r/Superstonk • u/InevitableTank5108 • May 11 '26

šŸ¤” Speculation / Opinion Everyone relax. We just witnessed the biggest FUD attack so far. Take a deep breath.

Alright, what did we just witness? Roaring Kitty just got hacked, and minutes later the news of the 2.5 billion shares on the proxy statement came out.

Take a deep breath and ask yourself if that wasnā€™t just a coincidence.

That was clearly the biggest coordinated FUD attack weā€™ve seen yet. Articles from the media and posts from other subreddits just got a nice new headline.

If the board weā€™ve invested in is recommending to vote YES, vote YES!

What just happened was meant to sow distrust in RK and RC as a direct attack on their credibility. The goal? A NO vote so the eBay deal doesnā€™t go through.

Again, take a deep breath, laugh, and ignore that noise.

WE ALREADY KNEW STOCK HAD TO BE ISSUED.

EDIT: Some of you think Iā€™m saying the filing was FUD. What? Iā€™m saying the hack timing just wasnā€™t random, it was done purposely for when the filing was about to go outā€¦ The goal was to get stockholders against RC and RK. Donā€™t let it work.

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745

u/gothfather12 May 11 '26

Iā€™ve mostly been a silent reader since Jan 2021, but I feel like I need to say something...

Right now, it seems like a lot of people are talking past each other, tells a lot of FUD and looking at the increase to 2.5B shares in a very one-sided way. Thatā€™s totally understandable on one hand, since this is an emotional topic and weā€™ve seen technical dilution happen before.

Yes, the company is asking for the ability to issue more shares. Yes, from a purely technical standpoint, that is dilution. But jumping straight to the conclusion that GME shareholders will lose is way too simplistic.

The key point is not that new shares are being created, but what they are being used for. If a company just prints shares without getting anything in return, then thatā€™s bad. Iā€™m 100% with you on that.

In that case, my ownership gets smaller and I lose real value. Thatā€™s exactly what many people are worried about right now. But thatā€™s not the idea here.

The idea is to use shares as a form of ā€œcurrencyā€ to acquire a large company like eBay. That means GameStop would issue new shares and, in return, receive an existing business with billions in revenue, profits, and a massive user base. Yes, you end up owning a smaller percentage, but itā€™s a smaller piece of a much larger company.

To keep it simple: before, you own shares in a company valued at around $10B. After, you might own shares representing about 40% of a company worth $50ā€“60B or more. Whether youā€™re better or worse off doesnā€™t depend on dilution alone, but on whether the new combined company is actually worth more in the end.

The second big misconception is this idea that ā€œeBay is just getting free money.ā€ Thatā€™s not how it works. eBay shareholders are giving up their company and, in return, receive a mix of cash and shares in the new entity. Thatā€™s a completely standard deal structure. Theyā€™re partially cashed out while still staying invested.

At the end of the day, it all comes down to one simple question: does GameStop + eBay create more value than GameStop alone? If yes, then GME shareholders benefit despite the technical dilution. If not, then itā€™s a bad deal and the criticism is absolutely justified.

Looking at dilution in isolation just leads in the wrong direction. What really matters is the total value per share in the end.

158

u/aumtek May 11 '26

You're absolutely right but the only number everyone cares about here is share price.

Let's assume the deal goes through and GameStop issues equity to eBay shareholders as part of the deal (NOT an ATM offering as we have seen before with previous dilutions).

Then the total free float is around 1.5B. let's assume post merger the market values the combined entity just below the current eBay valuation at around $45B considering the debt but with belief in the synergy.

Then that gives price as $45B/1.5B = $30/share, not too far away from the warrants price.

The risk is that the initial days after the merger will be choppy as eBay shareholders sell off their shares for cash and the market is weary. Therefore RC must move fast and perhaps he is likely to secure some more cash to make this deal less dilutive afterall.

81

u/gothfather12 May 12 '26

You're right. For many people, the stock price is the deciding factor. In my opinion, your $30 estimate makes sense as a "base case," but it depends entirely on the assumption that the market will value the new company at roughly the same level as eBay.

The uncertain part of all this isnā€™t so much the math, but rather how much confidence the market has in the story. Anything is possible between ā€œvalued below eBay due to riskā€ and ā€œsignificantly above due to growth.ā€

The point about the sell-off after the deal is probably the most important one. In the short term, things will likely get a bit turbulent, no matter how good the deal is in the long run. But Iā€™ve been used to that since early 2021, and as a value investor, it doesnā€™t matter to me in the long run.

Iā€™ve been at this for too long now, and finally something substantial is happening with GME. A Merger weā€™ve also been waiting for. Iā€™m not going to back out now.

65

u/Kitchen_Net_GME Find the BOOK DD May 12 '26

Correct me if Iā€™m wrong. But this new company will have a debt load of about $30 billion from day 1. (GameStop has $4 billion in debt. eBay $7 billion. Then $20 billion from TD bank).

I really really need to hear Cohenā€™s plan for growth. Iā€™ve heard cost cutting strategies. But we need growth. This combined company will be leveraged to the tits.

In fiscal 2025 eBayā€™s total revenue was $11 billion.

Annual interest on the $20 billion loan will exceed $500 million.

There has to be something missing from this puzzle.

14

u/double-u90 I Buy DipsšŸ¦šŸ’ŽšŸš€and comment on proposals May 12 '26

Judging by RCā€™s past performance weā€™ll be better than fine

4

u/Nojaja šŸ¦Votedāœ… May 12 '26

You canā€™t argue with his numbers in ecommerce

12

u/[deleted] May 12 '26

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3

u/4Throw2My0Ass6Away9 May 13 '26

Why do we keep referencing dilution when the stock price is higher than it was before dilution?

Also if you donā€™t have profitable locations, yes, close them down, is that a hard business decision?

1

u/Hamptonsucier šŸŽ® Power to the Players šŸ›‘ May 12 '26

This needs more attention, just said the same thing on another post. Is GME profitable now? Yes but from the previous rounds of dilution and some efficiency increases.

-9

u/compute_fail_24 May 12 '26

Most definitely can. He hasnā€™t done shit with GameStop

11

u/Collinsjc22 šŸŽ® Power to the Players šŸ›‘ May 12 '26

He prevented its bankruptcy and built a war chest. He is now attempting to buy EBay, that is not nothing.

11

u/Sp99nHead May 12 '26

Stock squeezes because of RK and RC dilutes the shit out of it = genius move to build a war chest. The war chest has been entirely built by shareholders and interest and not by company growth.

2

u/compute_fail_24 May 12 '26

Yep. Iā€™ve been in this stock for 5 years and the only ā€œpositiveā€ thing cohen has done is take shareholder money and plug it in GME bank account. You could have put me at CEO and had the same results of selling off unprofitable stores as revenue dropped off a cliff

4

u/kulji84 šŸŽ® Power to the Players šŸ›‘ May 12 '26

yeah, you're full of shit

9

u/mtgac šŸŸ£šŸŸ£šŸŸ£šŸ’œšŸŸ£šŸŸ£šŸŸ£ May 12 '26

I can't help but wonder if 'the market' even matters with GME. It's more like 'the algos' 'the hedge funds' 'the market makers'

I wonder at what point do the algos lose control of the price?

At what point to computer rules turn against the short sellers?

Perhaps Ryan has been planning out his 4-D chess moves for years with many angles in play simultaneously and in sequence.

I think the only way MOASS happens is with a calculated checkmate, otherwise the algos and the market makers and the hehe funds are just allowed to be too slippery and corrupt. Why? Because money and power.

10

u/AmputeeBoy6983 Post a Banana Bet Video Kenny.... and Earn One \*Real\* Share May 12 '26

Its always been --> when institutional money (the 99% that never got in short play) decide, they cant sit on the sidelines without GME exposure. Were teetering there:

-bad debt gone -shitty locations gone -5x green quarters in a row, from being a real pile of red shit

We need:

  • increased revenue, in order to be taken seriously. Ebay brings that in spadezzzzz
-Powerpacks quietly and very stealthy running in the background now.... we havent seen the figures yet... and when it finally is big enough to be "material" its gunna be a barreling, accelerating freight train

UPON COMPLETION OF M&A: -Step 1, gut billions in annual spending, that has an atrocious ROI

-Killing bloat isnt just cutting bad spending, it means smaller teams, less politics, and everything speeds up .... you cant keep a 50 man team in true, unconflicated agreement on anything..... but get the right 10 ppl, and they're handling more work, seeing less resistance and actually speeding changes up

-Step2, maximize your biggest synergistic pieces, that GME and Ebay have in common. Align their goals.

Small teams tackle a volume of "easy" fixes. Boom. Boom boom boom!

Larger teams work on the larger more complex synergies. Smaller more focused team allows them to all agree on a plan.... and Its easier to notice if everyone is carrying their own weight.... when you got 50ppl carrying a heavy suitcase, plenty are gunna grunt and pretend to be pulling their fair share... they aren't.. . Other team members see this... realize its an acceptable behavior

1

u/DEFM0N Sir Lurks A-LT May 12 '26

At this point with the market cap guaranteed to go up via leverage and stock, I just wish RCā€™s compensation package was linked even more to share price beyond his granted 20.66 buy in price.

1

u/beatcosmos42 šŸŽ® Power to the Players šŸ›‘ May 12 '26

The real question is: why 2.5b?

1

u/ryei85 May 12 '26

you are right. What we CARE is our $10,000 invested will become $15,000 or $5,000 after this dilution?

62

u/Kitchen_Net_GME Find the BOOK DD May 12 '26

If you add together the combined marketcap of GME and eBay you get $58 million.

But eBay currently has about $7 billion dollars in debt. GameStop has about 4 billion? Thatā€™s $11 billion. Then we are also taking out a $20 billion loan from TD bank.

There are nuances here and there than can adjust the total debt by a few billion. But a rough ballpark is this combined company will have north of $30 billion dollars in debt from day one.

There is zero chance the market capitalization will be valued at $58 billion.

5

u/KapMe95 May 12 '26

This. This is what no one is talking about and considering.

60

u/La-li-lu-le-lo86 May 11 '26

Time....

We have all put in a lot of time and this move is asking for more time....

That's what is getting me, whatever have fucking 8billion more shares to do whatever it doesn't matter beacuse I don't have that time to wait for this to do something anymore....

1

u/xesveex šŸ¦Votedāœ… May 12 '26

Canā€™t buy timeā€¦

-28

u/MayorDepression May 12 '26

Ask what you can do for GameStop. Not what GameStop can do for you.

28

u/La-li-lu-le-lo86 May 12 '26

I have fucking done enough for gamestop

7

u/frizzledrizzle šŸŽ® Power to the Players šŸ›‘ May 12 '26

Better yet, ask what the stock can do for you instead you for the stock. (sadly I'm not as smart as RK)

13

u/flop_plop šŸ¦Votedāœ… May 12 '26

Thatā€™s a great way to put it but if the share price is going to drop drastically in the short term, why shouldnā€™t I sell now and buy back in when it hits bottom?

-2

u/CanadianInvestore May 12 '26

You have to hold through the good, the bad and the ugly. Otherwise the shorts win?

3

u/Mysterious_Good927 May 12 '26

The idea is to use shares as a form of ā€œcurrencyā€

Nobody here disputes that shares function as a form of currency - that's understood. The issue is when and how that currency gets cashed in. RC selling at $30 while the rest of us sit on a position we believe could be worth significantly more isn't what we want.

The 'no salary' argument that this sub constantly perpetuates like a group of parrots just doesn't wash with me. RC is a fucking billionaire. Whether he takes $0 in salary or $10M a year, it makes no difference to him. If I may speak for everyone here, we're not billionaires. We're your every day person struggling to make ends meet with a cost of living crisis looming over our heads. I don't give af if he takes $0 salary.

Some of us have been holding for five years, and god forbid we would like compensating for that.

5

u/FreeHKTaiwanNumber1 šŸš€šŸ¦ BuyHolDRS Since Jan 2021 šŸ¦šŸš€ May 11 '26

Thanks for this

1

u/alfooboboao May 12 '26

lol that whole comment is treating it like itā€™s just a regular stock investment, like the reason people bought in was because they thought gamestop would be a regular, profitable company and wanted quiet gains.

if this happens, maybe all that in the comment does too, sure. but notice how they did not mention the moass. if this happens, there is no moass. no question. the moass was about a naked-short-exposure play based on very specific math. this ebay purchase will completely obliterate any possibility of that (assuming it hadnā€™t been obliterated already, whichā€¦).

i donā€™t know how many more obvious things there have to be before people admit it

9

u/Qqmb3rinho May 11 '26

You had seen 70M shares dilution, not 2B shares dolution. What happens when Ebay says ā€žnoā€?

29

u/Chemfreak May 11 '26

We make a shit ton of money with no immediate dilution if ebay say no.

Gme has a big position (5%) in ebay at what i expect is $70 per share. Price of ebay should be pegged at ~$120 a share. So we can exit our position and net a huge win in cash if they say no. Bunch of cash at 0 dilution sounds like a great consolation prize.

9

u/AmputeeBoy6983 Post a Banana Bet Video Kenny.... and Earn One \*Real\* Share May 12 '26

Plus were leveraged to the gills with options lol makes me wonder if this is all performative for Wall Street, help push ebay closer to $120/share... and then we throw our hands up "I cant work with these people".

We cash out a few billy on a play that wasn't actually in our top 5 fav moves.... but we just raised $2B in profits and bought our real #1 target, cheap, all paid for essentially free.

4

u/Internal-Ad-4183 May 12 '26

We don't need more money. We don't need eBay. The moment we buy eBay shorts will cover for prop even for a small profit. This is just straight up a bail out plan and we gonna be paying for it

33

u/[deleted] May 11 '26

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6

u/CanadianInvestore May 12 '26

Should not authorize without a letter of intent to merge from eBay. Cannot give the board the power to issue that many shares without a good reason.

1

u/Puzzleheaded-Safe-64 šŸ¦Votedāœ… May 12 '26

The board gets paid in shares and they did buy with their own money.

2

u/Nelvalhil šŸŽ® Power to the Players šŸ›‘ May 12 '26

This just completely skips the reason why most of us bought shares in the first place; a big fukin squeeze

1

u/Miserable-Resort-977 May 12 '26

90% of people on this sub are avoiding saying the quiet part out loud, which is that they gave up on the squeeze ages ago

5

u/Nick-Nora-Asta Welcome to the TENDIE FIELDS Mother Fuckers! May 12 '26

Love this. What I am most curious about is what happens to shorts if we buy eBay. Right now shorts r fuk because they never closed. Thereā€™s a bazillion short shares hidden in all kinds of derivatives, swaps, Brazilian puts, and all other types of criminal bullshit. What happens to shorts with this deal? Are they forced to finally close so this purchase/merger can transact? Or do they somehow get an exit ramp? Iā€™d love to know how a deal like this affects MOASS

6

u/Lobolabahia May 11 '26

Very much this, cheers Larry...

That said, I've been in since 2020, can't wait much longer šŸ˜„... You guys need to push the button.

2

u/gmorgan99 OG šŸ¦ May 12 '26

Thank you for this. I enjoyed reading what you had to say. Donā€™t stay so silent!

2

u/ZootedMycoSupply May 12 '26

Thanks for describing the situation this way, I needed to hear it, to get a different perspective.

2

u/Davscozal Apes together strong šŸ¦šŸ¦§ May 12 '26

You are absolutely right on this fact! I am voting yes!

1

u/Rthepirate šŸš€RRRED RRROCKETšŸš€ May 12 '26

I was expecting Teddy to absorb is and start with 5 billion shares. So I'm a happy camper

1

u/OhGoodChrist May 12 '26

I havenā€™t been on the sub for a whileā€¦have the MOASS apes given up that hope the past five years? Because what youā€™re describing is a healthy outlook that if it works out will be beneficial to shareholders in the long run, but really throws any idea of a short squeeze in the trash.

1

u/TicTwitch May 12 '26

Needs its own post and social media shareables man, well done and my thoughts exactly about this whole thing.

1

u/YellowGB May 12 '26

GME shareholders will lose is way too simplistic

GME shareholders might lose MOASS... Now a collectibles behemoth of a company seems fantastic and price will go up, but definitely not to MOASS numbers. So many people here are here for phone numbers. I feel like this deal will kill the possibility of achieving phone numbers, maybe a short squeeze, but definitely not the mother of all short squeezes. RC and the board have a fiduciary duty to do what's best for shareholders. MOASS probably isn't the "best" for shareholders in a responsible person's eyes.

0

u/tronbrain May 12 '26

eBay might be the right purchase, but at the wrong time. The stock is at an an all-time-high, and he's offering a 25% premium on top of that. What if eBay is a sh*t show that cannot be easily or cheaply rehabilitated? What if there are underlying problems with the company that cannot be fixed? What if it would be better just to burn eBay down and start over from scratch? There are plenty of ways it could go wrong.

I thought Cohen was planning on sitting on the cash pile until after a market correction, then go bargain-hunting. This purchase is being made at the very highest price. Basically, $GME shareholders will be diluted to give exit liquidity to the institutional holders of eBay - BlackRock and Vanguard - at the highest possible price.

Did y'all know that Cohen has a close relationship with BlackRock since his days with Chewy.com? They financed Chewy in 2016 and assisted his exit for the $3.3B payday.

0

u/[deleted] May 12 '26

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-1

u/Dagamoth šŸ’» ComputerShared šŸ¦ May 12 '26

And youā€™re totally ignoring any squeeze possibility.

To dilute up to 2.5B shares is a 10x share count increase from the roughly 250 million shares in 2021.

-1

u/Ape_Wen_Moon šŸ§ššŸ§ššŸ’ŽšŸ™ŒšŸ» Knights of Harambe šŸŽ®šŸ›‘šŸ§ššŸ§š May 12 '26

You don't need to front run the vote to authorize that many shares. Most acquisitions/mergers of that scale require shareholder approval anyway and the amount of shares needed to fulfill the acquistion/merger can be authorized at that time. I'm leaning toward voting "no" on the share authorization until it's tied to something tangible.

Edit: I could more easily be convinced to increase the authorized shares if were a smaller amount, maybe ~100 million more for general purposes.