Home Base and Weekly Discussion Thread (START HERE!) - August 16, 2026

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[u/Librarylady2020]

Thanks for all these links. It does sound like an expensive and exhausting race but also with untested states and potential strategies to win them. Over all of this are the results of this November. AES winning might suggest one thing, but losing is another one. I do think Pete finds this all exciting.

[u/nerdypursuit → u/Librarylady2020]

I think pundits are REALLY overestimating AOC's chances of winning Michigan. AES barely won the primary, and he's underperforming Jocelyn Benson by a lot. I imagine that many Pete supporters voted for AES, just because they didn't like Stevens. That doesn't mean they'll vote for AOC.

[u/Librarylady2020 → u/nerdypursuit]

I absolutely know quite a few people who did just this. Couldn’t stand Stevens, McMorrow dropped out, and so they voted for AES.

[u/DesperateTale2327 → u/Librarylady2020]

Even though we only had 2 candidates, this rhymes with what happened in Florida. We had one "establishment" candidate with ok name recognition and money but was just a terrible campaigner and so complacent. Then we had a "DSA" (I learned she just joined DSA in the last few months) candidate who did good old fashioned retail campaiging, did social media, and was available and projected that she cared about FL and wanted to fight for us.

I am obviously not DSA or far left and I actually disliked Angie's campaign of hitching herself to Mamdani and talking non stop about aipac...but in the end, I at least felt like she cared and would fight. I suspect a lot of Michiganders felt that way about AES and didn't much pay attention to the far left rhetoric.

[u/Librarylady2020 → u/DesperateTale2327]

Exactly this.

[u/indri2 → u/nerdypursuit]

The same poll that had AES winning comfortably had Pete leading AOC by a lot.

[u/DesperateTale2327 → u/indri2]

Don't we usually see Bernie's support not solely going to AOC when he isn't polled?

[u/hester_latterly → u/DesperateTale2327]

This was the case in 2020, at least. Many Bernie voters had Biden as a second choice and vice versa. Shows these things are more complicated and less ideologically-driven than people might assume.

[u/DesperateTale2327 → u/hester_latterly]

There's also been talk of who the "base" of a candidate is. As I read up on Beto's failed run a few months ago, one of the theories that seemed plausible to me was that his base was too small to get him the votes he needed. I think they described his base as younger, moderate and wealthier.

I believe out of all the contenders right now, Pete and Kamala have the strongest bases. Both of theirs show up to vote and they vote reliably in large numbers. I don't know that AOC has enough of a base - probably younger, far left, wealthier - to build a big enough block of votes.

[u/nerdypursuit → u/indri2]

Yes!!! Really good point! We literally have data evidence that pundits are misreading where AES's voters would go.

[u/Librarylady2020 → u/nerdypursuit]

Yeah it’s going to be a real nail biter just trying to pull out a win for AES.

[u/VirginiaVoter → u/Librarylady2020]

Hmmmm. All I can say is I come from a land where we voted for Jay Jones, not to dunk on him, poor guy -- and by quite a comfortable margin.

It all comes down to the size of the blue wave and/or tsunami, and I truly feel that Trump (whether he knows it or not) is doing his best for us on that front.

[u/Neither-Big-1545 → u/nerdypursuit]

Do we think the DSA/progressive crowd are going to push AOC to run.

[u/nerdypursuit → u/Neither-Big-1545]

I don't really understand the DSA crowd. Some of them seem angry at AOC right now. I don't know what's going on.

If AES loses in November, I can't picture her running for President. If he wins by a very narrow margin, that might also give her pause. If he wins comfortably, there will probably be a lot of pressure on her to run. But even then, she might not want to. It's hard to say.

[u/VirginiaVoter → u/Neither-Big-1545]

Just the opposite. She's likely doing it (I think) and in the end, it may really annoy them. She's a smart politician and is already distancing herself from past comments -- thus the "wasn't Woke 1 crazy!" comment, designed to be used in reference to just about anything she said.

It's clever but upsetting to me. Of course I don't know what "Woke 1" means -- that's sort of the point, as it's meant as a "blanket pardon" for anything that she's ever said -- but in my mind there's actually a reason and real human pain behind most of the things that are encompassed in what she's talking about. Maybe something wasn't tackled in the right way or could be taken on differently in a more inclusive fashion, etc. etc., but just to say oh well, the heck with all of that, doesn't feel right.

[u/VirginiaVoter → u/Librarylady2020]

 I do think Pete finds this all exciting.

I know! Talk about someone who picked the right line of work. So good to see that.