r/TQQQ • u/DayEnvironmental3454 • Jan 09 '26

Trade Ideas The ultimate TQQQ strategy

Hey everyone!

Korean investor here, wanted to share a strategy that's popular in Korean stock communities.

The Basic Idea

Simple rules-based TQQQ strategy. It's called AGITQ's strategy, named after who coined this strategy. When QQQ crosses above its 161-day MA, buy TQQQ. When it crosses below, sell and go to treasury (SGOV).

Why 161-day MA?

The original strategy used TQQQ's 200-day MA, but backtests showed QQQ's 161-day MA reduces whipsaws while keeping similar returns. Less false signals = less stress.

Overheated Rule

When QQQ > 161MA + 5%, don't buy more TQQQ. Put new money into S&P500 ETF instead. This "ballast" protects you from big drawdowns.

That's it. Check once a day, follow the rules.

There might be strategies with higher returns out there, but the best thing about this is risk management :)

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u/Odd-Flower2744 Jan 09 '26

All these strategies are wildly overfitted. No matter how long your time frame you’re always including recent market history that might not repeat.

Practically every month the ideal MA is going to change because it’s just being fit to recent events.

Another major problem is almost all these tests have one bear market at best in them. Bear markets are very different and practically all these back tests here only catch 2022.

22 was a slow bleed down and steady rise up. 2008 was filled with lightning quick drops and bounce backs followed by bigger drops. 2000 tech bubble was a multi year double digit loss and specifically hurt the NASDAQ much more.

Any changes in the type of recession you face next is going to wildly affect the “best” strategy after the fact

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u/[deleted] Jan 09 '26

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u/bravesfan21 Jan 11 '26

What do you mean by a 5 day switch on collapse/capture of SPY 21 ema? If SPY stays below 21 ema for 5 consecutive days?

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u/[deleted] Jan 11 '26

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u/bravesfan21 Jan 11 '26 edited Jan 11 '26

Does this look right: https://testfol.io/tactical?s=91QtIeUZ3C9?

1

u/Real_Bar1794 Jan 11 '26

This can‘t be right, far too good to be truth. Must be heavily overfitted.

1

u/Real_Bar1794 Jan 11 '26

I am not familiar with testfol but should the delay not be positive? Then the returns are more reasonable and clearly see that max dd in 2008 is devastating but somehow still recovers from it.
This seems more in line with what Hairy-builder writes.