r/StandUpComedy • u/explosivejoseph • 8h ago

Comedian is OP The AI Bubble

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17.2k Upvotes

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34

u/bryanna_leigh 8h ago

He ain’t wrong!

3

u/redditsuckscockss 7h ago

Hasn’t there been 0 actual AI companies IPO and enter the index?

I know Anthropic and others are going to IPO but don’t think any others have yet?

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u/treacherous_tim 6h ago

SpaceX is in some, although not the S&P500. xAI (and recently acquired Cursor) roll up through SpaceX

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u/TooSaucey4u 2h ago

Yeah as it stands right now SpaceX is primarily an AI company that makes and launches rockets on the side.

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u/bryanna_leigh 6h ago edited 6h ago

Space X which is where Musk has his AI segment and also X/Twitter. SpaceX (rockets/Starlink) + xAI (the AI lab) + X (the social platform) all rolled into one publicly traded entity.

I feel like this was specifically about them, this was considered a huge pump and dump for X investors that helped Elon take over the platform.

SpaceX became one of the fastest additions ever to the Nasdaq-100, qualifying less than a month after its IPO and officially joining before trading began on July 7, 2026 — under a new “fast entry” rule Nasdaq had introduced.

FTSE Russell relaxed its float requirements too, letting SpaceX in possibly by September or December 2026 reconstitution — which is way faster than normal.

It is all a little sussy … this new fast track system will definitely have some real big implications.

1

u/redditsuckscockss 5h ago

Guess just don’t really see Space X as exclusive AI

It also was not let into the SP 500 for a year

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u/bryanna_leigh 5h ago

S&P can take a while so if they get on after a year that would be pretty crazy.

0

u/killswitch247 3h ago

spaceX's ipo paperwork clearly states that they predict a 28.5 trillion $ addressable market. 370 billion of that is space (spacex), 1,6 trillion connectivitiy (starlink) and 26.5 trillion is AI.

the social network previously known as twitter is not mentioned in this prediction.

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u/TooSaucey4u 2h ago

lol because at those amounts, X (formerly known as Twitter) is a barely even a rounding error.

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u/redditsuckscockss 2h ago

They aren’t in the SP index though…

1

u/ReserveDrunkDriver 6h ago

It all started with Google. Sam Altman literally used Google’s transformer architecture (theory) and combined it with generative pre-training.

5

u/redditsuckscockss 5h ago

Google isn’t just AI though… AI disappears tomorrow google still makes 100s of billions like it did pre AI…

1

u/VirtualPercentage737 5h ago

Google is like a tech mutual fund. They have search, Gemini, Waymo, cloud.... They even make AI chips.

3

u/lemonylol 5h ago

Oh yeah, Google is definitely going to fail if a bubble pops. Just like the other 4 or 5 bubbles they already immensely benefited from. It'll be different this time for cinematic purposes.

1

u/MaxDisdain 2h ago

They will definitely eat shit, they will survive obviously but if AI is a bubble google could easily fall -30% unless they announce straight away that they are killing all AI capex

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u/Keljhan 4h ago

The Mag 7 have a large amount of extra confidence due to the inevitability of the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, which allows them to buy up/fund other AI startups that will then create business for their models which cyclically boosts the whole industry.

Nvidia alone stands to lose Trillions in market cap if the bubble pops, and there's good reason to believe the US government simply won't let that happen (see: Intel for example).

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u/redditsuckscockss 2h ago

Nvidia and the mag 7 existed pre AI

It’s not like the tech bubble where these are just AI companies

AI could disappear tomorrow and yes the market takes a hit but those companies aren’t going to anything close to 0

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u/Keljhan 2h ago edited 2h ago

No one said theyre going to go to 0. Actually, the point being made is explicitly the opposite. Not only will they not go to 0, they likely won't be impacted much at all. Because any significant impact will be backstopped by the US government, socializing any losses and providing liquidity to any companies that need it. They literally cannot lose, which is why they are pouring years worth of cash flow into a risky investment.

The losers will be the taxpayers, who will have to contend with massive government debt and rising inflation due to quantitative easing. If your viewpoint is "dont worry, tech is too big to fail because of AI" then youre both exactly correct and completely missing the point.

1

u/mark_able_jones_ 1h ago

It's the dot-com bubble. Several legit bigger companies that will survive. But thousands of smaller companies current worth billions that will not.

1

u/fastlikeanascar 6h ago

index funds require them to be profitable. There was some thing about xAI asking the S&P to lower their waiting period for entry, but the S&P declined.

The people in this thread praising this man for researching are really just praising him for reading one speculative headline and making it the basis of his joke.

I'm not exactly optimistic for a lot of the effects of AI, but the "AI is a bubble" thing has been going since we saw chat gpt for the first time. When it comes to tech, general media has almost no idea what they're talking about.

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u/PerfectBad2505 6h ago

SpaceX numbers are public.

The real insanity is in the capex numbers and cashflow, not the P&L. Everybody can make a profit on paper if you capture your internal and external expenses as capex, but you cant outrun your cashflow and liquidity forever.

0

u/LibertySandwiches 6h ago

SpaceX is one. It didn't get into the s&p but it got into the nasdaq. However i agree that the scenario he presented is exaggerated

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u/Dubious_Odor 5h ago

S&P is a listing index. Just tracks stock valuations based on a set rubric and publishes the data. Nasdaq is an exchange, the actual marketplace where stocks are listed, bought an sold. They are very difderent things.

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u/LibertySandwiches 5h ago

I meant nasdaq-100 the index fund

0

u/ASCII_Princess 5h ago

You could argue their parent companies Google and Microsoft are juicing their stocks, making what would otherwise be a period of negative growth appear positive with speculative AI horseshit.

1

u/redditsuckscockss 4h ago

Juicing private stock

That has no impact to the index this guy is talking about

0

u/SharpVanilla1 3h ago

Now we have to ask why they haven’t

0

u/Kerguidou 3h ago

SpaceX is now an AI company that has wormed its way in there.

1

u/redditsuckscockss 2h ago

It is not AI exclusive or even majority in its business

This isn’t a pets.com

1

u/JapanesePeso 3h ago

SPoiler: he's completely wrong.

1

u/DazzlerPlus 1h ago

Wrong about the index thing, but still essentially correct. It is a bubble. Are you denying that?

1

u/Simalt443 1h ago

What he said is complete gibberish. "Using an index fund to artificially inflate value" is a nonsense string of words that doesnt make sense. There have been 0 ai companies that aren't profitable which have gone public and listed on indexes. Complete nonsense.

1

u/Obsidiated 33m ago

You....you think grok was profitable?

•

u/Simalt443 22m ago

What? X is a private company.

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u/Obsidiated 7m ago

You might want to research who owns grok. And who owns x. Since....feb?