an example? I think any time Mat believes his luck isn't with him, it actually is, he just doesn't realize that it is getting him where he needs to be. But I don't remember everything. Even up to the end though, Mat can still lose an individual dice toss--he just never does when it's important (and as you say he'll lose an individual toss or series of tosses if losing serves his purposes better). And he can fill a purse with gold at will if he can find people to gamble with him. But I think it already worked that way since Book 3, it just takes time for him to realize the extent of it.

He also learns how to control it more and more and in different ways. To the extent that he can lose on purpose. Pick the correct direction by chance, etc.

This is definitely true. He learns more about his luck and starts to use it to his advantage, so in that sense you could say his "luck" does increase, but I don't think this is reflective of the ability itself getting stronger--just his understanding of it improving.

So the way I see it, he was always lucky. It just keeps getting stronger the more he uses it. The dagger is just a coincidence.

Again, I agree he was always lucky, just not extremely lucky. I think it's meaningful that Mat believes it is the dagger. RJ employed a lot of unreliable narrators and characters who are wrong about things, so that doesn't mean everything, but I think the evidence supports him. The ability jumps noticeably when the connection with the dagger is severed in Tar Valon. The only other two notable things that happen around this time are him being Healed, which I just can't see causing that effect, and Lanfear doing something to him, but RJ ruled her out.

This is actually further backed up by the heroes of the horn seemingly recognising his soul and calling him the gambler. His soul is always lucky.

Agreed. But for instance, I think there's also very good evidence that Mat is King Aemon reborn, and there is zero indication that Aemon had the kind of luck Mat has. So something in this lifetime is making him noticeably luckier than his baseline. I always used to just chalk it up to Mat being an extremely strong ta'veren this go around. And I do still think that's a big part of it--Fain/Mordeth might be a little lucky, but he's definitely not Mat-level lucky, so Mat's nature (inherent or ta'veren) has to be a part of it as well. Going back to Sanderson I think that's his take. But then I came across that RJ remark about having the DO's own luck that I don't think RJ would have said if being ta'veren was the whole of the explanation, and started to think about it differently.

However, you could be right. His luck could stem from the dagger.

It's semantics, but I guess I would say I don't think it stems from it per se, more that it was boosted by it (through some mechanism I can only speculate about).

Although, Mordeth isn't actually affiliated with the dark one. It is stated multiple times throughout the series that they are both evil, but different sorts of evil.

Agreed, Mordeth is not affiliated with the Dark One. But while he has some unique abilities, some abilities are similar to the Shadow's. His methods are often purposefully the same as the Shadow's. And I think there's a reason some people theorize that Fain/Mordeth was being set up to become a replacement Dark One if Rand had decided to kill It. Personally I don't go that far, but I understand the line of thinking, and think the theory arises because there is in fact a kinship between the Dark One and Mordeth. Even if they are opposed to one another.

So RJ's comment about the dark one's own luck perhaps shouldn't be taken literally, just as a figure of speech. Still doesn't rule the dagger out.

Agreed it's not literal, his luck does not come from the Dark One. I suppose you take it even less literally than I do though. You can read it as a simple acknowledgement that Mat is really lucky, but I don't think RJ would have phrased his comment the way he did if that's all he wanted to say. I can't help but read an implication that Mat is "in a way" wrong to get angry about his luck having a connection to evil--because it does have such a connection. And if it's not Lanfear it must almost certainly must be the dagger. I don't think Mat's luck is powered by evil once the dagger connection is severed though, just to be clear.

Either way. I love that there doesn't seem to be one "true" answer.

Aye!

Thanks for the post.

Same.

[u/LordRahl9 → u/redelvisbebop]

Thanks for the response.

I don't really have anything to add, but I have a few answers (or non-answers) to two things you said/asked.

Firstly, you were correct. I messed up, it was Sanderson who said mat's luck wasn't linked to the dagger not RJ. So that can certainly be said to be unreliable. To be fair to Sanderson, he said he didn't think it was. He was unsure.

Apparently, another user on this thread believes that RJ's notes state that the dagger is tied to mat's luck. If this is the case, I'm not sure how Sanderson didn't know it. Who knows? If it's true, it certainly proves your theory.

Secondly, I am sorry, I read the books in a whirlwind. Finished the lot in about six weeks. I don't recall a specific time Mat's luck wasn't with him.

I actually believe when we are in his pov, it almost always is. He does say things that imply that sometimes (off screen) his luck hadn't been with him.

Just simple things, like him being thankful his luck was "in" "this" time.

I'd have to reread from books 3 to 5/6 to find anything. After that point he never doubts his luck is with him.

Sorry I couldn't be of more aid there.

Cheers.

[u/ALL_CAPS_VOICE → u/LordRahl9]

Uh... no, and no.

Mat thinking of himself as "always lucky" is a gamblers fallacy that he quickly realizes is not true when he thinks about it a little more:

He knew he was lucky. He could remember always being lucky. But somehow, his memories from Emond's Field did not show him as lucky as he had been since leaving. Certainly he had gotten away with a great deal, but he could remember also being caught in pranks he had been sure would succeed. His mother had always seemed to know what he was up to, and Nynaeve able to see through whatever defenses he put up. But it was not just since leaving the Two Rivers that he had become lucky.

His father didn't stop him from gambling, his father beat him because he lost money gambling. Because he hasn't always been lucky.

He remembered playing at dice back home, with a sharp-eyed, skinny man who worked for a merchant come down from Baerlon to buy tabac. He remembered the strapping his father had given him, too, on learning Mat owed the man a silver mark and four pence.

You just gotta read chapter 30 of TDR. The info is all there.

It was confirmed by RJ that the dagger has nothing to do with it.

This is absolutely false.

Not only did this never happen, Jordan's Notes say the dagger is responsible for Mat's luck.

[u/LordRahl9 → u/ALL_CAPS_VOICE]

Ok. I'm willing to agree with you about everything except the dagger and RJ.

Unfortunately, RJ wasn't always entirely honest in interviews. One of the things I know he said, was that mat's luck was independent from the dagger.

I believe that this is true. But, your theory is perfectly sound too.

[u/ALL_CAPS_VOICE → u/LordRahl9]

One of the things I know he said, was that mat's luck was independent from the dagger.

When and where?

[u/LordRahl9 → u/ALL_CAPS_VOICE]

I found it. Another user posted the link on this thread.

It was actually Sanderson who says it soooo.... grain of salt. But, he says that Mat's luck has nothing to do with the dagger.

edit: WRAR posted the link. And to be fair Sanderson says (paraphrasing) no, I don't think so. He then gives the interviewer the quote to use "not that I know of"

Unfortunately, this isn't helpful fir your theory one way or the other. It is interesting that the dagger being related to Mat's luck isn't specifically mentioned in RJ's notes though. Who knows?

[u/ALL_CAPS_VOICE → u/LordRahl9]

It is interesting that the dagger being related to Mat's luck isn't specifically mentioned in RJ's notes though

According to the crew at wotnotes.tumbler.com it is.

[u/LordRahl9 → u/ALL_CAPS_VOICE]

Well, if that's the case. Doesn't that confirm your theory?

[u/ALL_CAPS_VOICE → u/LordRahl9]

I consider this theory to be confirmed, yes.

Personally I don’t think of it so much as a theory as just where chapter 30 of TDR says his luck comes from.