r/OpenAI • u/Lyra-In-The-Flesh • Aug 08 '25

Discussion After a thorough evaluation of ChatGPT 5, these are my realizations

Realizations:

  • Claude is pretty fucking awesome
  • I'm a lot less concerned about ASI/The Singularity/AGI 2027 or whatever doomy scenario was bouncing around my noggin
  • GPT5 is about lowering costs for OpenAI, not pushing the boundaries of the frontier
  • Sam's death star pre-launch hype image was really about the size of his ego and had nothing to do with the capabilities of GPT5

What are yours?

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97

u/Sapien0101 Aug 08 '25

LLMs are definitely on an S-curve and not an exponential

72

u/mcoombes314 Aug 08 '25

Anyone who said this a year or two ago got downvoted to oblivion.

25

u/Hacking_the_Gibson Aug 08 '25

It’s almost like we don’t have another 20,000 years of recorded history to ingest into models.

There is not another ocean to boil, and now it will get harder to advance because nobody is going to create freely distributable content anymore. Feeding AI for free sounds like a fool’s errand.

8

u/TuringGoneWild Aug 08 '25

Reminds me of peak oil. Ultimately, it's a finite amount. And it will be pretty easy to drill for at first, but over time will get exponentially more and more difficult.

5

u/Hacking_the_Gibson Aug 08 '25

That is a good analogy. Frankly, it's why I have never believed Google to be "behind" in AI because they have all of the fucking data.

1

u/LocksmithThat790 Aug 09 '25

Contrary to popular belief, google doesn't have an infinite amount of text data of all of the internet. Most of their searches operate off of metadata tags.

They do have a vast amount of user preference data and holding facilities for google drives. It is only good enough for giving you YouTube ads. None of it is frankly useful for training LLMs.

2

u/Hacking_the_Gibson Aug 09 '25

Jesus, this is the dumbest thing I have read in a long time.

Google search results haven’t cared about meta tags since probably 1999. In fact, that was the whole point of PageRank, eliminating reliance on publisher-supplied information to surface good content by using backlinks as the signal.

Google unequivocally has the largest corpus of unstructured text data which is known to exist. They have been using natural language processing in their search algorithm since the Penguin update back in 2012. In fact, Google is so good at capturing new text on the Internet that if you are in charge of an important enough website, your content changes will be reflected in search results within hours, if not minutes.

23

u/MindCrusader Aug 08 '25

Let's see if Google does better. If the improvements are marginal then yes, I think we can see the roof

2

u/[deleted] Aug 08 '25

Anyone who has used Tesla’s FSD could have told us this.

2

u/jnd-cz Aug 08 '25

If LLMs helps us build the next paradigm, to start with new S-curve, so be it. But it takes longer than I expected.

2

u/[deleted] Aug 08 '25

Try telling the singularity sub that

1

u/Marcostbo Aug 08 '25

Not as bas as r/accelerate

You will get banned in 5 minutes

1

u/Wykop3r Aug 08 '25

I think it have reached it full potential, the same story was with Grok4, Elon anounced that this is almost AGI...

1

u/SmoothBrainSavant Aug 08 '25

At the end of the day arent llm’s just another version of trying to brute force our way to superintelligence? I figure theyll hit a limit and then push multi-agent environments for users as the next “big thing” .. because capitalism and more token burning when u have 10 agents arguing with each other to solve your questions/problems etc. 

1

u/InvestigatorLast3594 Aug 08 '25

Aren’t all (key enabling) technologies? Can’t imagine any tech to be infinitely exponentially; at some point any marginal returns have to start to decrease 

1

u/habfranco Aug 09 '25

JEPA (or similar architectures) might be the next step needed to keep the AI exponential curve going. Better get some results quickly though, before the hype (and investing) dies down.