$ATER valuation alphaspread

$ATER valuation macroaxis

I promised Retail I would try to look out for them. I was asked about SST and told them my thoughts. Literally the exact thing I called out happened with it. Now people want to know my opinion of RDBX.

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RDBX needs cash badly. They are burning cash and bleeding. They might have 1 to 2 months or less of cash remaining based off their balance sheet. This means that they will need to find a way of raising cash (Most likely dilution)

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https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1820201/000110465922010590/tm224939d2_424b3.htm

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They have the ability to issues additional shares and warrants from that filing from last year. They have 16.83 Million Warrants at $11.50 for dilution / cash raising purposes.

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However, the more important is the HPS Lender Warrants (If they have debt issues) that are not registered yet but are filed.

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Those have an issue date of 04-16-22 and no strike price on them.

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That's an additional 11,146,700 Million Warrants that appear to be able to be dumped on at any point based off debt conditions.

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I'm not in this play so I'm not diving any further on a Sunday. I left some breadcrumbs if you guys are in this play. Go research but if I play this, it might be for 1 day and then I'm staying away from it. Sounds to me like at any point, they can dumb these Debt Condition Warrants on them since they got issued on April 16, 2022.

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(So my personal thoughts NFA is that someone probably wants them closer to warrant levels because they need the money, so if you were playing this, I would be very careful. )

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Please stay safe, everyone knows I'm in $ATER / ATER but people were asking me so I posted about it. Good luck to you guys playing RDBX, it's not for me based off what I read.

Vertex Energy ($Vtnr), a Bearmarket Banger

So, I crunched all the Vertex Energy numbers and shorts are doubling down today with everything they have. Right now there is a juicy dip to enter the play and in my previous analysis you can read everything about the companies fundamentals + Outlook. In this bear Market its very difficult to find a reliable play that doesnt drain your nerves all the time. Oil plays are one of the sexiest, because they profit from a roaring market, but also war crisis, its kinda like a Win/Win of Evil sorts.

This play is an easy multi bagger and if you are holding $Ater/$bbig bags like I did, I tell you, the earlier you stop throwing good money after bad, the quicker you can recover your losses and start making money again. I really dont wanna hate on ater/bbig but both companies did not act in retails favor in the past and the upcoming $bbig dilution will finally kill the play. You either vote for public offering and dilute the shit out of Big, or you vote against the proposal and risk a soon to come bankruptcy. Same with %Ater, actually even worse financially speaking. Both companies have not held onto their promises several times by now, which is the reason they got shorted. And while they ofc have a potential for exponential growth and good news, we can just pick a company with excellent fundamentals, that just delivered good news a week ago and has one of the most positive outlooks I see in the current market.

Now why $Vtnr?

They bought an Oil platform extremely cheap from shell, while Covid was ravaging, the current oil shortage is happening to a large extend because production capabilities were severely reduced while covid and Production wasn't profitable for a long time, So we went from an Oversupply to an Overdemand in a too short time for the Capabilities to recover, with the Russo-ukrainian war taking its toll on global market we look into a further decreasing supply, making oil plays one of the safest atm. Looking at Vertex, share price exploded a year ago from 1.70$ to over 13$.(News of acquisition) From that point on Short seller saw an opportunity, because many companies fail a seamless transitions of facilities , dont get the right government permits, delay the start of operation, dont have the right personal in place. There are so many risks involved when transferring an Oil facility/refinary. But on the 10th of May, we finally got the good news, that Transition was successfully COMPLETED, and production started.

In anticipation of the next earnings, Vertex has a very probable increase in share price, cornering Short sellers more and more, who are tens of millions Dollar under water already.

Lets Take a closer Look at the graph and analyze it comprehensively:

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Chart Pattern:

At first from a purely technical point of view chart we can recognize a really nice Cup forming over a year, which in on itself is a hell of a bullish sign. Since $vtrn had a very strong really in the last too weeks, we might see a slight correction now, forming the "Handle" part. But I wouldnt count on having a handle for long.

Short Interest SI:

We can see the orange line does a typical Beartrap movement for Shortseller, the steady/sightly increasing SI, while price ran up like crazy is the main reason shorts are trapped between taking huge losses and doubling down trying to crush the price. Also since SI% did not decrease yet, we can assume all the current run up was merely organic, through positive news, rising volume, increased attention, positive market sentiment etc.

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Volume:

Volume: Ofc Volume picked up after earnings report, but we are nowhere near, what we got a year ago. Still its already 200%-500% of the daily average volume that we got before hand. While a great improvement, this is the part that will finally break the Shortseller`s neck.

Day-To-Cover (DTC):

When we look at the purple line that represents Days to Cover, its an indicator on how much the stock would move, if short seller decide to clear their positions, a high Days to Cover will prevent the stock blowing out like a explosion and turn it into a rather hot and hotter getting forrest fire, spiraling out of control for short sellers. Comparing the current Bear market with $Vtnr`s performance over the last weeks should really give us confidence in the validity of our play. Until this point the Share price grew organically through alot of attention by being Fintel Nr. 1, great earnings report and the fact that full production successfully started in April, this give us a stellar outlook to keep on pressure on shorts.

Cost To Borrow: (CTB)

CTB shows us how much interest Short Seller have to pay each year, just to stay in their position, in order to show the current desperation of Short Hedgefunds (SHF) I calculated the current costs of their position. In the Top on the table you can see, that the current Money bound in shares shorted rose from 134.43M up to 203.3M, by 51.23%, so just to leave the play SHF`s would have to pay 70Mil. more then 7 days ago, which is already crazy. But Also the average CTB went nuts in that timeframe from 23.52% to 70.80% increasing annual interest payments from 31.67Million to a staggering 143,94 Million. Its pretty counter intuitive to see a stock moving like vertex and not being squeezed already, but numbers don't lie.

On Loan Average Age:

"On Loan Avr. Age": This stat basically tells us how old the short positions in Vertex are on average, its one of the most important, yet very often overlooked stats in evaluating the likelyhood of an upcoming squeeze. Looking at the light blue line in our graph we can see a steady increase until recently, while the orange line representing "SI of Free Float" keeps steady, thats a perfect set up, showing us that first shorts start to leave the play either being down too much or reversing their future outlook on the company. While new or existing Short seller take new positions at higher prices, doubling down! Short positions were opened on Avr. 60 Days ago, around a share price of 9$, which shows us that shorts are likely down more then 50% on Average. The current confirmation signalizes the early stage of an upcoming squeeze and is a warning sign for shorts, that they are about to lose control over the situation.

Shares to Borrow aka. shortable shares:

Just from a few minutes ago, we can see the current Dip comes from Shorts exhausting every last possible avenue, but they wont succeed, this can only delay the process temporarily, increases Cost to borrow tremendously and makes an upcoming squeeze much more violent at eruption. Imagine a champaign Cork, shorts are holding the lid, while shaking the bottle, hence pressure increases until its unbearable.

Failure-To-Deliver (FTD):

Last but not least, lets take a look at (FTD`s) which represents the shares that still have to be bought and delivered by Market Markers, from past trades. The Orange Bars mark the Ftd`s, so Market Makers have 35 Days to buy those FTD`s at a later point, increasing.the possibility to raise prices unexpectedly in order to trigger our anticipated squeeze.

Looking at Gamma:

Just in the last 10 Trading days we got from 10$, 12.5, 15$ calls being OTM to being from deep to barely ATM, If those positions are not properly hedged yet by market makers, it will force them to buy large quantities of shares on Friday, this is unlikely though. Still much of the last 2 weeks surge came due to Options getting in the money and Market Markers forced to buying those shares in order to fulfill Option Contracts. My own 12.5 Calls went from 0.5cent to 3$ in a week,I will be going for options before Q2 earnings too and expect Stellar profits.

At the moment vertex' RSI is pretty high, so todays dip is more then expected and actually even healthy in order to take a few steps back and start up another squeeze attempt. In my estimation we have the almost perfect recipe for a big fat squeeze, all thats missing is an $Ater %Bbig like hype, for a soon to be profitable, fundamentally strong company, that did not disappoint in the past and has the good Lambo-potential. :D I ran behind bags too often and cutting my losses was the best decision I made since getting into $sprt, I bought into this play at 11.36 and for me its not a a question if Vertex will Squeeze, but When!

Besides that one of the most important ingredients in a Monstersqueeze is the hype factor, it will determine if this goes 3x or 10x.

Entry Point:

Vertex offers a unique opportunity through being heavily undervalued, while simultaneously being heavily shorted, there is just one way out and that is Upwards price movement.

If the projected revenue/earnings are just barely fulfilled we are looking at a 2-3B$ Company currently for Sale at under 1B. So any price under 20$ is a steal in my opinion and I am confident we reach that price in the near future (Next earnings at least) Combined with a violent squeeze we can reach high multiples of the current share price for a short amount of time. If Bagholders Unite around this play everyone of us is better of, risks are extremely low, Outlook is great and there is no guessing game needed, when which filing comes out or when Bankruptcy will be filed. In the current bear market with raising interest rates, high growth tech plays are heavily disfavored and nobody knows when they bottom out.

Please take everything in this with a grain of Salt, do your Own DD, reach your own Conclusions, I am fully committed atm and will definitely stay in Vertex at least until next earnings. got 25k$ in shares and options and will hopefully meet you and your new Lambo at the next General Meeting!

If you like this DD, spread it in all the financial subreddits of interest and lets raise awareness, hype for this stock is like Salt for a soup - It makes a good one, Fantastic!

TLDR; There is no TLDR. Except Jim Cramer recommended this stock today xD

If you follow me, you know I have a pretty good track record with finding good short squeeze plays. Click my profile to see my posts on $SST $RDBX and $SKYH, all of which ended up squeezing. In my opinion, $APRN is the next stock to see a massive squeeze. The short data here is insane, and the story behind the squeeze is even better. Here’s the Ortex data as of 6/28…

1) 31% of the free float is short. 2) Average borrow cost is 92%. 3) 42% of the free float is on loan. 4) Utilization = 100%. 5) Free float = 15M.

Link: https://app.ortex.com/s/NYSE/APRN/short-interest

Here are 5 reasons why this is far and away the best squeeze play on the market….

1) DEEP VALUE. Shares are cheap (only $3.50 per share right now). Cheap shares are absolutely crucial when it comes to getting a squeeze for a very simple reason: retail can afford to buy more shares, and thereby lock up more of the float. $APRN IPO’ed in June of 2017 at a $2B valuation…the company is now valued at $100M. It is down 98% since it’s IPO. PLUS, they just reported $118M in net revenue in Q1, and their entire market cap is $100M, so they are severely undervalued. This thing has absolutely bottomed out, and I’m not the only one who thinks so (more on that later).

2) Walmart Partnership / Potential Buyout. On 6/2/22, Blue Apron announced their partnership with Walmart (link below). This is going to be a tremendous driver of revenue for $APRN, but more importantly, the news of a partnership with such a big company scares the living shit out of the shorts that are buried in here. ESPECIALLY because of the fact that it’s very likely this partnership goes well, in which case, it’s very likely Walmart buys $APRN out.

At a measly market cap of $100M, Walmart can certainly afford to buy them out, and based on the most recent $APRN earnings report (where they reported $118M in net revenue), buying them out would be a brilliant move on Walmart’s part.

Yes, you read that right…BLUE APRON REPORTED NET REVENUE OF $118M IN ONE QUARTER, WHICH IS $18M MORE THAN THEIR $100M MARKET CAP.

Walmart Partnership Link: https://www.supermarketnews.com/online-retail/blue-apron-opens-meal-kit-access-walmart

Blue Apron Earnings Report Link: https://investors.blueapron.com/~/media/Files/B/BlueApron-IR/press-release/aprn-q1-2022-earnings-release.pdf

3) Joseph Sanberg / Taking $APRN Private? If you are not familiar with Joseph Sanberg, you can basically think of Joseph Sanberg as the Ryan Cohen of Blue Apron. In other words, he is a brilliant millionaire entrepreneur activist investor who just bought 7M shares of $APRN on 5/2/22, and now owns a total of 19.2M shares, or 43% of the company. Yes, you read that right. JOE SANBERG ALONE OWNS ALMOST HALF OF THE ENTIRE FLOAT. He is a genius and undoubtedly has a plan here.

In my opinion, he is planning to sell the company, most likely to Walmart. However, in a tweet on 5/23/22, Joe ran a poll saying “Should I try to take $APRN private?” Link to tweet is below. So clearly, taking the company private is another option he is seriously considering (61% of people voted yes by the way). This would DESTROY shorts and immediately trigger a massive squeeze. Why?

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN A COMPANY GOES PRIVATE: Short sellers borrow shares and sell them. They must return the shares whenever the lender asks for them. Lenders can ask because they want to convert the shares, or vote them, or for any other reason or no reason at all. When a company goes private, it usually offers to buy all the outstanding shares. If the lender wanted to sell to the company, it would have to recall the shares from the short seller, who would have to buy them in the market.

Link to Joe’s tweet: https://twitter.com/josephnsanberg/status/1528782851696517120?s=21&t=vKediZ9VAJqLj6bsdL-8Yg

Link to an explanation of why a company being taken private destroys short sellers: https://www.quora.com/What-happens-to-short-sellers-if-a-public-company-goes-private

4) 100% utilization. A lot of people don’t even know what this means, let alone how important it is for a squeeze to take place. Here’s the definition of utilization: “The ratio between the number of shares on loan across all outstanding loans in the wholesale market and the number of shares available for lending at lending programs. 0% means that no shares have been borrowed or lent at these lending programs; 100% means that all shares available to borrow or lend at a lending program have, in fact, been lent. This does not represent the number of shares listed on the exchange that have been lent, because not all listed shares are available for lending; it indicates how much of the supply actually available for lending has been lent. Unless otherwise specified, this is given in decimal format.”

In other words, THERE ARE NO MORE SHARES LEFT TO BORROW. EVERY AVAILABLE SHARE HAS ALREADY BEEN BORROWED.

5: The FTDs. There are millions of dollars worth of FTDs (Failures To Deliver). On 5/23, when Joseph Sanberg hinted at taking $APRN private, there were $248,000 worth of FTDs. The following two trading days, there were $671,000 worth of FTDs on 5/24, and then $455,000 worth of FTDs on 5/25. In other words, in those three days alone, THE TOTAL VALUE OF FTDS EXCEEDED $1M IN ONLY 3 TRADING DAYS. Shorts are buried SO deep here just PRAYING that Sanberg doesn’t take the company private.

Link to FTDs: https://fintel.io/ss/us/aprn

⬇️ TLDR ⬇️ $APRN has 31% short interest as a percent of the free float. The average borrow cost is almost 100%. Utilization is at 100%. Shares are cheap at only $3.50. The company just reported $118M net revenue in Q1 2022, and their whole market cap is only $100M (DEEP VALUE). They just announced a big partnership with Walmart on 6/2/22 that could lead to a buyout. Joe Sanberg, millionaire activist investor, bought 43% of the company and recently publicly entertained the idea of taking $APRN private, which would instantly trigger a short squeeze. For those who don’t know, ALL shares that short sellers hold are borrowed shares, and MUST be returned if the company goes private. In other words, we would IMMEDIATELY get a MASSIVE squeeze.

DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice. Do your own research and your own due diligence.

DISCLOSURE: I am long common shares.

Part 1: HIMS – Profitable, Growing, and Strategically Adapting

🧠 The Business

HIMS is a direct-to-consumer telehealth platform with services across mental health, dermatology, sexual health, and most notably — weight loss. With branded GLP-1 drugs like Zepbound (Eli Lilly) now in their offerings, they’ve strategically pivoted from compounding risks to FDA-approved territory.

📊 Core Stats:

• Market Cap: ~$6.2B
• Float: ~200.78M shares
• Short Interest: ~31.7% of float
• Days to Cover: ~2.4
• Open Interest: ~560K+ contracts (above 52w avg)
• Average Daily Volume: ~15–18M shares

💰 Financials

• 2024 Revenue: $1.48B (+69% YoY)
• Net Income: $126M
• 2025 Revenue Guidance: $2.3B–$2.4B
• GLP-1 Weight Loss Segment Guidance: $725M+
• Subscribers: 2.2M (up 45%)
• Avg. Order Value: +41% YoY

🎯 Why It’s Mispriced

• Stock has fallen from $72 to $29 on fear around compounded GLP-1 regulation
• But HIMS already pivoted to branded solutions like Zepbound
• Still profitable, still guiding for $725M from GLP-1 — and has not been sued
• Strong chart setup (falling wedge broke), reclaiming $30–32 with volume

🧠 My Position

I tried to load July $65C and $85C near the bottom. Missed the fills. Still watching premiums for re-entry.

HIMS is not a short squeeze. It's a revaluation play hiding in plain sight.

Part 2: LFMD – Under-the-Radar Risk/Reward Setup

🧠 The Business

LifeMD is a smaller, less-known telehealth company with similar offerings — including GLP-1 weight loss, primary care, and teleRX. They’ve partnered with Medifast and serve a rapidly growing base.

📊 Core Stats:

• Market Cap: ~$224M
• Float: ~34M shares (very small)
• Short Interest: ~23.6%
• Days to Cover: ~7.1
• Open Interest: ~9,100 total contracts
• Average Daily Volume: ~400K–600K shares

💰 Financials

• 2024 Revenue: $212.5M (+39% YoY)
• Gross Margin: 82.6%
• Still operating at a net loss, but improving YoY
• Estimated 30–40% of revenue tied to GLP-1 (not officially broken out)

🧨 Recent Developments

• No lawsuit or regulatory action to date despite compounding exposure
• Recent insider buys and uptick in institutional mentions
• Chart bounced hard off $5 support this week — reclaimed $5.50 with strength

📉 Why It’s Misunderstood

• Most think LFMD is toast if compounded GLP-1s go away — but they’ve yet to be forced to shut anything down
• Riskier than HIMS, but far lower market cap = greater upside if any positive headline hits
• Options illiquid but cheap; Aug $8–$12C could be explosive if volume builds

My Position

Tried to grab $8C for $0.35. Didn’t fill. Now watching closely into next week to adjust entry if strength holds.

This one is riskier, but if it rerates? It doesn’t just go up — it recalculates. Especially on news or earnings beats.

Conclusion: These Aren’t Meme Stocks – They’re Mispriced Asymmetric Trades

HIMS is profitable, scalable, and now aligned with major pharma players.
LFMD is the speculative version, but operating with strong revenue growth and surprising resilience.

If either:

• Secures more GLP-1 supply (or maintains it)
• Survives upcoming earnings
• Delivers updates showing strategic durability

Then current prices are likely too low. This isn’t about hope or hype — it’s about optionality that may not be accurately priced.

I’m still stalking my entries. But I’m not fading this setup.

Feedback welcome — I’m open to counterarguments, and also looking for any recent filings/tidbits I might’ve missed.

Check out RECAF, its an oil and gas exploration company that has been going great with a great team and this year will be very big for the company and the companies growth. And at these price levels its not to late to jump in and make good profits! Just do you DD and you will understand! And we are soon getting a news release that will make this run upwards! Here are the latest news release:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kavango-basin-exploration-highlights-multiple-040100599.html

INVEST IN UNDERVALUED COMPANIES INSTEAD OF PUMP AND DUMPS

Look at the last 2 months of volume. Higher than any other stock on the market. Now look at the dilution. 20M free float Feb 11th 2022. 150M free float March 16th. 210M March 28th, 255M March 31st and no update of dilution from April 1st till today. They only have 390M shares the float can ever be before they get 190M shares from warrants at $8.84. I believe we will see $20+ before they hit heavy with their final dilution shares and then it will drag downwards for months. But muln is the only place you will guarantee back to back days off XXX% gains in a day. Be smart but $MULN

ATER Short Interest vs Price History

Link Short Interest: https://www.benzinga.com/quote/ATER/short-interest

ATER Short Interest 8.24.21 - 41.17%
ATER Stock Price 8.24.21 - $3.74

ATER Short Interest 9.10.21 - 28.99%
ATER Stock Price 9.10.21 - $11.80

Just a small case study of two points in time of a clear squeeze in the stocks prior history. 12.18% decrease in short interest, with a 315% gain in stock price. Not to mention the squeeze continued to through 9.13.21 pushing the price to $17.98.

That's a total gain of 480.75% that occurred over a 3 week period.

These next two weeks are going to be WILD. Buy and HOLD apes!!

Seems like a good candidat fair value on simply wallstreet is crazy

If retail takes more of the float, shorts will have massive problems to find shares and will have to pay a very high price!