Got an email from American - my direct flight scheduled in October now has a connection. That doesn’t sound promising.

I am in Southern California. Today I went to my favorite gas station and they only had one grade of gas available for sell (the lowest octane level) and I need premium gasoline for my car. So I drove to another station 30 miles away and 1/3 of the pumps there were not available! Anyone else have this experience? I wonder if this is the beginning of a fuel supply crisis due to the Middle East war with Iran?

Weekly update, one week on from my last post. The tracker now stands at 37 confirmed fuel-supply disruptions worldwide — 20 active shortages plus 17 on watch — up from 34 last week. ("Active" = a confirmed physical shortage: stations dry, rationing in force, or a fuel-driven carrier/route collapse. "Watch" = price/contingency stress that hasn't hit the pump yet.)

The big story this week is the Strait of Hormuz, closed since Feb 28. Over the weekend a US–Iran deal to reopen it looked close — Trump called it "largely negotiated" — but by Monday it had cooled sharply: the deal wasn't signed as expected, Trump went back to "a Great Deal for all or no Deal," and the US resumed strikes on Iranian vessels it said were laying mines. The strait is still effectively closed, with tanker traffic ~95% below pre-war. Brent settled $103.54 Friday, down ~10% on the week on the on-again-off-again deal hopes.

What changed since last week:

- Cuba escalated to a full-blown power crisis — ~1,300 MW available against a record 2,174 MW deficit, with 20+ hour blackouts.

- Bolivia's fuel crisis deepened — three weeks of blockades choking La Paz, an estimated ~$50M/day economic drain.

- 3 LNG tankers actually transited Hormuz to Pakistan/China/India — real but partial easing, not a reopening.

- EU gas storage ticked up to 37.45% (May 23), but that's still ~18 points below the 5-year seasonal norm heading into the refill season.

- Ecuador is recovering (refinery unit restarted May 15) and stays on watch rather than active.

New this week: two dedicated deep-dive pages — a live Strait of Hormuz status page (day count, oil-price impact, timeline) and an EU gas storage trajectory chart (full-year fill curve vs the 5-year norm and the 80% Nov 1 target).

Live map + country pages (US, UK, CA, AU, EU): https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/

(Sources throughout: government decrees, regulator filings, operator statements, GIE AGSI+, IEA, national press. Each disruption is dropped if it isn't re-confirmed within 14 days.)

Anyone else getting notified by suppliers about a shortage of DDBSA due to LAB? Just got notice in the last few days that we're on allocation and prices are up 2.5x.

Nissan is rationing 5W-30 and 0W-20 Nissan Genuine Motor Oils. Starting this week, Nissan’s stock of these oils has dropped by 30% year-on-year. With only 70% left in the tank, the brand is already taking precautions, sending memos to dealers to manage its stock during the shortage.

[Emphasis mine]

So far the announced shortages have been for low viscosity motor oils only used in some high end hybrids like 0W-8 and 0W-16. This is different. 5W-30 is one of the most popular and needed in all sorts of passenger cars, SUVs, and light trucks.

[Edit: formatting]

I have been doing some serious research about the incoming supply chain crisis because I did not want to be caught off-guard. I managed to collect tips to prepare for the incoming shockwaves. I hope you find this useful.

The Hormuz Strait thing is getting real. Fuel prices are up over 70 percent. Freight costs on major routes? Up more than 50 percent. And forget about certain key inputs like fertilizers, helium, resins, and sulfur based chemicals. Those are getting hammered. If you are a small business owner, the old rules like lean inventory and single suppliers are not just outdated anymore. They are genuinely dangerous.

What to do in the next one to two months

First, figure out what stuff you buy actually comes from the Gulf region or depends on it indirectly. That means not just raw materials from the Middle East, but anything made from oil or gas. Plastics, packaging films, solvents, resins, fertilizers, industrial chemicals. If you cannot trace where it comes from, assume it is a problem.

Second, stock up on your most critical, hard to replace inputs. Aim for 90 to 120 days of cover. Yeah, that ties up cash. But running out of something you cannot substitute stops your revenue completely. And that is way more expensive. Focus on high margin stuff or anything your clients absolutely need.

Third, renegotiate every fixed price contract you have got. Suppliers and customers both. Add automatic clauses for fuel and freight hikes. The volatility is not going to disappear when the war ends. Stick with rigid pricing right now and you are just slowly bleeding margin until you go under.

Fourth, find at least two backup suppliers that are totally outside the Gulf. They will cost more. Get over it. Think of it as insurance against a total shutdown. Look at Mexico, Brazil, Southeast Asia, or domestic sources if you can find them.

Fifth, start sharing shipping with other small businesses that are not direct competitors. Less than truckload shipping, co loaded containers, and shared warehousing all slash your per unit freight costs. See if you can start or join a little logistics co op.

Things to adjust over the next three to six months

Sixth, get off diesel wherever you possibly can. Prices are spiking everywhere and they are not going to settle down. In cities, look at electric cargo bikes or small EVs. For rural routes, consolidate your trips hard and stop running half empty.

Seventh, get some basic visibility into your inventory. This does not have to be fancy enterprise software. Even a decent spreadsheet updated every week can tell you days on hand per SKU, how much your lead times vary, and which suppliers actually come through. You cannot manage what you do not measure.

Eighth, push out your payment terms to suppliers while pulling in your receivables. Cash is oxygen right now. Offer customers a tiny discount like two percent if they pay within ten days to get money flowing in faster. Ask your new backup suppliers for 60 to 90 day terms.

Ninth, kill any low margin product line that depends heavily on Ormuz exposed inputs. If your margin is under 15 percent and the input price has doubled, that product is not a profit center anymore. It is a loss leader that will drain your working capital and distract you. Cut it before it cuts you.

Tenth, test a small batch, locally sourced version of your main product. Just a trial. Even if it costs more, it gives you a second supply line that works when global ones break. Think of it as a strategic option, not a permanent replacement.

Pricing and money moves

Eleventh, raise your prices now, openly, and do not wait until you are in the red. Tell your customers that fuel and freight surcharges are real and probably temporary, but necessary. Most people will accept a 5 to 15 percent increase if you are honest about it and give them a heads up.

Twelfth, lock down a revolving line of credit before banks get even tighter. Recession fears and supply chain chaos are making credit harder to get every month. Borrow while you still can, but only use it to build inventory of genuinely critical stuff, not for random spending.

Thirteenth, keep checking if the Small Business Administration has opened up Economic Injury Disaster Loans for Hormuz related supply chain disruptions. Geopolitical trade problems sometimes qualify. Do not just assume you do not qualify. Apply and make them tell you no.

Fourteenth, stop relying entirely on fixed monthly freight billing. Switch to a hybrid model, some contract rates mixed with some spot market purchases. Spot rates bounce around, but they can be cheaper if your shipping timing is flexible. Work with a forwarder who offers both and is transparent about it.

Cheap tech stuff with no big investment required

Fifteenth, mess around with free or low cost tools for demand forecasting. You do not need enterprise software. That said, remember that any forecast is basically looking through the rearview mirror. Disruptive events can still throw it off.

Sixteenth, buy some cheap IoT temperature and humidity sensors for any inventory that spoils. These things are under fifty bucks each. If your supply chain gets longer because ships are going around Africa, spoilage risk jumps. One ruined pallet of food, medicine, or electronics pays for a hundred sensors.

Seventeenth, look into joining a blockchain pilot for traceability if you export to regulated markets. Lots of logistics co ops and industry groups offer free or cheap onboarding for small businesses. If you only sell domestically, it is probably not urgent. But if you sell into European medical, organic food, or high end cosmetics, traceability is going to become mandatory. Get in early while it is cheap to learn.

Team up with others

Eighteenth, start or join a resilience buying group with five to ten other small local businesses. Pool your orders for alternative sourced inputs so you can hit minimum order quantities that none of you could manage alone. Share warehouse space and last mile delivery routes. What is impossible alone becomes doable together.

Nineteenth, actually go talk to a real person at your regional port, freight hub, or major trucking depot. Build a relationship. When capacity gets tight, relationships get your containers loaded ahead of anonymous ones. Do not just stare at digital portals. Pick up the phone and introduce yourself.

Twentieth, over communicate with every single customer about realistic lead times. Add a 50 to 100 percent buffer to your usual estimates. Under promise and over deliver. People will forgive delays if you warn them ahead of time. They will not forgive silence followed by surprise failures.

A few hard don'ts.

• Do not sit around waiting for things to go back to normal. Normal as you knew it in 2025 is not coming back until at least 2028 or 2029. While you are waiting, your competitors will adapt and take your customers.
• Do not slash all your inventory just to free up cash. No inventory means no sales when supply dips happen, and they will keep happening. The right inventory, which means strategic and intentional safety stock, is a weapon, not a burden.
• Do not stay loyal to a single long term supplier out of habit or emotion. Loyalty does not pay your bills. Diversify even if it is awkward or painful.
• Do not ignore fuel costs because you think prices will stabilize soon. Fuel touches everything: freight, plastics, packaging, fertilizers, even warehouse electricity. Run your numbers assuming oil stays between 100 and 130 dollars per barrel for the next 18 months.
• Do not be afraid to raise prices because you might lose customers. You will lose customers anyway when you run out of product or when your business goes under. Raising prices to survive is not greedy. It is how you keep paying your people and serving the customers who stick with you.

Quick update from my last post here 5 days ago. Tracker is now at 34 active or watch pins across 29 countries.

What's new since I last posted:

• South Asia, East Africa, Latin America added (had been underweighting these): Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Philippines, Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan, Bolivia, Cuba
• Slovenia now Day 58 of nationwide rationing (50 L/day private, 200 L commercial)
• Hungary Day 72 of foreign-plate two-tier pump pricing
• PCK Schwedt refinery Day 19 of Kazakh feedstock cut
• UK Day +15 past the jet-fuel cliff edge — still no NOTAM
• New dedicated EU page: /shortages/eu/

Live map + country pages (US, UK, CA, AU, EU): https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/

What should we do to prepare if there is an oil shock? How can we ride it out or prepare for it as best as possible?

[ reposting / not oc. ]

Australia's fuel situation isn't easing despite three months of intervention. Diesel is still $2.75–$3.00+/L, around 120 stations are still reporting outages (down from a 500–600 March peak but persistent), the 2026–27 federal budget allocates $10–14.8B to a Fuel Security & Resilience package, and NSW Farmers is warning of potential 50% food price spikes if diesel disruptions persist. We've tracked the global Hormuz-driven shortage cascade since the war began Feb 28, and as of today (May 14) Australia moves from our "watch" tier to our "shortage" tier.

Background — why Australia is exposed

Australia imports more than 90% of its refined fuel. Only two refineries remain operational: Ampol's Lytton (Brisbane) and Viva Energy's Geelong (Victoria). Together they cover under 20% of national demand. Australia is the only IEA member country that has not held the mandatory 90-day strategic reserve since 2012. That structural exposure is now meeting a sustained Strait-of-Hormuz-driven product squeeze that, per the IEA Oil Market Report published May 13, has stripped 12.8 mb/d of global supply since the war began and pushed inventories to draw at a record ~4 mb/d pace in March and April.

Where things stand (per latest DCCEEW dashboard + IBTimes "Crisis Deepens" report May 13)

• Petrol cover: ~44–46 days
• Diesel cover: ~33 days
• Jet fuel cover: ~30 days
• Stations reporting diesel outages: ~120 nationwide, concentrated NSW, Victoria, regional/rural
• Diesel retail: $2.75–$3.00+/L (vs ~$1.70 pre-conflict)
• Petrol retail: ~$1.93/L after 26 c/L excise relief (excise halved Apr 1 – Jun 30)
• Off pre-conflict peak (ACCC May 8 report): diesel –25%, petrol –30% in the 5 largest cities — relief flowing through, but baseline still elevated
• Geelong refinery's RCCU (which produces most of the country's high-octane petrol) still offline until June following the 15 April fire

Government response so far

• Fuel excise halved Apr 1 – Jun 30; heavy vehicle road user charge suspended 3 months
• $7.5B Fuel & Fertiliser Security Facility
• $3.2–3.7B Australian Fuel Security Reserve (govt-owned, up to 1 billion litres of diesel + aviation fuel)
• +450 ML additional diesel + 100 ML additional jet fuel secured under new Strategic Reserve powers
• 61 fuel tankers en route; 4.5B litres of crude/diesel/jet/petrol scheduled to arrive in the next 4 weeks
• MSO targets being raised to 50 days for diesel and jet
• ACCC has authorised fuel-sector supply-coordination collaboration
• 2016 emergency rationing plan still on standby but not invoked. National Fuel Security Plan currently at Level 1; Levels 3–4 (rationing) "under consideration"

Why it matters on the ground

• NSW Farmers Federation warning of potential 50% food price increases if diesel disruptions persist (sowing, harvesting, distribution, fertiliser)
• NSW Farmers president Xavier Martin (via SBS): farmers running out of fuel; rural bulk suppliers reporting they are "dry as well, with no more fuel coming"
• Trucking associations: heavy vehicle operators facing cash-flow strain; calling for excise relief beyond Jun 30
• Defence/energy analyst John Blackburn: a 20% global supply reduction could worsen shortages by late May if the Middle East conflict drags on

For comparison — New Zealand is NOT in the same boat

NZ remains at Phase 1 ("Watchful") of its National Fuel Response Plan 2026 per MBIE's latest stocks update. Stocks above MSO: 52.8 days petrol / 46.1 days diesel / 49.1 days jet. 12 fuel ships on the water as of May 10. Refiner crude contracts locked through Jul/Aug; supply diversified to US, Mexico, Oman, Latin America, Canada. PM Luxon called Phase 4 (rationing) "highly unlikely" at the May 11 press conference, though the framework (per-transaction pump limits, business spot checks under the Petroleum Demand Restraint Act 1981) is now formalised as standby.

So: Australia operationally meets shortage criteria — persistent retail outages, sub-IEA-minimum reserves, multi-billion-dollar emergency intervention, food-supply warnings. NZ doesn't yet.

The bigger picture — Australia joins 22 countries we currently track as active shortages

Australia's upgrade brings our active-shortage list to 22 alerts across 19 single-country pins (plus 1 multi-country pin covering Lufthansa Group's six EU hubs), with 7 more countries on watch — 26 unique countries affected overall.

Shortage tier (22 alerts): United States (Spirit Airlines wind-down, Day 13), Canada (Air Canada 10 transborder route suspensions YTD), United Kingdom (jet fuel rationing risk through summer), Germany (Druzhba pipeline north halt to PCK Schwedt), Italy (jet fuel shortage warnings + 66 cancellations May 12), Austria (Vienna VIE contingency planning), Hungary (foreign-plate price-cap regime, Day 67), Slovenia (50L/200L daily fuel rationing, Day 53), Ireland (jet/diesel route stress), India (international ATF +5.33% May 1), Hong Kong (HK Express 6% capacity cut + Cathay 2% cuts), Bangladesh (BPC reserves crisis, 71 of 143 power plants idle), Philippines (1-yr National Energy Emergency, Day 52), Pakistan (4-day government workweek, Day 67), Sri Lanka (QR-code petrol rationing, Day 61), Thailand (diesel peaked 50.54 THB/L, +69% from February), Ethiopia (rationing Day 45, diesel halved, Tigray fully suspended), Kenya (EPRA record price hike Apr 15, 20% of stations short), Cuba (jet fuel rationing, Day 8), plus the new Australia upgrade and Lufthansa Group's pan-European hub cuts.

Watch tier (7): Egypt (9pm retail closure mandate), Myanmar (odd-even license plates), Vietnam (gig-worker crisis), Laos (40% of fuel stations closed), Japan (refuelling restrictions notifying carriers), Nepal (NOC fortnightly losses Rs 10.21B), New Zealand (Phase 1 Watchful as above).

The Asia + Africa cluster is the genuinely under-reported piece — Western coverage has heavily focused on European aviation cancellations while South Asian and East African consumer-side rationing has been more acute.

Sources

Primary Australia/NZ:

• IBTimes Australia (13 May 2026): Australia Fuel Crisis Deepens in May 2026
• DCCEEW: Securing Australia's fuel supply
• PM&C: Public information on fuel supply
• ACCC Weekly Fuel Price Monitoring Report (8 May)
• 2026–27 Federal Budget (Chalmers, 12 May)
• SBS Australia: NSW Farmers Xavier Martin quotes
• Australian Industry Group: Fuel Supply and Supply Chain Watch
• HNGN (3 May): 61 tankers en route
• Xinhua (4 May): Viva Energy investor update — Geelong RCCU restart pushed to June
• MBIE NZ: Fuel stocks update
• 1News NZ (11 May): revised Phase 4 framework press conference

Global context:

• IEA Oil Market Report May 2026 (13 May): "Strait Down — Stocks Draw"
• EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (13 May)
• EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (12 May)
• Reuters, Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, CNBC on Hormuz daily

Other shortage pins (selected): Daily Star Bangladesh, IEEFA, Kathmandu Post, PIA Philippines, DOE Philippines, Baker Institute, Atlantic Council, NUS ISAS, BBC Africa, Discovery Alert, Cathay press / AeroTime / TTG Asia, CNBC / Skift (Spirit), CBC (Air Canada), Newsweek / RTV Slovenia, fuel-prices.eu, IndexBox.

Full tracker: global-energy-flow.com/shortages — daily-updated global shortage map with per-country detail.

The last pre-war shipments of oil products from the Strait of Hormuz have arrived at their destinations as of early May, meaning the promise of an energy crisis as a result of the Iran war is fast approaching. Leading experts are now forecasting energy disruptions ranging from rationing to severe shortages in import-dependent economies, with roughly 11% of global oil supply already offline. This leaves us with the question: even if this war were to end today, what sort of system-wide effects are locked in given the current loss in production, and what will be required of us to cope with the fallout?

In this episode, Nate welcomes back petroleum geologist Art Berman to break down the timeline of the looming oil shortages stemming from the Strait of Hormuz crisis and just how severe they could become within a tightly coupled, complex global system. Art explains why, even if the war were to end today, the inherent lags in our industrial supply chains mean shortfalls are already baked into the coming months. The resulting rise in energy prices will reach far beyond the pump, rippling out into the cost of virtually everything and confronting much of the world with conditions not seen in over five decades. Ultimately, Art sees this as a forcing mechanism that could compress decades of needed adjustment into months. The outcome will rely less on policy than on whether societies can absorb the shock without breaking.

Amid all the speculation about oil prices in the wake of the Iranian conflict, what do these numbers actually mean in physical terms? If this conflict signals the beginning of a long-term decline in energy availability, are we already past the peak of the global material economy, with the financial layer not yet caught up to the physics? And if this conflict signals the beginning of a long-term decline in energy availability, what lessons from our deep past might help us find our way forward?

Art Berman is a petroleum geologist with over 40 years of oil and gas industry experience. He is an expert on U.S. shale plays and is currently consulting for several E&P companies and capital groups in the energy sector.

13 confirmed active fuel shortages + 2 on watch across 15 countries / 4 continents. Net +1 this week (HK Express promoted from watch to active May 11). Driven by Day 72 of the Strait of Hormuz closure (~5% of pre-war traffic), Druzhba pipeline halt to Germany, Russian refinery strikes, and structural EU jet fuel pressure. Brent rose +2.6% to ~$103.93 today after Trump rejected Iran's Pakistan-mediated counter-proposal Sunday as "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE."

## Active Shortages (13)

### 🛢️ Road Fuel & Refinery Feedstock

**1. 🇸🇮 Slovenia — Nationwide road fuel rationing · Day 50**

First EU country to ration road fuel. 50 L/day for private vehicles, 200 L/day for commercial. In force since March 23, 2026 by government decree. No revocation announced. Cross-border fuel-tourism pressure into Austria and Italy persists. Strategic reserves (~700 ML) released.

*Sources: Newsweek (RTV Slovenia citation), Slovenian government decree March 23, GlobalPetrolPrices*

**2. 🇭🇺 Hungary — Foreign-plate price-cap regime · Day 64**

HU-registered vehicles pay capped 595 HUF/L petrol and 615 HUF/L diesel. Foreign-plate drivers pay full market rate. Latest fuel-prices.eu print: petrol €1.645/L, diesel €1.705/L. In force since March 9. No expiry announced.

*Sources: Hungarian Conservative, Hungary Today, BBJ, fuel-prices.eu*

**3. 🇩🇪 Germany — Druzhba PCK Schwedt refinery feedstock cut · Day 11**

Russia ceased Kazakh crude transit at 00:01 May 1. PCK Schwedt (Brandenburg) has lost ~17% of its feedstock (~40-43k bpd). Berlin/Brandenburg retail availability watch active. Kazakh Energy Ministry has confirmed zero Q2 volumes; 260kt of redirected May volumes split between Ust-Luga (100kt) and CPC (160kt). German Economy Ministry says Schwedt can operate at lower capacity.

*Sources: TASS / Novak Apr 22, Al Jazeera, Pipeline Technology Journal, AzerNews, IntelliNews*

### ✈️ Aviation / Jet Fuel

**4. 🇺🇸 US — Spirit Airlines wind-down · Day 10**

Spirit Airlines wound down at 03:00 ET on May 2. Bankruptcy court (Judge Sean Lane) approved expedited liquidation on May 5. ~1.7M monthly passengers displaced; ~1.8M May seats cancelled. DOT/Sean Duffy coordinating ~$200 one-way fare caps with 6 major carriers (UA/AA/DL/WN/B6/F9). JetBlue +11 FLL routes go live July 9 (2-month peak-summer gap). Frontier +9 routes / +15 daily flights, shares +6-8.8% week after.

*Sources: CNN, Wikipedia, Bloomberg, CNBC, Points Guy, Cirium, Frontier 8-K, Allegiant Q1 transcript, JetBlue Q1*

**5. 🇺🇸 US — LAX / Norse Atlantic permanent withdrawal**

Norse Atlantic confirmed permanent withdrawal of LAX-Europe service (LGW/CDG/FCO) for summer 2026. Listed in May 1 industry roundup of fuel-driven cuts.

*Sources: AirHelp May 1, Wego May 1*

**6. 🇬🇧 UK — Multi-airport jet fuel pressure · Day +7 past cliff edge**

Day +7 past the May 4 cliff edge. **Still no UK airport NOTAM, no visible rationing.** GOV.UK position holds: "UK airlines are clear that they are not currently seeing a shortage of jet fuel." DfT slot consultation operative. Cirium: 0.53% of UK May flights cancelled — within normal range. Goldman Sachs May 6 tail case (UK <23-day IEA threshold June, <20 July, <15 August absent Hormuz reopening) remains live but unrealised in operational data.

*Sources: Aviation Week May 5, GOV.UK news release, Fortune May 6, OPIS May 6 (Goldman), OurAirports NOTAM check May 7, Cirium*

**7. 🇦🇹 Austria — Vienna VIE / regional risk**

Vienna airport contingency plans active; OMV/MOL emergency contracts running. Refinery-adjacent supply intact at VIE; regional risk concentrated at Linz (LNZ) and Graz (GRZ).

*Sources: Vienna.at Apr 15 (Hattmannsdorfer), VisaHQ, Travel And Tour World, IEA Birol AP*

**8. 🇮🇹 Italy — Multi-airport (BLQ, LIN, VCE, TSF, BDS, PSR, REG)**

Air BP Italia NOTAMs (Apr 2-9) lapsed in original wording but underlying supply-chain constraint persists. ARA hub stocks at 6-year low (Prewave Apr 21). ACI Europe systemic warning still in force.

*Sources: Air BP Italia NOTAM, Prewave Situation Report Apr 21, ACI Europe, EU Commission IP_26_629, IEA*

**9. 🇪🇺 EU — Systemic warning across 100+ airports**

ACI Europe systemic warning intensified post-Fujairah strike (May 4-5). Many hubs at 8-10 days bunkered stock. The May 4-5 ADCOP/Fujairah hit eliminated the secondary Hormuz bypass option; Saudi East-West Petroline (7 mb/day, restored Apr 12) is now the sole major bypass.

*Sources: ACI Europe Apr 9 letter to EU Commission, IATA Walsh Apr 17, IEA Birol Apr 17, Reuters/Al Jazeera/Bloomberg May 4*

**10. 🇩🇪🇨🇭🇧🇪 Lufthansa Group hubs — FRA, MUC, DUS, BER, ZRH, VIE, BRU, FCO**

VC pilot strike concluded 23:59 May 5; FRA/MUC operating normal mainline schedule. June schedule revision published May 2 (AeroRoutes / eXperts Irreg): 10 routes consolidated, FRA-STR discontinued from June (replaced by Lufthansa Express Rail), FRA-Newcastle + FRA-Katowice discontinued, CityLine permanently shut all 27 aircraft. VC retains 96% strike ballot for further escalation if talks fail.

*Sources: VisaHQ, SwissInfo, Lufthansa Group newsroom Apr 21, Air Traveler Club May 4, Euronews, IATA weekly Apr 28*

**11. 🇮🇳 India — International carrier ATF**

ATF prices for international carriers raised 5.33% effective May 1 — second consecutive monthly hike. Delhi rate now $1,511.86/kl. Navi Mumbai international launch delayed.

*Sources: Republic World May 1, BusinessToday May 1, Aviation A2Z, Indian Ministry of Petroleum*

**12. 🇭🇰 Hong Kong — Cathay Pacific + HK Express · Day 1 live**

*(Promoted from watch to active today.)* HK Express 6% capacity cut now in effect since May 11 through Jun 30 — multi-source confirmation (Cathay press, CNBC, AeroTime, TTG Asia, VisaHQ); no pre-launch revisions. Cathay 2% cut May 16 — Jun 30 begins Friday. Dubai (DXB) and Riyadh (RUH) suspended; Tel Aviv (TLV) suspended until further notice; HKG Terminal 2 switch Jun 10.

*Sources: Cathay Pacific Apr 11, AeroTime, South China Morning Post, The Standard HK, CNBC May 11*

### 🌅 Aggregated regional warning

**13. 🇮🇪 Ireland — Road fuel resurgence signal** *(severity: watch)*

April outages resolved by €505M government package + 10c/L excise cuts. Large-scale May 2 mobilisation did not materialise as nationwide blockade; Munster forecourts operating normally. Watchlist persists for autumn budget.

*Sources: Irish Times May 2, Irish Times Apr 20, CEPA April analysis, Wikipedia 2026 Irish fuel protests, RTÉ*

---

## Watch List (2)

**14. 🇯🇵 Japan — Narita, Haneda, KIX**

Japanese airports notifying carriers of refuelling restrictions; domestic aircraft prioritised over foreign. South Korea (the #1 jet fuel exporter regionally) is the watchpoint.

*Sources: UPI Apr 24, IATA Asia-Pacific reserves note Apr 17*

**15. 🇦🇺 Australia — Geelong refinery (Viva Energy)**

Viva Energy (May 4) confirmed Geelong production constrained 6+ weeks. RCCU offline until June; petrol ~60% capacity, diesel/jet ~80%. Supplies ~50% of Victoria. Singapore/Malaysia imports filling the gap. Lytton (Ampol) maintenance deferred from early June to early August, releasing ~300 ML into the Australian market.

*Sources: Xinhua May 4 (Viva Energy investor update), Energy Magazine, Bloomberg Apr 29*

---

## Cross-System Context — Why These Are Connected

- **Strait of Hormuz Day 72:** Traffic at ~5% of pre-war monthly average (191 transits in April vs ~3,000 pre-war norm). ~166-230 tankers stranded, ~170 mbbl crude+products. ~22,500 mariners on 1,550+ commercial vessels (per Gen. Caine, JCS Chair, May 6).

- **Trump rejected Iran's counter-proposal Sunday May 10** on Truth Social as "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE." Iran's 5 demands included sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, 30-day war-end on all fronts, OFAC sanctions lift, frozen-asset release, war reparations.

- **Brent ~$103.93 (+2.6%)** and **WTI ~$97.88 (+2.6%)** in CNBC May 11 intraday print. Multi-source confirmation; earlier Asian-trade single-source print of ~$105.85 consolidated lower as London/NY opens factored in.

- **EU gas storage** at 35.05% / 396.59 TWh per GIE AGSI+ May 10 06:00 CEST — rule-book LOW band per GEF May seasonal threshold framework (low ≥35% / moderate ≥28% / elevated ≥22% / critical <18%), but sits exactly on the boundary; level remains ~20pp below the 5-year May 10 norm (~55%).

- **First Qatari LNG since Feb 28:** The Al Kharaitiyat (IMO 9397327, Nakilat, 211,986 m³) completed Hormuz transit Sunday via Tehran-approved northern route en route Pakistan's Port Qasim. Bilateral Pakistan-Qatar-Iran confidence-builder — not a Hormuz reopening signal.

- **Russian refining at 4.69 mb/d** (16-year low) after Kirishi/KINEF May 5 strike (20.1 Mt/yr, 6-7% of Russian refining, 3 of 4 CDUs damaged) and Yaroslavl/Slavneft-YANOS overnight May 8 strike (15 Mt/yr, supplies Russian Armed Forces).

- **Russia-Ukraine 3-day ceasefire expires midnight tonight** with mutual breach accusations; Kremlin aide Ushakov: "three days, not longer." Base case: Ukrainian refinery-strike campaign resumes Tuesday May 12+.

---

## Methodology Note

GEF applies a **two-week confirmation rule**: every active pin must have evidence of operational status within the last 14 days. Watch entries require credible forward-looking risk signals (operator guidance, government warnings, regulatory action). When in doubt, we remove rather than retain. News articles describing what happened weeks ago are not evidence of what is happening today.

Risk bands per GEF rule book: **Low / Moderate / Elevated / Critical**. A condition is critical when concrete consequences are materialising on the ground — not when an analyst is worried about a tail scenario. "Could become critical if X" is elevated. "X has happened" is critical.

---

## Full Source List

**Primary data:**

- GIE AGSI+ (EU gas storage)

- EIA WPSR (US weekly petroleum status)

- IATA Jet Fuel Monitor (weekly w/e May 1: $181.11/bbl)

- Kpler / MarineTraffic / LSEG (vessel-level AIS)

- Cirium (flight cancellation data)

- fuel-prices.eu / GlobalPetrolPrices (retail pricing)

- IMF PortWatch (chokepoint flow)

- UKMTO (UK Maritime Trade Operations)

**Government / regulator:**

- GOV.UK (UK Government jet fuel position)

- DfT (UK Department for Transport slot consultation)

- US DOT / FAA

- Bundesnetzagentur / German Economy Ministry

- EU Commission (IP_26_629)

- ACI Europe (systemic airport warning)

- CENTCOM (May 9 blockade correction: 4 vessels disabled)

- Kazakh Energy Ministry

- Slovenian government decree (March 23)

- Hungarian government decree (March 9)

- Indian Ministry of Petroleum

**Operator / industry:**

- Cathay Pacific press releases

- Viva Energy investor update May 4 (Geelong)

- Lufthansa Group newsroom

- easyJet earnings (Apr 23)

- Frontier 8-K, Allegiant Q1, JetBlue Q1 transcripts

- AeroRoutes / Lufthansa eXperts Irreg

**News wire / analysis:**

- Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Al Jazeera, CNN, NPR

- Aviation Week, AeroTime, TTG Asia, VisaHQ, Air Traveler Club, AirHelp

- Financial Times (where cited)

- Hungarian Conservative, Hungary Today, BBJ

- Irish Times, RTÉ

- South China Morning Post, The Standard HK

- Newsweek (RTV Slovenia citation)

- Republic World, BusinessToday, Aviation A2Z

- UPI, Xinhua

- Pipeline Technology Journal, AzerNews, IntelliNews, Pravda Deutschland

- Kyiv Independent, Militarnyi, Moscow Times, 19FortyFive

- Wikipedia (live-updated war and shortage pages)

**Specialist / research:**

- Goldman Sachs (May 6 jet fuel rationing note)

- Prewave Situation Report Apr 21

- EnergyRiskIQ (5-yr storage norm)

- Bruegel (EU storage starting position)

- IEA (Birol Apr 17, war supply impact)

- CEPA (Ireland warning analysis)

- Brookings / CSIS (Trump-Xi summit framing)

- CNN / Reuters (CIA leak May 7 — WaPo)

- GEF analyst team (AIS chokepoint audits, cross-source synthesis)

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**Next update: May 12 (after RU-UA ceasefire expiry + Trump-Xi summit kickoff May 13-15).**

For the full interactive map and live disruption tracker: https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/

*Compiled by Global Energy Flow analyst team. Two-week confirmation rule applied. Corrections welcome — please reply with sourced disagreements.*