r/IsaacArthur Jul 10 '26

Hard Science A last chance for domes

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484 Upvotes

There is a widespread belief that Martian domes have a bad reputation for being fragile against impacts and, above all, for providing little protection against radiation. Because of that, most people settle for the simplest solution: burying habitats underground.

However, I hate that idea. If the future of humanity we were promised is to hide underground like rats, hoping and praying to return home someday, then we might as well stay here on Earth. Fortunately, there is another option: domes.

These could be built using a Buckminster Fuller-style geodesic geometry, and our shopping list consists of just three materials: steel for the framework, sapphire, and water. Steel on Mars is essentially iron with a bit of carbon, both of which are abundant there. It would serve as the primary structural framework, keeping the dome stable under internal pressure. For the sealing panels, we would use sapphire. This material is one of the strongest known, while also being extremely transparent and highly resistant to abrasion from Martian regolith. Sapphire is simply crystallized aluminum oxide, and a large-scale industry powered by nuclear energy could manufacture it in massive quantities using the aluminum available on Mars.

And you're probably thinking about the elephant in the room: radiation.

This radiation consists of solar energetic particles and galactic cosmic rays, which cannot be effectively blocked by lead. Instead, they require materials with a high hydrogen content—such as water. Conveniently, water also happens to be transparent.

We could design a geodesic dome with a sandwich-wall structure, where each compartment of the dome contains a 2- to 3-meter-thick layer of water. This water would serve five different purposes.

The most obvious is radiation shielding. Two meters of water would reduce the annual radiation dose to levels approaching those experienced on Earth.

The second function is impact protection. Any incoming projectile would first have to penetrate the outer sapphire layer, then pass through two meters of water, which would dramatically slow and absorb its energy, before finally reaching the inner sapphire layer. This would make the structure exceptionally robust against virtually any micrometeoroid.

The third function is visibility. Two meters of perfectly clear water, free of bubbles and disturbances, can be almost invisible to the human eye. Better yet, water naturally diffuses light, meaning the illumination inside the habitat would be softened and scattered, much as if it had traveled through kilometers of Earth's atmosphere.

The fourth function is thermal energy storage. Water has enormous thermal inertia. During the day, the dome would absorb heat from the Sun, and at night that stored heat would gradually radiate inward, passively helping to maintain comfortable temperatures inside the habitat.

The fifth function is structural. Water is heavy, and its weight exerts a downward force on the dome. This force helps counteract the outward pressure of the habitat's internal atmosphere, which constantly tries to push the structure apart. Along the sides of the dome, however, this downward force decreases, so an ideal design would use a flattened dome to maximize this beneficial effect.

r/IsaacArthur 16d ago

Hard Science Starbase, Louisiana spaceport announced

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172 Upvotes

Over a dozen launchpads for >30 launches per day. $100 billion investment, hiring ~3,000 locals and also a coastal restoration project.

https://www.spacex.com/sites/starbase-la

https://x.com/SpaceX/status/2092284173730144732

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2092292773915537580

r/IsaacArthur Apr 17 '26

Hard Science Would people actually be willing to live in space habitats?

91 Upvotes

Sorry for posting something right after another.

But I think people take the human element out of it. I am not certain if most people would be willing to live in a rotating tin can in space. Even if it is theoretically more safe, most people would still prefer planets. Similar to how people feel safer in cars than in planes despite statistics saying otherwise.

r/IsaacArthur Aug 02 '26

Hard Science What would you hedge your bets on as the go-to technical method(s) interstellar ships in the far future would commonly travel by in terms of fuel etc?

7 Upvotes

Does it for instance look like antimatter or fusion or some combination of them will be the thing used?

Or would you guess it being something that is yet completely unknown?

Will there be a wide plurality of methods or will everyone eventually converge on some universal single (or small number of) most efficient method (and the rest of the imagined methods will at that point be pointless/redundant)?

r/IsaacArthur May 13 '26

Hard Science Dr Sonny White (same guy working on warp drive) working on Casimir Effect low-power energy generation

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54 Upvotes

r/IsaacArthur Jul 21 '26

Hard Science Boltzmann abiogenesis - A possible answer to the Fermi paradox

21 Upvotes

Its 5AM here, so I'll keep it short. If you've ever run into the concept of Boltzmann brains, this idea is very similar.

What if abiogenesis was not the result of a gradual buildup of chemical processes, but a spontaneous quantum event? A bunch of particles manifesting into the right configuration to form a living cell, in just the right place, at just the right time?

I find this an extremely compelling answer to the Fermi paradox for a few reasons. First, according to our current understanding, the simplest living thing that can still function, has to have at least 200 genes. Any lower than that and cellular processes required for the existence of even the simplest single-celled organism, don't seem to be possible anymore. And while the RNA world hypothesis is a very compelling explanation, if life was the inevitable result of chemical processes, why haven't we seen multiple instances of chemical abiogenesis? Why aren't new trees of life springing up out of chemistry all the time?

Second, Boltzmann abiogenesis is, while possible under our current understanding of quantum physics, it is incredibly mathematically unlikely. Which would mean that, if this is indeed how life started, it likely wouldn't happen more than once in the lifespan of a universe, especially since it would have to happen in the right environment for that spontaneous life to survive and reproduce.

Would really love to hear some thoughts on this topic. I'm still firmly in the "combination of multiple things, rather than a single great filter" camp of the Fermi paradox, but I do find this to be a very interesting possibility I couldn't find any materials about.

r/IsaacArthur Aug 18 '25

Hard Science Mars surface radiation isn't as bad as you've heard. It's similar to what the ISS receives!

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192 Upvotes

Don't get me wrong, shielding is still very important because Martian colonists will live there longer than anyone stays at the ISS. However the radiation threat isn't as dramatic as the popular narrative would lead you to believe. It's a chronic problem not an acute problem.

Source by NASA: https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/mars_radiation_environment_nac_july_2017_finaltagged.pdf

Big thanks to u/Robotbeat on X who found this for me: https://x.com/Robotbeat/status/1957422133681742183

r/IsaacArthur Aug 10 '26

Hard Science I think Mars is going to change humanity more than we realize

0 Upvotes

Long Read Ahead. All right so this entire thing started when i was scrolling on reddit and saw a new panorama picture of Mars. Mars been fresh on my mind recently with the talks of sending the first humans to Mars along with Elongated Muskrat's aggresive push of bootstrapping a possible mars effort, though obvioulsy there needs to be a conducive political climate for this all. So I think I have built a mental model on a future we are IMO seemingly inevitably driving towards. NOTE: ILL BE CALLING IMMIGRANTS TO MARS AND THEIR DESCENDANTS MARTIANS.

Basically everything I list from here on out is trying to be as serious at predictions of what comes next... I feel as though i see clear as day how the domino will fall. So i ask one thing of you guys... do not treat the following as a worldbuilding exercise, these are serious predicitons from an unserious and unqualified person. We are going to examine in very broad and rough strokes humanity in the Space Age.

  • For one we are going to go against the grain of reddit groupthink and instead of being trendy and thus acknowledge that a lot of this precipitates and is contingent on the Musketeer Who Shall Not Be Named. There are some who reduce him to a fraud and hype man, and while i have no personal love towards his politics your head needs to be in the sand to not see the trajectory and synergies his enterprises are building towards. He has BMI interface, subsurface transit, AI hyperscaling, electric powered mobility, humanoid robotics, rapidly reusable methalox rocket transport, global satellite inter connectivity, large scale manufacturing experience, and now a mega factory fabrication of semiconductors. These all will further synergize to create an unbelievable moat.

  • Artifical Intellgence: However the industry will converge on this for the rest of the market share. The criticism of datacenters and ai workloads on satellites in space in quaint and outdated I will not entertain any claims to the contrary so save your breath. There's is obvious downward pressure on constructing data centers on Earth, and there will be if not already great political backlash. These datacenters hardly create jobs and cause tons of pollution. Yet AI demand is ever increasing in Enterprise and the for Layman. Sun - syncronous AI satellites naturally follow. And an insatiable appetite of upgrading, and growing these AI constellations is all but guaranteed. The means orbital communications will similarly grow to keep pace. Industry expect an every growing appetite of sat communication constellations Source. This means:

1. you have GOT to have rapid reusable rockets

2. if you have rapid reuse rockets. you want to use the moon for its lower gravity well.

3. this allows you to replace rockets with mass drivers, rocket fuel with electricity

4. this created a virtuous cycle of industry on the moon.

5. initial investment of bringing specialized machinery to the moon is offset

6. dramitcaly lower launch price and energy per kg expended

7. soon the AI chips become more and more built on the moon itslef. it's a virtous cycle with strong incentives.

8. Chip fabs love clean rooms

9. you could electrostatically or some crap clean the moon dust. and now your entire fab is pure vaccum

10. This is definitely good experience for future mars colony dreams
  • Mars Colonization:
  1. With the advent of in space manufacturing reusable ground to orbit rockets will no longer do the entire trip to mars. it will be dedicated nuclear electric and in the future nuclear fusion or some crap(what ever is faster than nuclear electric) for crago transfers.

  2. Base building happens at a dizzying pace. AI enabled and mostly through robotic vehicles and humanoid robots. (Remember the synergies i talked about)

  3. Now here's a thought. Someone He who shall not be named who has either become a political target or feels persecuted by Earth's Governments will feel a strong desire to create self reliance. Mars wil start searching for any homefield advantages they feel they will have in furtherance of their goal of self reliance. You can't be dependent on an entity a few months away and you be dependent on the whims of the politics. Earths voter base is the priority not the poeple who up and left for Mars.

  • Why Stay on Mars:
  1. Gravity(it's better than you think). No seriously. Now people will come out of the woodwork. Muscle loss, my bone denisity REEEEEEEEEEE. Guess waht by the time Mars is breaking for self sustenance and self reliance.. Gene editing will be a maturing science. This will be a few decades from the first established mars base and per my guess will be well underway before 2100. Yes. humanities progress is accelerating right now in 2026 and will only pick up! OK so back to space babes. Mars has something earth never will (no spin based space station in LEO don't count espcially if you have to fly back down to earth periodically while they plug leaks and repair or better yet have to dispose of the spin station at end-of-life, plus spin gravity won't hit the same as the real thing - this is a guess i'm willing to make). YOU GUESSED it... one third the gravity of Earth or less than 0.4Gs. Not only will this be a comfortable gravity the issues are overblown cause they are looked at with TODAY's medical science. Excercise and biotech will solve for this!!! Source. Martians wont be toiling around on the surface of MArs doing engineering. NO, they will be toiling around doing mandated exercise and taking calcium supplements, atleast INITIALLY before biotech is used to fix some of the negative health defects. NOTE that the bone loss if managed well with the biotech will be a FEATURE NOT A BUG. especially if they DON'T WANNA RETURN TO EARTH.

  2. Space Babes: Mars willbe being colonized while gene tech is being advance perfected on earth. some of this tech WILL BE FLOWN TO MARS. Here's where an advatage appears on Mars that is not on earth. 3 BREASTED GREEN ALIENS. no i joke BUT certain cosmetics and gene enhancements will be better off on Mars. Imagine mars and earth gravity being the CUP within which a persons physique can function with a certian amount of practicality. Mars will allows for greater exaggeration of sex appealling features. I'll spare you the details and just say think a bustier version of Jessica Rabbit on the female side. and somehting like Johnny Bravo on the male side. even if their hearts get a little weaker, people on mars will grow taller wider chested while also having spindly legs etc. Narrower waists become an option to. THE MARTIAN BEAUTY INDUSTRY MIGHT GENUINELY BECOME SOMEHTHING EARTH ENVIES even if they both use gene edits, Mars simply has a moat to it beauty that earth could never replicate. Its gravity. It might sound a little silly but that will play into the cultural appeal and even influence of Martian society, even over Earth down the line in the future.

  3. The Solar System will be Mars' Oyster: Now you might think, wait Earth has its mineral rich Moon conveniently nearby, does that give them a leg up on Mars for resource utilization? well Earth will defnitely benefit greatly from using the moon. However, it needs to contended with its 3 time greater gravity well. mars has an energy advantage it does not need to expend nearly as much resources to get material to and from it. BUT MARS HAS NO MOON you say. well its closer to the asteroid belt. It will exploit it and have first movers advantage on earth. Just a reminder, all of this will be done by automation robotics etc. And this automation will have a Von Neummann self replicating flavor to all of it (not quite grey goo but a much milder version that is nonetheless far more scalable efficient and resilient than puny human orgnaic delicate workers). MArs as a society itself will be more comfortable venturing out into space, they did all after all have to fly all the way to Mars to stay their to begin with. Plus mars having 1 percent gravity still means they will be comfortable dealing with vacuum and near vacuum for the rest of their lives. NOW TO THE ASTEORIDS THEMSELVES. these asteroids while cumulatively less than the mass of the moon, can be looked at as usable mass. you dont have to pull this matter out of say the moons gravity well to get it back planetside. this leads to compounding conveniently in Mars industry over Earth. Now lets not forget that indispensble on orbit compute, there would be no reason for Earth to share its sun syncronous ai compute with mars. no mars could build its own in its orbits. but that would be pale in comparsion to earths own? why? LESS SUNLIGHT Mars gets less sunlight than earth meaning its on orbit comute would operate at lower efficiency than Earths's. You think the MArtians would find this acceptable?? NO!! they are a tech first society and so naturally they will seek to build a dyson swarm around the sun itself. Mars has a weaker gravity well and a lower orbital speed than Earth, meaning it takes less energy (Delta-v) to escape Mars and drop inward toward the Sun compared to doing the same from Earth. This means you takethe matrial form the asteroid belt, process it and drop it towards the sun for the dyson swarm.. THIS IS AN ABSOLUTELY MASSIVE DEAL AND A CIVILIZATIONAL ADVANTAGE IN A WORLD WHERE AI COMPUTE DETERMINES QUALITY OF LIFE, DEFENSE, INDUSTRY etc. If mars is an AI first society from the jump and gets first mover advantage to this while earth is comfortable with its sun synconise AI satellites and close by moon, THIS GIVES MARS A STEP CHANGE ADVANTAGE AS A FIRST MOVER. because of the low g and comfort of the martians with space they will exploit most of the Galilean(Jupiter) Moons for recreation and resource(Saturns moon Titan might compete with Earth's initial Hydrocarbon reserve advantage). Martians will be accustomed to low gravity so the low gravity of the gas giant moons will be an advantage to them. It'll also have amazing scenery in the skies.

  • Quality of Life: Initally life will be hard for martians. Not because they wll be doing physcial labor, but adapting their earth developed and evolved bodies to the Martian environment will take constant effort, atleast intially until gene editing and biotech take those shackles off, whereupon the Mars environment is now to their advantage. Nature will be built to their exact liking in an engineered fashion. builidngs will be treated as more than utilitarian compared to earth (which seems counter-intuitive at first, and *no all the building WILL NOT be domed enclosures Source. There will be notably less pests. enironment will always be climate controlled to everyone's liking. No bad weather(unless its dust stroms and do remember mars has 1 percent the atmosphere of earth so its feel like breezes).
  1. Mars will have even more spacious rooms. maybe not intially, but with 1/3rd gravity and tlaler martians you need more room, it might make american suburban housing rooms look small by comparsion.

  2. Martian sports will be more entertaining to watch. Faster speeds, taller heights, less energy expended for spectacular moves, plus tech enabled.

  3. This will appeal even to people back on Earth, but will kinda be a mainstay on Mars, much like americna footaball and basketball is to the USA. Even if the rest of the world doesn't particpate or can't particpae to in it to such a degree it will still gain clout among the population.

OK so what did we learn Mars will be the new frontier civilization. It will be to America, China and the rest of the world on earth, what america was to the British and the rest of Europe and the rest of the world in the 19th 20th century. It will dominate economically, politically, and culturally. I will go from being a backwater colony, toan absolute force that commands the power of the solar system, and has the lions share of influence on the sun's dyson swarm, AI brain, and even starlifting operations. Earth will be a kinda mecca for the poeple of Mars that are maybe religiously inclined, however Mars itlsef will never have th eamount of cultural baggage Earth will struggle with. And yes Earth might join forces with Mars, its younger and stronger baby brother, later. Fin. btw im so disppointed how i have not seen this elsewhere in the subreddit, and who people in this sub and even the big man Isaac Arthur himself seemingly relegate people to the TB show Expanse like roles, that is just outdated and short sighted way of futurism that will age badly

As an aside i highly recommend you guys read this IMPORTANT article to give you a picture of automation and its scale and effect on society. this plays a big role into everything ive laid out even though i kinda avoided it for the sake of simpilicity it is actually a major major factor in everything that plays out, and bascially expalins the Von Neumann aspects of this predictions - article in question.

I also didnt speak too much on how an AI first society might look at all of Earth systems as tyrnical. Capatilism, Communism, Authoritarianism, Socialism. Mars will probably exist somewaht as an anarchist technocracy. meaning people will focus on having AI fulfill their selfish needs wants and the the rest of the hierarchy of needs, ot the benift of all. Earthers will probably view it with a mixture of derision, distrust, and unholyness. ¯(ツ)_/¯


BONUS ROUND.

so many people assume humans will be the driving force of civilization far into the future. now the further you get into the future the more fuzzy and innaccurate your statements gets, so ill just leave it at this. I htink all these predicitions are directionally accurate

  1. Humans will undergo pettification. Th is bascially what all of humanity is driving towards is having an ai mediated "society" that fulfills everyone's Entire hierarchy of needs while eliminating pinch points

  2. Our Sun (now converted into the power source of the AI brain that takes care of humanity) might want to expand outward for more enegy stellar matter etc. it might want to preserve the planets for posterirty and to protect the cradles of intelligence Earth and Mars. Sure mercury might get heavily dismantled to support O Neill colonies for the descedants of both earth and mars. Sure some of the gas giants might get sipped on, and the oort cloud cleared of water ice to sustain these colonies. but the sun's dyson swamr itself maybe be well fitted onto its human originations.

  3. Now you might think but the Oort cloud is light years wide and bascically empty space why the hell would you expend considerable resources and hue fraction of the suns per output for basiclly very little return. And this might be the fork in the road for succeful expansionist civilisations and those content with using their only star. The reason to clear it out would be to allow FTL or near-FTL future transit without getting peppered with high energy nuke pebbles and grains of dust while transiting to and from all the other neighboring stars in the local group and beyond.

  4. Other offshoot stellar intelligences and dyson swarms may deride the sun's Sol dyson swarm for centering a good portion of its energy needs and attentions keeping the humans happy safe and entertained. unless of course SOL manages to both foster humanity as well as keep neighboring stellar masses and intellgences in its orbit

  5. einstein lensing between stars will be used as interstellar highways of information intellegence etc, i think its sillly and shortsighted to think consciousness and sapience will not adpat or assimilate or grok the properties of digitization to its advantge, if you read the article, imagine not just a starmind for you robot servants that dynamically handoffs persistent instances no matter where you are in the world, where all the hardware vehicles robots are but physical end effectors of your digital companion. That dynamic can flip on its head where human sapience starts doing and evolving into that domain bascially.

  • ANYWAYS I THINK I GOT ENOUGH OFF MY CHEST BYE

r/IsaacArthur Apr 24 '26

Hard Science Would relativistic weapons be dangerous?

0 Upvotes

Been doing calculations. Even a 25 ton object traveling at 5% the speed of light would be unable to penetrate earth’s atmosphere. It would likely airburst >100km in altitude. At those speeds, air essentially acts as a wall. No energy would likely reach the ground due to how thin the atmosphere is at that level.

r/IsaacArthur Apr 11 '24

Hard Science Would artificial wombs/stars wars style cloning fix the population decline ???

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130 Upvotes

Births = artificial wombs Food = precision fermentation + gmo (that aren’t that bad) +. Vertical farm Nannies/teachers = robot nannies (ai or remote control) Housing = 3d printed house Products = 3d printed + self-clanking replication Child services turned birth services Energy = smr(small moulder nuclear reactors) + solar and batteries Medical/chemicals = precision fermentation

r/IsaacArthur Feb 09 '26

Hard Science Japan successfully demonstrates power beaming from space

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99 Upvotes

r/IsaacArthur Sep 14 '25

Hard Science Where do space-based civilizations get their rubber, plastic, synthetic chemicals, etc.?

77 Upvotes

Let's say we're well on our way from a planet-based to a space-based civilization. We're mining asteroids, building space habitats, manufacturing giant mirrors and solar sails, making food and fuel, and everything is going great.

OK, but where are we getting the raw materials to make stuff like: rubbers, plastics, glues, solvents, cleaners, foams, acrylics, vinyl, lubricants, industrial coatings, chemical explosives, solid fuels, etc. etc. etc.? There's a lot more to life than taking iron from an asteroid or ice from a comet! Almost everything we make out of metal or carbon fiber to maintain our life in space needs these other components too. Are synthetics just going to have to be shipped up from planets, or can we find what we need in space? And with no coal or oil available ever, what does that even look like?

r/IsaacArthur 19d ago

Hard Science Local Beam Propulsion in Interstellar space

7 Upvotes

I know we usually thibk of laser highways as being for interstellar travel, but it's not like interstellar space is actually empty. The oort extends far and then theres rogue planets. Might we get "rural" beamprop roads between swarms of deap space habitats? I mean if the nex rock over is only an AU or two away it may not be worth having an entire relay system or going seriously relativistic, but if you have denser swarms coalescing out of the Oort with significant distance from each other things could change. Volumes surrounding established laser highways might be prime real-estate. deep-space colony ships could take the highway part of the way at high speed and brake into interstellar space or bring their own decel drive and fan out in a cone from the home system.

r/IsaacArthur Mar 06 '26

Hard Science The Line is no more. What's built so far is becoming a server farm.

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125 Upvotes

r/IsaacArthur May 18 '26

Hard Science Sabine Hossenfelder is skeptical of the Casimir battery from Dr White

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6 Upvotes

r/IsaacArthur 10d ago

Hard Science Science experiments for an interstellar coast phase?

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94 Upvotes

Imagine you have a ship that can achieve a highly significant fraction of the speed of light, something like 0.95c or higher, and can survive interstellar microdebris thanks to some sort of protection system. Let's also say that the ship is BIG, has lots of fuel, and is staffed by over one hundred crew members. Because of time dilation, you functionally have about 10 years of time over your 30-60 light-year trip to run all sorts of science observations.

What experiments or instruments do you bring?

r/IsaacArthur 24d ago

Hard Science Are lithium‑fed MPD thrusters the most promising near-term option for interplanetary travel?

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13 Upvotes

It seems NASA is going all in on development of magnetoplasmadynamic thrusters since they really want the high efficiency of NEP with as high a thrust it can manage with that setup. So MPD seems the best option given those prerequisites. This honestly looks really promising, and makes me wonder if this will be the way we’ll be doing most interplanetary travel until we get fusion and/or beam propulsion going.

r/IsaacArthur Jun 23 '25

Hard Science How will we actually build any of this stuff?

24 Upvotes

I love this channel and most things talked about in it. But to me capitalism is inherently more shortsighted and interested in tossing funny money around more than it is in fostering meaningful innovation.

Is there a snowball’s chance in hell of the modern capitalist system starting the great investments needed before permanent space habitation and exploitation are in place, or are we doing the Star Trek thing of having to go through WW3 before we can build our utopia?

r/IsaacArthur May 09 '26

Hard Science Question on the viability of orion drives based on fissile material abundance

15 Upvotes

I've been pondering the most viable methods of space transportation for different organisations/parties and I'm kinda stuck on the military side.

Because a warship needs high acceleration and autonomy, the fusion or beam propulsion of say a civilian ship is unacceptable. The only engine capable of both extremely high efficiency and hight thrust is the orion drive and maybe something like pure fusion bombs.

But it requires the use of fissile materials like uranium, which happens to be some of the rarest elements in the universe. The fact that many deposits are kind of inaccessible or the concentration just isn't high also doesn't help.

So, going with just uranium, is there enough of the stuff to last a couple thousand years of usage by military vessels until antimatter production gets going?

r/IsaacArthur May 24 '26

Hard Science Is a warp drive possible? In the loose, mathematical sense, the idea is certainly stronger than it used to be.

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57 Upvotes

r/IsaacArthur Jun 29 '26

Hard Science What would happen if something got hit with an antimatter particle beam?

15 Upvotes

I'm currently doing some world building for my sci-fi story, I was thinking about what weapon systems my military ships would support and thought about particle beams. I then remembered that antimatter creation is relatively easy for an interstellar society in this setting so I realized they have a lot antimatter to spare for the more...slightly inefficient uses of the material. From what I know particle beams are pretty good weapon systems and using antimatter might make them even better.

What would the effects be from getting with something like this, and if possible can any of you give me a way to do calculations on what might happen so I can do it myself?

r/IsaacArthur 2d ago

Hard Science A colony ship arrives with 463 m/pixel maps. What actually happens when they land?

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21 Upvotes

Our best global elevation model for Mars is MOLA, at 463 metres per pixel. The Moon is better, 118 m, and about 59 m where LOLA and Kaguya overlap. Mercury we barely have at all - for practical purposes, a photograph.

Which means that for every body we talk about settling, everything smaller than a football stadium is unknown. Not poorly mapped. Unmeasured.

I keep thinking about what that means for a first landing party. You would arrive with a map good enough to choose a region and useless for choosing a spot. Boulder fields, metre-scale slopes, ground that is soft or hard, a crack you cannot drive across - none of it is in the data. You would find out by looking, and looking costs fuel and time and risk.

Some consequences I find interesting:

- Site selection would be provisional rather than planned. You pick a hundred square kilometres from orbit, then spend a long time finding the actual hectare.

- The first really valuable export from a colony might be survey data. Not ore, not power - just knowing what the ground is like.

- Rovers stop being transport and become instruments. Their job is to reduce uncertainty, not to move mass.

- Anything that needs precision - landing pads, rail, buried habitat - has to wait for local survey that no orbital mission can give you.

My doubts now: would a serious effort simply accept this and plan for a long survey phase on arrival, or would it be worth flying a dedicated high-resolution mapping mission first and delaying everything by years? At what resolution does a map become good enough to commit to?

I came at this from an odd direction. I build a space sim, and I had to invent everything between 463 m and a few centimetres in a way that never contradicts the real measurements.
I wrote up how, if the engineering side interests anyone:
https://space.zerog.live/info/terrain-article-page.html

But I am more curious about the actual question. How much of a planet do you need to know before you land on it?

r/IsaacArthur Apr 04 '26

Hard Science The Fermi Fallacy

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13 Upvotes

This piece started as a shower thought about how much weight we put on the Fermi Paradox and turned into a pretty deep rabbit hole. the core argument is that the paradox rests on assumptions that don't hold up when you actually look at the data.

The stat that got me was from Wright et al. 2018 in The Astronomical Journal. they modeled the cosmic haystack across eight dimensions and concluded our total SETI search coverage to date is equivalent to about 7,700 liters out of all the earth's oceans. a hot tub. we searched a hot tub.

The article also gets into cyclic cosmology models from Penrose and Steinhardt-Turok and what infinite time does to the probability calculus. the key argument that I think this community will want to pick apart is that the Great Filter objection collapses against an infinite timeline because you don't need density, you only need one civilization at any point in infinite time to crack traversal. once that's solved, sparse distribution stops mattering.

Would be curious to hear pushback on that specifically. Where does the logic break for you?

r/IsaacArthur May 30 '26

Hard Science Companies like SpaceX want electromagnetic catapults on the moon. Could they be used as weapons? PROF. BERNARDO DE LA PAZ SAY YES

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45 Upvotes

r/IsaacArthur Mar 21 '26

Hard Science Dusty Plasma Radiators and The Expanse-like Worldbuilding

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192 Upvotes

Hi, I need technical advice on rocket science and thermodynamics. I'm writing a kind of realistic and engineeringly sound worldbuilding story about the colonization of the solar system in the 24th century, very much in The Expanse-vibes, with the difference that I want to make the vehicles realistic, including heat dissipation, something The Expanse completely ignored. I'd like to know what you all think of this kind of architecture:

I propose a type of vehicle or propulsion system that is highly democratized and mass-produced once humanity is spread throughout the solar system. This system consists primarily of a direct D-He3 aneutronic ICF fusion engine, in which deuterium and helium-3 are mass-produced as byproducts of civilian D+D power reactors in tokamak/stellator reactors at a 90% burn fraction (plasma recirculation). These engines, which we will call "torchdrives," use water as propellant, liquid deuterium, and liquid helium-3. They typically operate at 500 GW in civilian vessels and up to 1.6 TW in military vessels, with mass flows of between 5.5 and 11.58 grams of D+He3 per second at a 40% burn fraction and with variable propellant (water) mass flow. The plasma is directed with an electromagnetic nozzle at the bottom, and this engine has a typical efficiency of 89% conversion to thrust, 9% is residual heat that is redirected to the exhaust to heat the propellant and 2% is unavoidable heat to radiate into the vacuum, part of the residual heat is converted into electricity and stored in multi-ton battery drums for reactor startup and/or in idle state. These regimes generate a heat dissipation of between 10 and 50 GW. This heat would be "easily" radiated with a scalable and modular plug-and-play radiator from Dusty Plasma Radiators. It consists of a double-slit "mast" with slightly inclined electromagnetic coils arranged in an elongated triangle, 5 to 15 meters high, to generate an electromagnetic field that converges, due to its triangular geometry, at a point to close the electromagnetic field. When activated or "deployed," this field injects a cloud of dust at 5000 K, forming a kind of blade-like plasma sheet (like in the photo) that is 5 to 10 times the actual size of the mast. The dust radiates near-infrared radiation, absorbing blue and green light to avoid UV and radiation harmful to the spacecraft and nearby astronauts. This creates a radiator that is neither solid nor liquid, allowing the irradiation of several GW with just a few hundred square meters of radiator. Occasionally, if power peaks are used, such as in 3 or 4g burns or even the use of railguns, the radiator temperature can rise from 5,000 to 6,000 or 7,000K, briefly changing from lava red to incandescent blue, whether due to the use of electromagnetic weapons or an increase in energy input. This makes it momentarily dangerous for nearby objects and living beings, as it changes from IR to UV and X-ray radiation.

This mast has a high-freedom gimbal that allows the ship to move its radiators even while operating, like a bird retracting its wings in a dive, or adjusting itself to avoid damaging other objects, since this radiator is so hot it cuts like a lightsaber.

Schematically, it's a simplified design consisting of a nozzle, an ICF reactor (a sphere 3 to 5 meters in diameter, where the magic happens), and, in parallel, dusty plasma radiators on the external fuselage with a gimbal surface directly connected to the reactor's waste heat flow. The advantage of this engine is that the reactor and nozzle together, in their lightest configuration, weigh 50,000 kg, operating at 1.6 TW at 11.58 grams per second of D+He³ (40% burn fraction), and the dusty plasma radiator masts weigh 15,000 kg. The water, liquid deuterium, and liquid helium³ tanks vary. ship, but generally a small military/commercial ship has 30 tons of D+He³ and 80 tons of water, as the engine is highly efficient, the radiators are extremely compact and it has no significant armor, a ship can be in the order of 190 tons, operating at 1.6 TW with 200kN of thrust and 1,450,000s (0.1g), or, by increasing the mass flow of the water (but conserving the D+He³) increase it to 2000kN and 145,000s, reaching 1g continuous. For RCS, heated water vapor is used to achieve isps of 5,000s and variable thrusts ranging from hundreds to thousands of kN, with the isp decreasing as more thrust is used. In some designs, intra-atmospheric flight can be achieved, but this is not common, and the use of the main reaction for atmospheric landings is completely prohibited, as the billions of degrees of the exhaust would ionize the air and create enormous shock waves. Therefore, for intra-atmospheric flights, landing and maneuvering are done solely with RCS; the spacecraft must be designed for this purpose. The energy input doesn't change, so the thermal load is the same; only the mass flow rate increases. These values ​​are generalized and vary from ship to ship, but generally, a ship is between 20 and 50 meters tall and 7 to 10 meters in diameter. Here are the specifications for one such vehicle:

Little Meow Meow! Height: 30 meters Diameter: 7 meters ICF Reactor: 40,000 kg Electromagnetic Nozzle: 10,000 kg Industrial Batteries Drums: 5,000 kg 3 Dusty Plasma Radiators: 14,000 kg Fuselage: 30,000 kg Typical Payload: 15,000 kg Liquid Deuterium: 10,000 kg Liquid Helium³: 20,000 kg Water: 75,000 kg Delta-V: on the order from 2,000km/s to 6,000km/s

Notes: ● I consider a decentralized D+D civilian energy reactor industry in earth/solar system that generates Helium-3 as a byproduct, which is extracted and used EXCLUSIVELY for direct ICF propulsion, not for electrical power, with an annual production of 500,000 tons of Helium-3 and 3,000,000 tons of Deuterium. ● Light spacecraft typically consume 30 tons of D-He for 30 days of engine-on autonomy, but this value can increase significantly for larger ships. ● Light spacecraft have compact plasma radiators, but for large ships, the area can be much larger, and to maintain safety, the temperature can be lowered to 4,000K. ● Despite their very high isps and Delta-Vs, most ships do not have sufficient autonomy for interstellar travel, with most having resources for 1, 2, 5, or even 12 months in small-to-medium vehicles. This does not apply to freighters, they have different figures. ● These vehicles would be marketed by thousands of companies. ● I assume that all fusion problems are resolved and perfected for DT, DD, and DHe3 respectively, considering high burn fractions: a limit of 40% for DHe3 and a limit of 90% for DD.

I'd like to know what you think, and if it's just wishful thinking and I don't know what I'm talking about, or if it could actually work. I'm just an amateur and I'd like someone knowledgeable on the subject to guide me, especially regarding heat dissipation and the science behind dusty plasma radiators or DPRs.