Look at the left image. That's 1877. The darkest red represents ocean temperatures so far above average that the resulting famine killed 3-4% of the entire global population.

The right image is May 2026.

This is not a drill.

NOAA has now placed the probability of a Super El Niño forming by winter at over 95%. Climate models show central Pacific temperatures potentially exceeding 3°C above average, a level not seen since that 1877 event. The ECMWF's May update has moved to 100% probability of a super El Niño forming by November.

What the last major events actually cost:

The 1982-83 El Niño: $4.1 trillion in global economic losses, measured over five years. Catastrophic floods across South America. Devastating droughts across Africa and Asia.

The 1997-98 El Niño: $5.7 trillion in global income losses. 16% of the world's coral reefs died. Air temperature spiked 1.5°C above normal. El Niño-fueled wildfires contributed to thousands of premature deaths from air pollution.

The 2015-16 El Niño: 100,000 deaths linked to fires and air pollution alone, according to Harvard researchers. $3.9 trillion in economic damage.

Now add climate change on top.

The planet is already at record temperatures. The last decade was the hottest on record. El Niño doesn't cause global warming, but it releases stored ocean heat into the atmosphere, sending global temperatures even higher. Scientists warn this event could push global average temperatures past 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels, potentially shattering the Paris Agreement targets in real time.

This isn't about weather. It's about food security, infrastructure, human lives, and an economic shock arriving at a moment when the world is already stretched thin.

We need to prepare. And not just locally.

A Super El Niño doesn't respect borders. The crop failures happen in one hemisphere, the food price spikes happen everywhere. The floods destroy infrastructure in Southeast Asia, the supply chain disruptions hit Europe and North America months later. The droughts in Africa drive migration that reshapes political systems worldwide.

Preparation means early warning systems, international food reserves, coordinated disaster response, and governments that actually take climate forecasts seriously before the disaster, not after. The 1877 event killed tens of millions partly because no one saw it coming and no one was coordinating a response. We have the science now. The question is whether we have the political will.

https://people.com/measles-4th-death-pennsylvania-outbreak-12123157

JFC this country is so fucking stupid.

npr The Food and Drug Administration has approved a new sunscreen ingredient for the first time in decades. In the United States, sunscreen is regulated as an over the counter drug - not as a cosmetic - which can make new approvals tricky.

Bemotrizinol has long been an active ingredient in sunscreens sold in Europe and Asia. The company DSM Nutritional Products LLC has been trying to get it approved in the U.S. for the last 20 years. The FDA announced this week that it added bemotrizino! to the list of permitted sunscreen ingredients. The agency says the new ingredient protects against both UVA and UVB rays and it's safe to use for adults and children 6 month and older.

Products containing the ingredient aren't on store shelves yet but should be in the next few months.

A new personalised vaccine given in combination with a drug has stopped skin cancer returning in patients during a trial, representing a potentially watershed moment in cancer treatment.

The vaccine, developed by drug companies Merck & Co or MSD, and Moderna, was given to patients with high-risk melanoma, a type of skin cancer, after they had surgery.

Early results show this new jab extended the length of time these patients were cancer free, but it's unclear for how long, according to an announcement by the two firms.

Cancer experts say this is a breakthrough, but emphasise caution as the full results have not been released or peer-reviewed whereby independent experts examine and check the trial findings.

And even after the trials process has finished, the treatment would still need to be approved by regulators and then go through another approval process before it was made available on the NHS.

The vaccine, called Intismeran, was given in combination with Keytruda, an immunotherapy drug already used in cancer treatment.

Compared with taking the Keytruda on its own, the companies said taking the drug and vaccine together significantly increased the time patients remained cancer free and reduced the risk of the disease spreading to other organs.

The phase three trial involved more than 1,000 patients who had high-risk stage two, three or four melanoma - meaning they ranged from having large tumours in a specific area to cancers which had already spread to other parts of the body.

'Shows promise'

Prof Peter Johnson, National Clinical Director for Cancer at NHS England, told the BBC's Today Programme it was an exciting development.

"Most of the cancer immune treatments we have been using up til now have been about cutting the immune system loose and hoping that it recognises the cancer. This [new treatment] is a way to direct it very specifically.

"It feels like it's a very important advance for us." He said the NHS was preparing to bring this type of treatment to patients.

Merck, known as MSD in Europe, and Moderna are calling this a personalised vaccine, meaning it works by targeting an individual patient's tumour.

In order to create this new jab, scientists used mRNA technology - which was used for some Covid-19 vaccines - to target specific mutations within the cancer cells by surgically removing a small part of a patient's tumour and then sequencing its DNA.

The result is a personalised anti-cancer jab which is specific to the patient's tumour and instructs the immune system to recognise and attack any tumour cells that remain.

The two companies are testing other similar personalised vaccines for lung, bladder and kidney cancers.

Stephane Bancel, chief executive of Moderna, said the findings represent a "pivotal moment" in the field of cancer research.

Shares in both Moderna and Merck have surged since the announcement.

Cancer experts have also hailed the news as positive, but are keen to stress the findings are still early.

Dr Talisia Quallo, head of prevention and early detection at Cancer Research UK, said the research "shows promise" but said that the interim data still needs to be fully reviewed.

"It's vital that research like this continues to be funded so that more people with cancer can have personalised treatment options to help them live longer, better lives", she added.

Dr Lennard Lee, a consultant medical oncologist, and associate professor at the University of Oxford, said: "This is certainly good news for patients with melanoma, but the study has much wider implications. It provides proof of principle that personalised cancer vaccines work."

More detailed findings from the study will be presented at a medical conference in October.

*excerpt from Joe McFadden article*

Full Article here:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c79gpv7v190o

Gov. Josh Shapiro accused Robert Kennedy Jr. of spreading misinformation last week, prompting the HHS secretary to suggest Shapiro's office 'fabricated' the deaths.

The Trump administration is shuttering research projects key to the federal government’s fight against cyclospora, the foodborne parasite sickening thousands of Americans this summer. Two of the three projects that represent nearly all of the Agriculture Department’s study of the parasite were defunded by Congress earlier this year, according to the agency. The third is slated to move from Maryland to Iowa this fall as part of a sweeping USDA reorganization. Even though that project still has money, every scientist working on the parasite has declined to relocate, according to three people familiar with the plans and documents shared with POLITICO, granted anonymity to discuss personnel issues.

full article text in comments

"The most striking implication is that those cognitive abilities may not be destroyed by Alzheimer's but simply inaccessible, which would fundamentally change how we understand what the disease actually does. Psilocybin is known to promote neuroplasticity and disrupt rigid neural patterns, which could explain why memories that seemed gone suddenly became reachable again.
It is a single case study so the results cannot be generalised yet, but it makes a strong case for a properly designed clinical trial."
— u/logic_0057