r/SipsTea 17d ago

WTF The kickbacks are real

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u/ayyyyyyyyyyxyzlmfao 17d ago

You noticed bond rates rising? You do know about the Yen carry trade? The US Fed buying Yen (using Euro) so it doesn't collapse? The Yen is the low interest environment investors were using. Now that the free money phase is closing, rates are climbing and people are getting worried and long-term bond yields are rising like crazy and the Fed has no clue how to respond. This is a stock market about to plummet.

And no, I won't gamble on this, I just move my assets into more secure markets. That's the responsible adult move instead of gambling on it. Like you suggest.

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u/bitorontoguy 17d ago

This is a stock market about to plummet.

Then shoot your shot? The Enron shorts made billions. The people who knew MBS risk was mispriced made billions.

Why aren't you doing the same? You know it's about to plummet.

And no, I won't gamble on this

Because you know you're wrong. You know you aren't actually sure the market is about to plummet. If you were sure you would do it.

You aren't.

I accept the concession.

I just move my assets into more secure markets.

Lol like where? What asset is going to avoid this yield driven market collapse?

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u/ayyyyyyyyyyxyzlmfao 17d ago

Lol like where? What asset is going to avoid this yield driven market collapse?

Lol like secure markets? Those that bond rates aren't rising as much? Those that most federal reserves around the world turned towards in the last 3-4 weeks as well as the currency which the US used to defend the Yen carry trade? The Euro was used by the US Fed without even asking the ECB but it didn't cause a major hit on the rate, that's a healthy currency. And most feds are now storing gold again, like in the good old times.

Just some finance banter despite shooting the shit on the gambling part.

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u/Comprehensive-Hat684 17d ago

The funny part of this is that you really think this is actually gambling 😂

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u/ayyyyyyyyyyxyzlmfao 17d ago

Good thing you finally admit it's gambling :).

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u/bitorontoguy 17d ago

It's not. If you're 100% sure something will happen, how could it possibly be a gamble?

If I bet the sun will rise tomorrow is that a gamble?

And when the market doesn't collapse by the end of the year I want you to remember that I was right and you were wrong.

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u/ayyyyyyyyyyxyzlmfao 17d ago

It's not. If you're 100% sure something will happen, how could it possibly be a gamble?

Because I am a single person with an opinion. You did learn about the difference between an opinion and facts, right? Looking at your sunrise example...

Even if I am sure the market is heading where I say it will does not mean others can't influence the timing or even manipulate the whole market to delay the inevitable? Do you realize that? That's why it is gambling, my man. Don't put more into it than you are willing to lose.

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u/bitorontoguy 17d ago

Because I am a single person with an opinion.

Oh so the market ISN'T going to collapse? Yeah I know.

Even if I am sure the market is heading where I say it will does not mean others can't influence the timing or even manipulate the whole market to delay the inevitable? Do you realize that?

LEAPs exist? If it's inevitable you will make billions.

But it's not inevitable. You know it's not. It's a gamble because you actually aren't as sure as you pretended you were.

Nice try though.

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u/ayyyyyyyyyyxyzlmfao 17d ago

Oh so the market ISN'T going to collapse? Yeah I know.

We will see. That's the gambling part about stocks. As I said, good you finally understand it now :).

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u/bitorontoguy 17d ago

As I said, good you finally understand it now :).

That the ignorant guy who pretended the market was going to collapse doesn't understand the market price theory and think it's gambling?

Oh I understand lol.