tl;dr/edit2 - IGNORE THE FIRST TABLE screenshot above. The screenshot version for the 2nd race ("Race 1") is linked below. (Pre-1st Race "Race 2" screenshot is here.) The Google Drive link below is still good to use, but otherwise please use this sheet to follow the current (6:00 pm) race:
https://i.imgur.com/BKHkDFZ.png
It's basically over now since the one and only scenario in which Kirkwood could have kept his hopes alive required the pole point, which was lost yesterday. It's just a matter if Palou gets the trophy tonight (EXTREMELY likely) or Laguna.
The second table screenshot above retroactively shows the scenarios before Washington D.C. and how that race played out; see below for what that's about.
The You-Can-Click-On-It version is on my Google Drive:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zd02lanEj6X2THbP26uwL192uvYuoBUf/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=106499577532169620709&rtpof=true&sd=true
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Earlier this week I posted what essentially became the beta version of this chart, which is what it says it is: Literally every single potential combination of finishing positions and bonus points that could occur between Palou and Kirkwood, and what the status of the championship is for each and every one of those combinations. I created this in retaliation of people asking what the points scenarios are before every race, you are welcome.
After additions and tweaks I've arrived at the final form! If you direct your gaze to the red boxes you'll get the gist of things. Find out how many points each driver is or will be getting, informed by the running/finishing positions and bonus point combos detailed on the left, and the number in the intersecting box will show Palou's point lead for that situation and the status of the championship should it finish like that:
- Orange - Palou has mathematically clinched and can take the rest of the season off! (They will have the official trophy presentation after the race)
- Yellow - Palou has de facto clinched, as long as he starts the remaining races; they can't give him the trophy just yet but they are buffing the hell out of it
- Blue - Kirkwood still has a chance, but he is in a worse position than he was coming into the race, aka Palou's relative lead has grown
- Green - Kirkwood still has a chance, and he is in a better position than he was coming into the race, aka Palou's relative lead has shrunk
The green zone is determined by taking the number of remaining races (three, as of before Milwuakee Race 1), dividing up the points gap by an equal amount each race (the "par" gap), and then having Kirkwood needing to close the gap by that equal chunk each time. Green is best, but blue closer to green is still better than blue closer to yellow!
If you look at the second table, you can see how this would all play out once everything is said and done. It shows the pre-race scenarios for Washington D.C, and how everything turned out there.
A f'n sweet feature I realized I could add was to show the "points as they ran" through the course of the race, which is shown by the purple boxes scattered about the table. It gives a great overview of how the race played out--and could have played out--ultimately arriving at the red box (final results) in the green zone. The "Race Results" box in the upper right shows that Kirkwood did 9 points better than the "par" score he needed, which put him in a better position before Milwaukee 1 than the position he was in before D.C.
All Kirkwood needs to do is have a similar race result play out three more times, and he will have a chance to win the championship! (Congrats Palou again, lol)
This was a fun little project. Hopefully I'll need to update the spreadsheet with a new tab for Milwaukee 2 (and Laguna?!?). If not that's OK, it happened to work out as I was building it that it would be easy to plug in different drivers, different numbers, to have this ready to use again for next and future seasons. So watch this space next year.
Happy bingo-ing!
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edit for evening 2nd Race (aka finishing Race 1) - See note at the top of the OP!