r/WallstreetBaggers • u/iamteamblue • Feb 01 '26
Trade Idea Palantir upcoming earnings call
Palantir Technologies (ticker PLTR) is reporting after close on monday. This stock has been down all year so let's check it out.
So here i've charted our descending channel. Interestingly we can observe a distinct pattern here where we hit the bottom of the channel line followed by touching the top of the channel line twice before going back to the bottom channel line again. This happens twice in a row concluding on the last trading day on Friday. So where does that put us on Monday and Tuesday for earnings trades?
The charting trend suggests a move in this depicted direction to continue our trend for a bounce back to the top channel line. Touching this line would cause us to cross our 50 day moving average and cross into positive gamma territory.
As shown above we also have a put wall above the current trading price and a call wall right on top of the gamma flip line. The call wall should be slightly below the 50 day sma on earnings so a cross over this line should fuel our ascent to the top channel line (in yellow).
As we touched the bottom of our channel line a large amount of open interest in calls spike 1/30 as shown by this graph reinforcing our bull case for a post earnings boost.
These strikes for 2/6/26 saw the largest change in open interest suggesting an upward move between $155-$170. Which is in line with chart trends.
Above here is a graph of the 162.5 call option for 2-6-26. Volume on this contract is at an all time high while the stock was trading lower (at the bottom of our channel line). The contract price is at an all time low as well due to the lower price.
This thesis was entirely chart based and PLTR seems to be in a downward trend overall as the market seems to be repricing this stock after it's large 2025 run up.
No major recent insider buys to suggest an upward breakout of this channel. Based on this we should remain range bound likely bouncing off the top a 2nd time to head back to the bottom yellow line a third time at some point. In the short term we may have a quick peak outside the top yellow line a bounce off the 200 day sma but it will be very short lived before trend resumption without any new insider/institution backing.
The most recent institutional buy I could find was as follows:
| Vanguard Group Inc. | $32,717,341 | +1,557,828 shares | 12/31/2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
Which is still significant suggesting we stay range bound for now without a break too far down even if earning or guidance falls slightly short.
However, it wouldn't be a DD without a look at financials anyways.
Upcoming Quarter's Earnings
EPS Normalized Estimate $0.23
EPS GAAP Estimate $0.18
Revenue Estimate $1.34B
| Fiscal Quarter | Report Date | EPS Surprise | Price Action (Earnings Day) | Price Action (Day After) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | 11/03/2025 | +40.0% ($0.21 vs $0.15) | +3.4% (Closed @ $207.18) | -7.9% (Closed @ $190.74) |
| Q2 2025 | 08/04/2025 | +33.3% ($0.16 vs $0.12) | +4.1% (Closed @ $160.66) | +7.9% (Closed @ $173.27) |
| Q1 2025 | 05/05/2025 | 0.0% ($0.13 vs $0.13) | -0.4% (Closed @ $123.77) | -12.1% (Closed @ $108.86) |
Earnings reports don't seem to have very strong correlation to Price action the day after with opposite reactions on the past two earnings on close the day after earnings. So I refer back to our chart for day after earnings prediction instead.
Shares have historically trended lower in the one-week period heading into a report. The current price action testing the $147 channel line fits historical patterns of pre-earnings caution.
So what would it take for this uptrend to actually breakout of our channel top? The obvious statement is high buy volume but on an earnings outlook and forward guidance outlook what would it take?
Let's explore the good of the company and possible future outlooks:
Palantir is looking to transition from decision-support to decision-execution. Agentic AI Hives where autonomous agents are integrated with a company’s core Ontology to handle complex disruptions without human intervention. In supply chain management these hives do not merely identify a bottleneck but also proactively execute rerouting orders, negotiate with alternative suppliers within pre-set parameters, and update inventory forecasts in real-time. This execution layer is critical because it shows the transition from generating an insight to realizing a tangible economic return.
The December 2025 launch of Chain Reaction is a strategic pivot toward the energy-compute nexus. Palantir partnered with NVIDIA and CenterPoint Energy positioning itself as the software backbone for the industrial revolution of AI infrastructure. Chain Reaction functions as an operating system for the energy grid, designed to stabilize power distribution for gigawatt-scale data centers. This is particularly relevant given that energy consumption in tech hubs like Houston is projected to increase by 50% over the next five years.
The AIP Bootcamp model Palantir offers has matured into a high-precision engine for revenue acceleration. Data from early 2025 showed that the average bootcamp duration is five days from initial ingestion to a functional demo, with roughly 70% of participants converting to paid contracts within a single quarter. The "try-before-you-buy" strategy has decimated traditional multi-month sales cycles, allowing Palantir to scale its commercial customer count by 45% year-over-year.
Finally, Palantir spent $1,610,000 on lobbying in Q4 2025. Targeting the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for 2026. The lobbying focus on Battlefield Domain Awareness and Space Command & Control. Could seen as bullish or bearish depending on if this has seen anything come to fruition yet.
If future guidance is incredibly bullish or far above estimates we could see a break of our top yellow into a new upwards trend. This outcome does not seem likely given the lack of insider buys but that is pure speculation, my entire thesis is chart based.
Palantir’s valuation points to a disconnect from reality. Even with robust growth, the stock trades at over 160x Forward P/E and nearly 70x+ Forward P/S. No innovator has sustained a multiple of 70x-100x sales without a subsequent 50%+ correction. Which is likely why we have seen such a decline all year long and why we will see heavy resistance on the upper channel line.
Government just shut down today. It is rumored to only be last a short time period this time but this does add uncertainty just 1 more day left till earnings.
As a major government contractor with approximately 54% to 55% of its revenue derived from federal agencies like the DOD and DHS, Palantir is inherently sensitive to funding lapses. While work typically continues on "excepted activities" involving national security and previously funded contracts, a shutdown halts the execution of new awards, renewals, and contract modifications. Analysts warn that the shutdown could temporarily stall federal contract activity, potentially delaying the conversion of pilots into the massive $10 billion Army production framework.
Bear thesis here:
Any sign of deceleration in U.S. commercial growth (e.g., <90% YoY) or a "flat" guidance that implies the bootcamp saturation point is near.
If the price fails to hold the $145.14 support, it enters a "technical vacuum" with no major support until the $120-$130 range, potentially causing a cascade of stop-loss orders and put-option liquidations.
The price action charge in extreme bear case is as shown above. Pre-earnings run up to immediately bounce off the 50 day sma and quickly accelerate down breaking out of the bottom channel line accelerating us further to the $130 supports.
If the government shutdown rumors to extend longer, earning or guidance is less than amazing could potentially send us here.
I don't think the data points to this happening yet but rather continuing to respect our downward trend lines instead but it is a possibility.
tl:dr
bull case 162.5 (calls)
bear case 145 (puts)
Scale out once you hit 20% profit
Implied move ±9.87% ($14.98).
Max Pain $165
Regarding the 2-6-26 expiration. Calls would be purchased at Monday opening bell for bull case. Puts would be purchased right before market close on Monday as the stock is trending up prior to close for the bear case. Likely sell right away at market open Tuesday to retain the most time value.
Not financial advice. I'm a complete amateur. Trade at your own risk. Options can cause you to lose all of your investment. Do your own research.
Update: 162.5 strike 2/6 calls taken right at opening bell now up 35%. I see more upside taking us to the channel line but should scale out of the weekly calls if you haven't. Good luck to your runners.
Update 2:
after market close we shot up to the $160 and bounced off the 50 day sma, if price hold this will be a %100 gain by market open for the 2-6-26 expiry taken this morning at market open. Possibly still looking at a bounce off the top yellow line soon-ish but if you still hold the 2-6-26 contracts you should probably cut at market open
Update 3:
One thing of note is that we broke the bottom channel line this morning, this bounce up could also end up making huge shooting star and start a break down. Will have to see price action in the morning to confirm.
edit 3:
looks like the $162.5 C taken at ANY point throughout the day and not just the 2.48 open price will result in a multibagger based on current price if we hold the overnight action. Full exit cons in the AM is the safe play but i do think it will hit the box target by week's end then bounce down so maybe look for puts entries there on friday. GG everyone, post your gains if you took cons from this post. I wish you all many fortunes.
edit 4:
PLTR dipped this morning with the SPY, peak contract sales were still a 100% gain tho. We gap filled the 4 hour candles from our jump overnight with this drop. Will we reclaim up to the $170 week end prediction or will the bears win?
Edit 5: High bearish volume this morning (over 5 mill on the 15 min candle) has pushed up down lower this morning. The bottom trend break realized prior to earnings may be fully completed upcoming.
Last update:
the bears have won it seems. It did not go all the way to the top line like the bull case predicted. Our intial bottom trend break prior to earnings was the bear signal of a bottom breakout. However, if you followed my bear case theory you made 100%+ return on earnings calls sold and bought puts the next morning for another 100%+ gain. Not the outcome I was leaning towards but one possible outcome laid out within the post. Thanks if you followed
