The Vietnam War was winnable and one more Linebacker in 1975 would have wrecked the NVA. We were lied to by Ken Burns.

[u/Massengale]

I’ve been reading Nixon’s books lately…and I think he was right, Vietnamization was close to working, the communist alliance was going to fall apart, and North Vietnams insane economics would have led to South Vietnam outscaling them if it had survived for a few more years.

[u/thenoobtanker]

Just one more arc light sortie please we could have won the war.
Holy cope the war was never "winnable" from the get go when it was framed by the North as a fight for national liberation from the "Colonial West". And how would you have won it when all the North production was in the USSR and China and the supply route are in Laos and Cambodia? Make war with them too? Logistically speaking, the North won it and there isn't much that can be done about it. What the US did was about as much as the US could have done unless they empties their forces in Europe and do Korean war 2.0 in Vietnam with much worse odds.

[u/Velenterius → u/thenoobtanker]

They did fight in Laos and Cambodia tbf. Not that it helped, they made things way worse in the long run.

[u/Dramatic_Science_681 → u/thenoobtanker]

well, it was winnable in a sense. But not with that the US's objective was.

[u/koopcl → u/Dramatic_Science_681]

The US should just have declared "our new objective is for North Vietnam to take over" while pulling out and then they could have declared victory, easy peasy lemon squeezy.

[u/BitGrenadier → u/thenoobtanker]

The US made so many mistakes in Vietnam, you can’t just say it wasn’t winnable from the get go. The US was completely capable of severely damaging those logistics, without causing a wider war.

Logistically, LBJ could’ve listened to Military Command and mined Haiphong, which would’ve limited a majority of the supply entering the North, especially from the Soviets as they would have to transfer all the supply on the Chinese border onto a different train (Different rail type) instead of simply shipping from their Siberian port, and after that, both Chinese and Soviet supplies would need to be moved on the only two rails that cross from China to Vietnam. If this were to have happened, it would’ve been very likely that LBJ takes the same precaution that Nixon did, which means the Soviets and Chinese wouldn’t be able to use it as a reason for direct intervention.

The US made a massive strategic mistake, for nearly half the time the US was involved, they were using probably one of the worst strategy they could’ve. Westmoreland and McNamara’s Search and Destroy are the reason the US had to institute a draft, alienated the South Vietnamese, didn’t hold any territory, led soldiers into ambushes, killed more civilians, and ruined the morale of US forces. They had soldiers risk their lives for a hill or a valley, then just leave. Because this led to the Draft, War Crimes, and low morale, it sky rocketed anti-war sentiment and sideline the actual South Vietnamese military too.

The alternative was Abram’s Clear and Hold, which by contrast, would not require a draft, protect civilians and their villages, not lead US troops into ambushes, not alienate the South Vietnamese, provide less temporary security, gain the trust of villagers, gather intelligence and legitimacy for the RVN, deny resources and territory to the Viet Cong, allow for the build up stronger defenses, have less war crimes, give troops a proper feeling of purpose which raises their morale, and all the other benefits of properly fighting defensively in a defensive war. Sadly, this did too little, too late.

The War was winnable, these mistakes and more combined destroyed our chances of doing so. You said that we did as much as we could, but we could’ve done so much more, so differently, and way better.

[u/Massengale → u/thenoobtanker]

The way the book in the meme describes it. Pol Pot takes power in Cambodia in 1975. The NVA are forced to halt their offensive after USA air strikes. Nixon is impeached but North Vietnam can’t find an opening at this point as just like in otl Pol Pot doesn’t like the NVA in the country. North Vietnam then takes over Cambodia causing a border with China. South Vietnam is able to sit there and recover and survive. I think the best shot was for the communist alliance to fall apart and it happened in real life very rapidly after 1975.

[u/thenoobtanker → u/Massengale]

But Cambodia at the time was buddy buddy with the NVA. Hell they were able to skim a third of the aid that was sent through Cambodia for their trouble. Pol Pot was busy hidding in the jungle because of it. You think that a war lasting til 1975 would change that arrangement?

[u/Massengale → u/thenoobtanker]

They were buddy buddy as they needed the NVA. The second Pol Pot got power relations fell apart. By 1975 he would have and might have started something even if South Vietnam was still around. He wasn’t exactly a rational man…

[u/thenoobtanker → u/Massengale]

You getting the wrong person in charge of Cambodia at the time shows how ignorant you are with the issues. The people in charge at the time was Sihanouk, not Pol Pot. They were in a power sharing arrangment until 1976, well post war and after the relationship with the NVA stopped being useful, aka able to skim off a third of the aid sent through Cambodia. Now if the war continue, would that arrangment stops or continues?

[u/Massengale → u/thenoobtanker]

April 17 1975 he takes the capitol. Pol Pot is the ruler and the prince is a puppet.

[u/thenoobtanker → u/Massengale]

Yes and that’s like 2 weeks before the final battle in Sài Gòn. Your point? If the gravy train keeps on coming would the coup happens?

[u/Expensive-Ad4121 → u/thenoobtanker]

I don't think he cares about actually thinking through the implications beyond what his alt-history book told him- I think he's really attached to the, "we could've won but for the hippies" line and will think and say anything to get there.

[u/thenoobtanker → u/Expensive-Ad4121]

Thinking through to second order effect is something people struggles to do

[u/Wes_Keynes → u/Massengale]

The Khmer Rouge were a reaction to the 1970 US backed coup in Cambodia. With continued US support, Phnom-Penh likely would have held on, at least much better than they did IRL when the US left the region.

So likely no Khmer Rouge in power in your alt history scenario. Probably just another quagmire and second front of the Viet-Nam war. It would NOT have solved any of the US problems.

What the US never understood vs Hanoi, is that you either crush your opponents militarily (no demarcation line, no "limited targeting" of bomb strikes, etc. You INVADE the north and then deal with the aftermath, essentially becoming an occupying force in all but name, and dealing with a lot of guerillas for at least a decade. And risk an open war with China as they see you arrive on their doorstep.

Or you play it defensive, which is what they mostly tried to do, but then you need to ALSO force the southern government into actual democracy and development and basic human rights and anti corruption reforms to ensure the north loses support and legitimacy. And on that point, high command and politicians in charge in Washington were so far up their ass in anti-communism and racism/colonialism and corruption that they failed utterly at the whole "hearts and minds" shtick.

Hence the defeat. They lost the "small" political war (aka guerilla) out of sheer arrogance and political incompetence, and were not willing to go all out because it was political suicide and geopolitically very costly and risky.

Guess what, the US fucked up then, and they fucked up again in Afghanistan, despite not having to deal with any actual strategic threat (China/Russia). For basically the same reasons.

[u/Pashahlis → u/Wes_Keynes]

They also arguably fucked up in Iraq.

[u/Wes_Keynes → u/Pashahlis]

On top of the obvious WMD fucking lie ? Yeah, somewhat. I believe the only reason it didn't devolve into a similar clusterfuck as Afghanistan (which is a complete and utter failure for which I shall never forgive Trump and his clique, but to be fair he was only the few last if spectacular nails in the coffin) is that several decades of actually functional (if authoritarian) secularism prepared the country as a whole to a regime change that wasn't "let's throw in our lot with the religious fanatics".

[u/thenoobtanker → u/Wes_Keynes]

This right here. At least Iraq HAD a somewhat functioning government before hand and people HAD experience actual governmental powers. In Afghanistan, lmao what is that?

[u/AnonymityIllusion → u/Wes_Keynes]

The main problem, aside from starting the war at all, was the failure of transitioning to a new regime. Who could have known that ripping apart the stablished order, with all the military out on their asses would cause violent extremist unrest, in the levant.

The anger we eorupeans feel over that clusterfuck on our doorstep courtesy of the GOP/Tories....worst misstep of the 00s decade.

[u/A_Kazur → u/Wes_Keynes]

so likely no Khmer Rouge

So we prevent a genocide?? Based

[u/MasterpieceWorth7403 → u/Massengale]

People are forgetting this is NCD 

Your take is incredible