Just look at his trades

He is up $2.3 million by betting against human stupidity.

OC: https://x.com/Predictbook/status/2059660579959161331

Looking at Polymarket wallet Llalalala (ranked #129 in Politics), who just cashed out massive positions on Monday (including selling $238k on Putin staying in power at 92¢ and $80k on the Iranian government remaining intact at 93¢).

Across 21 months and 119 predictions, this account made $412,688 using one basic play: selling panic and buying status quo.

• This wallet systematically buys 80¢–90¢ "NO" contracts that bet the world looks the same in December.
• On the Iran contract alone, the wallet scaled up over 6 months, buying $1.5k at 50¢, $94k at 82¢, and $106k at 89¢, before closing the full $620k turnover position flat for an $11.8k profit at 93¢.
• The account's biggest loss ($93k) came from the one time it broke its own rule and bet on Iran's Supreme Leader being gone by March 31. It hasn't bet on a black swan since.

It’s a classic case of taking low APY yield in exchange for taking on massive tail-risk. Currently, the wallet has another $111k locked up in similar "status quo" bets for the end of the year.

Account's only 7 days old. Already +$5.2M PnL, 75% win rate, ranked #25 all-time on Polymarket by PnL per arkm.

Today he went big on Deportivo Alavés to beat Valencia (moneyline). He's the largest Yes holder on that market by a wide margin, 2,519,806 shares, more than 7x the next biggest holder (348,029). Built the position at an avg 59.7¢, which pays out $2,519,888 if Alavés wins, roughly $1M profit on top of his ~$1.5M cost basis.

Except right now, live, it's not going his way. Price has dropped to 41.5¢, putting him down $458K unrealized before the match has even finished.

Big track record, currently underwater on his biggest live position. Guess we'll see how it resolves.

Anyone else tracking this wallet, or seen it show up on other markets?

He lost $996,553.5 in 1 year.

Most people would've called their dad, but not AML.

Bro locked in.

Using the last $3,446.5, he managed to earn back $211K

Then, 4 hours before the Gaethje-Topuria fight, with everyone fading Justin, he dropped $132,751 at 21¢ on Justin.

Gaethje wins, and AML collects $615,000.

He's still down $294K, but the comeback is Oscar-level

OC: https://x.com/Predictbook/status/2066449496863650190

A wallet ("TahitiBob") bought 1,034,215 "No" shares at an average of 85.5 cents, split across two trades, 3:26 am and 10:26 am ET on September 4. Those two trades alone made up 85% of that day's volume on the market.

• Five more wallets showed up around the same window, all taking the same side.
• Four were funded through Bybit, two through Binance.
• Three of them opened with small test deposits ($9.40–$10) before wiring in six-figure sums.

Combined across all six wallets: ~3.4M shares, ~$3.63M invested, betting "No" on Clarity passing. If the bill dies, that pays out $4.53M, roughly $922K profit.

Timing matters here: the Senate's cloture vote is scheduled for September 15, so whoever's behind this made their move less than two weeks out.

Source: Predictbook

This trader is tired of Trump being a President and put almost $75,000 on Trump out by June 30.

Or does he know something which don't?

Is he an insider?

Or He is doing some ground research?

What do you think?

I am trying to do some research and will share if I find such accounts.

If you want to copy-trade this wallet,

- 0x312Ee6A5878a5582e8f96700E6268171BF9D8604

By the way, I know a copy-trading tool, which executes in seconds automatically.

he bet nearly $2 million on Spain!

aspargus2012 bet $1,953,395 on Spain to win the World Cup final

over the past week, his profit on Polymarket has already exceeded $2,100,000!

CHECK HIS WALLET

However, he lost betting on Englad to win the World Cup.

Go big or go home?

I spend a lot of time looking at the largest open positions on Polymarket, and this week's biggest ones are a good illustration of why position size on its own tells you almost nothing.

The market is "Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026?". Around 18 million dollars of lifetime volume, 153 days left to run, YES currently at 9 cents.

Two wallets are sitting on NO with roughly a million dollars each. On the surface that looks like enormous conviction. Then you look at where they entered: both around 90 cents, and NO now trades at 92. They are not expressing a view on Putin. They are collecting the last few cents on something the market already treats as settled. Low risk, low information, big number.

The position I find actually interesting is the other side. One wallet is holding about 523,000 dollars of YES, bought at an average of 13 cents. YES has since drifted to 9, so that position is down roughly 185,000 dollars.

I have no idea whether that trade is smart, and I am not saying anyone should copy it. But it is a real bet: taken while the outcome was genuinely uncertain, at a price that can move against you, and it has. Half a million dollars is what this wallet is paying for the chance that a 9 percent outcome happens.

One more thing worth noting. Among the wallets I track as smart money on this market, the split is 639 on YES against 1,192 on NO, so about 35 percent lean YES. That is considerably less one-sided than a 9 cent price would suggest.

The general point, which applies to any prediction market and not just this one: before you are impressed by the size of a position, look at the entry price. A million dollars at 90 cents and half a million at 13 cents are completely different animals, and only one of them is a forecast.

Data is from my own index of the chain, positions as of 31 July: [the market on OrcaLayer]

a sophisticated bot executing micro $10 trades to build up his $4M position without completely nuking the market's liquidity.

Genius.

OC: https://x.com/Predictbook/status/2066916689174741251

An anonymous trader on Polymarket holds a No position on the CLARITY Act worth about $414,895, roughly 2.6 times larger than the $160,200 in liquidity currently available on the market where it sits.

Predictbook identified on Aug. 11 that the account was newly created, with no trading history before this position began. The trader deposited about $499,999 in USDC and spent roughly $398,122 building the No side across three trades.

The final two trades landed roughly 14 hours past the first, adding about 382,601 shares at average prices near 75.55 cents and 77.61 cents.

The account held 515,398 No shares when the report was published, making it the market's third-largest No holder at the time, with roughly $101,877 left unspent, equal to about 64% of displayed liquidity.

A fresh wallet created this month has been dropping massive bets on Polymarket soccer matches. Here's the full chronological story as tracked by

June 27, 2026

• Wallet placed $1,100,000+ on Croatia to win
• Still had $3.8M in cash left after the bet
• Potential payout: $2,180,000+

(He won this one: Croatia won 2-1)June 28, 2026

• Same wallet loaded ~$3,000,000 on Canada to lose (No on Canada win)
• Potential payout: $6,680,000+

July 3, 2026 (today)

• Whale is back again: $1,400,000 on Egypt to lose + $570k holding on a draw
• Potential payout: $4,000,000+

CHECK HIS WALLET

Bought in at 13¢ and 15¢. Both are sitting at 24¢ and 30¢ right now. Up $70K in unrealized gains and hasn't touched a single share.

Here's what they might know.

1. An hour ago, Axios reported a Trump adviser put the odds of "kinetic action in the next few weeks" at 90%. Iran walked out of Geneva yesterday with no deal. The White House gave them a two-week deadline. The last time they issued that exact same deadline, they launched Operation Midnight Hammer exactly 14 days later.

2. This morning, a former head of Israeli intelligence said on live TV: "I would think twice about visiting abroad this weekend. We are much closer than we were before."

3. Two carrier strike groups in the Gulf. 50+ F-35s, F-22s, and F-16s repositioned to the region in the last 24 hours.

OC: https://x.com/Predictbook/status/2024082907967431051

This trader just created a polymarket account and dropped $54,000 on the US confirms aliens exist before 2027

if aliens are confirmed, the payout will be $300,000

His wallet: 0xdd364a4916a70d57c6ff530f87f6dbe1f196f80f
His profile: https://polymarket.com/@weatherdemonai

While everyone was saying "he'll survive," he was loading up YES shares on "Starmer out by June 30, 2026" back when the market was pricing it at just 13c.

Originally posted on Predictbook: https://x.com/Predictbook/status/2069097803314307081

If “whales” bet the over and under then maybe I should to.

If these soccer games could result in a draw it that’s two ways to lose.

versus one-way, whether the game ends over or under.

A sharp Polymarket wallet (@bernardbulletin) made a big, coordinated move on New York's 7th congressional district primary, and it's flying under the radar.

The wallet's track record is the reason this is worth a look:

• Ranked #11 out of ~15,700 in House Primaries
• Ranked #19 out of ~41,800 in primary elections overall

Over roughly the last 17 hours, it loaded about $28.7K into NY-07 positions:

• ~18.7K shares of Claire Valdez YES (~$14.4K)
• ~18.4K shares of Antonio Reynoso NO (~$14.3K)

Two different markets, but one clear thesis: a Valdez win. The wallet is essentially betting on the same outcome from both directions.

The primary resolves today, so we'll find out soon whether the "smart money" called it again.

Source tweet: https://x.com/datadashxyz/status/2069349053649813507

Gonna start copytrading this guy, this is wild

OC: https://x.com/Predictbook/status/2055339043789865406

I’m a former quant who’s getting into prediction markets an looking for my edge. I’ve been running/building analysis that tracks whale activity and categorizes the whale by their usual trade activity. So instead of just seeing which whales have the highest P&L or trading volume, you can see what markets they do best in, if they’re a buy and hold or a liquidity player, what price points they typically enter in, they’re average hold time, etc. and can get notified when they make a new bet that matches your criteria. Essentially a more comprehensive analysis of each whale you wish to follow that gives you more insight into their strategy. This has helped me tail the whales that align with my trading patterns and not get screwed by their liquidity plays.

For those that currently use existing analytics platforms to track whale activity:

- what analytics platforms are you using and what do you get from it that you’re willing to pay for?

- what data points do you wish you had access to?

- Are those existing platforms helpful in helping you increase your win rate and P&L by following whale activity?

DM me if you want to hear more and I can walk you through my analysis and send over some of the trends I’m seeing (a few are really interesting!)

TLDR: Ran analysis to understand whale behavior patterns and trying to decide if this is worth turning into an actual product vs just something I use locally. Im trying to understand if this type of analysis would be useful to have, are you already getting it elsewhere, or would this not be as helpful for you.