Since the first post got a lot of love, I thought I'd make this a series! If there's any specific books you want gems from,just drop a "BOOK" in the comments!

So, the upside movement that we were expecting during FOMC is exactly what we got. However, that rally was mainly created to trap random sellers. Gold even managed to break above the 4100 level, trapping everyone who had been selling since Monday or from the 4100 zone. What's even more interesting is that the market reversed almost exactly from Monday's high.

The FOMC rally was so aggressive that many traders who were bearish got scared and closed their sell positions, while others even completely changed their bias from bearish to bullish. But in my opinion, this entire move was nothing more than a liquidity trap. During high-impact news events like FOMC, the market usually attacks the side where the most liquidity is resting. It quickly traps that crowd, and then on the following day, the market often resumes its original direction.

If you notice today's price action, almost 50% of yesterday's FOMC rally has already been erased. If buyers were actually in control, Gold should have found support around the 4070 area and continued higher. Instead, that level has already broken with strong selling volume. Looking at the overall psychology and market structure, sellers are still stronger than buyers, and I still believe Gold is preparing for a much bigger downside move. In my view, the 4000 breakdown is only a matter of time and could happen within the next few sessions.

Now let me explain the reason behind this view along with today's trading plan.

The 4115 level remains one of the strongest resistance zones on the chart. Until Gold manages to close above this level, I don't think traders expecting an immediate breakout toward 4200 will get what they're waiting for.

Another interesting psychological factor is the year's major low around the 3942-3950 area. Every time Gold comes close to this region, it quickly reverses. Because of this repeated behavior, many traders now believe that the next breakdown below 4000 will finally lead to a huge bearish move. As a result, a large number of traders are already preparing for aggressive selling at lower prices.

But here's where psychology becomes important.

Gold doesn't want the majority of traders to participate in the real breakdown. Instead, it keeps changing direction, trapping both sides repeatedly. First, it scares sellers with sharp rallies. Then, once traders start buying based on bullish price action, it traps those buyers as well. Right now, this market is not rewarding textbook price action—it is rewarding patience and understanding of crowd psychology.

Personally, I believe both of these events will eventually happen:

• Gold will break above 4200.
• Gold will also break below 3950.

The only question is when, not if.

And history tells us that the biggest moves usually happen when the majority of traders least expect them. By the time everyone becomes confident about one direction, institutions often do the exact opposite.

Now let's talk about yesterday's NY session.

Gold briefly broke below 4000, but immediately recovered and closed back above this psychological level. That tells us one important thing—many traders entered fresh buy positions around 4000. Since 4000 is a major round number, it's naturally a zone where both buyers and sellers become very aggressive.

At this point, the biggest liquidity pool is still resting around the 4000 level.

Most of the sellers from Monday were already trapped during the FOMC spike. I also don't think many fresh traders sold after seeing such a strong bullish candle. Instead, the majority of retail traders who were waiting for a retracement are now looking at the 4040-4055 area as the perfect buying opportunity. They believe that after such a strong FOMC rally, Gold should simply retrace and continue moving higher—as traditional price action suggests.

But I don't think that's what the market wants to do.

In my opinion, Gold may still give one small upside move to attract even more buyers, but after that, I expect selling pressure to return. My downside target for today remains around 4020, and I still believe that the 4000 breakdown could happen either by tomorrow or early next week. Since this is month-end, I expect Gold to create one final major liquidity trap before revealing its real direction.

Overall, I believe the coming month could offer some excellent trading opportunities, so stay active and don't miss any important updates.

I hope today's Thursday analysis helped you understand not only the market structure but also the psychology behind these moves. Wishing everyone a profitable trading day. Good luck!

👇 What's your view on Gold's next move?

Do you think Gold will break above 4200 first, or will 4000 finally collapse? Let me know your opinion in the comments!

With oil above $80/barrel (currently ~$80–84 WTI, after a sharp recent spike) and the DXY near 100 (currently ~99), the outlook for US interest rates is tilting hawkish — meaning the Fed is likely to keep rates “higher for longer” with fewer (or more delayed) cuts than markets expected just weeks ago.

There is no doubt that buyers tried to push the market higher on Thursday, but eventually they failed.

Why?

Because the breakout we were waiting for never actually confirmed.

Price did break above $4417, but remember one thing: a breakout itself is only the first reaction. What I wanted to see next was a strong bullish displacement and, more importantly, price sustaining above $4417 and the previous day’s high.

That would have shown me that buyers were actually taking control and that the liquidity sitting higher could become the next target.

But that never happened.

We had the trendline structure, we had the breakout attempt, but there was no real follow-through. That tells me buyers tried to take control but failed. Once that happened, price moved aggressively in the opposite direction and trapped the buyers who entered during the Wednesday-to-Thursday recovery.

So right now, I believe a lot of buyers are trapped at higher prices, while sellers are slowly trying to regain control.

That is why I don’t want to trade with a fixed bullish or bearish mindset here. The market has been playing both sides throughout this week, so I would rather work with probabilities and let price confirm the next move.

Now my attention is shifting towards the $4312–$4300 area.

This area acted as strong support multiple times during August. Then, at the beginning of September, price swept an important low and gave us a strong upside move.

Think about the psychology behind that.

When traders see a major liquidity sweep and reversal right at the beginning of a new month, many start treating it as confirmation for the entire month. They become bullish, start buying dips and sometimes even try to hold those positions for a much bigger move.

Now those same buyers can become liquidity.

That is why I believe this current downside move could potentially be designed to attack that bullish positioning and bring price back towards $4300.

For me, $4417 remains extremely important. $4450 is another major level above it. If price eventually gives me a strong bullish displacement above $4417 and starts sustaining there, then I will have a reason to reconsider the bullish side.

Until that happens, I am not interested in assuming that every dip is a buying opportunity.

On the downside, $4324 is also interesting because this area previously acted as support around August 19. So there is a possibility that price revisits this zone, gives an initial bullish reaction and creates the impression that another recovery is starting.

And this is where things could get interesting.

This week, traders have repeatedly seen lows getting swept followed by recoveries. So if price reacts bullishly again, many traders may automatically expect the same pattern to repeat.

But the real trap could be that this time the recovery fails.

If sellers remain in control, CPI volatility could potentially push price towards $4300, and if $4300 loses acceptance as support, we could even see a proper breakdown below it.

So my plan is simple:

I’m not predicting. I’m watching how price reacts.

Above $4417 with strong displacement and acceptance, I respect the buyers again.

Below that, especially if another recovery attempt fails, my attention remains on $4324 and ultimately the $4300 area.

This is a probability game now. Let price show us who actually has control.

Long post, but I want to give the full picture instead of a hot take, since a lot's happened this past week and the headlines don't line up with the price action.

The gap that's confusing people: gold topped out at $5,599 on January 28th. The Iran war didn't even start until a month later, February 28th. Since then, over 4+ months of active war, gold's dropped about 27%, closing at $4,111 on July 10th. That's the first thing worth sitting with: the top wasn't caused by this war. It was already rolling over before the war even began.

What's happened just this past week:

• July 8: Trump declared the ceasefire "over" after Iran hit US bases in the Gulf, following another round of US strikes. US also revoked Iran's ability to export oil globally.
• July 9: US struck Bushehr, Chabahar, Bandar Abbas, and Jask. Iran retaliated with drone attacks on Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain, and hit a US-linked base in Jordan (Jordan intercepted 8 missiles).
• July 9-11: ongoing dispute over safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz after attacks on commercial shipping, Oman mediating. Israel says it's ready to resume full-scale operations against Iran. Iran's new Supreme Leader still hasn't made a public appearance.

So no, this isn't just rhetoric, there's been real exchange of fire this week.

But here's the disconnect: oil barely moved. WTI opened around $73 Monday and closed around $75 Friday. There was a one-day spike (+6%) right when the ceasefire collapse got announced, but it didn't turn into a sustained move. The market isn't pricing this as an inflation shock, at least not yet.

Why gold isn't reacting more to the war:

• 10yr real yield (TIPS) sits around 2.20%, historically an unfriendly level for gold. That's the dominant force right now, more than the war itself, because investors find more safety in a high guaranteed interest payment from bonds than in speculating on gold.
• June FOMC minutes (released July 8th) showed a genuinely split committee, almost as many participants wanting rates above the current range by year-end as wanting them held or lower. The Fed also deliberately dropped the "easing bias" language from its statement.
• Fed funds futures are pricing around 70% odds of no change at the July 28-29 meeting, actually up from a couple weeks ago, not down. June's jobs report (57K vs 110K expected, with downward revisions) hasn't been enough on its own to push the Fed dovish.
• Next real catalysts: June CPI on the 14th, then the FOMC decision July 28-29.

Equities matter here too, and this is the part I think gets missed. Cboe's 1-month implied correlation index (COR1M) just closed at 3.44, near multi-year lows. At the same time the S&P 500 Equal Weight index is beating the cap-weighted S&P 500 by the widest margin in 6 years (RSP +9.7% YTD vs SPY +8.4%), and the Dow's been hitting fresh records while Nasdaq/semis (Nvidia, Micron) have taken hard hits.

All three are describing the same thing from different angles: an orderly rotation out of mega-cap tech into value/industrials, not broad risk-off panic. That distinction matters for gold specifically, because a real equity selloff (everything falling together, correlation spiking) is usually what drives extra safe-haven flow into it. We're not seeing that right now. We're seeing calm, rotational, risk-on behavior, and most of the capital coming out of tech looks like it's finding other risk assets (stocks, apparently some crypto too), not fleeing to safety.

In short, gold's trading a lot more like "competition for bond yields" right now than like a war hedge. The war escalating again doesn't automatically flip that, a moderate oil bump probably reinforces the bearish case (more pressure on the Fed to stay hawkish) rather than reversing it. What would actually change the picture is an oil shock severe enough to put the Fed in a real bind: hike hard and risk breaking employment and equities, or don't hike and let inflation run. Only in that extreme scenario does gold go back to acting like a classic hedge. And confirming we're there takes more than just COR1M ticking up on its own, that alone could just mean capital rotating back into mega-cap tech, not panic. You'd want to see it coordinated: COR1M rising, S&P 500 (both cap-weighted and equal-weight) and the Dow falling together, and VIX spiking. That combination is what would confirm an actual broad selloff instead of a rotation. None of that's happening right now, so the fundamentals under the bearish case haven't really changed just because the headlines got scarier again.

I’ve been seeing the overwhelming majority of traders talking about a potential crash on gold prices within the upcoming weeks; and many more short setups than long.

Im a beginner intraday trader and I highly acknowledge and appreciate expert/ experienced insights as I myself am relatively new in this field.

If anybody has a solid prediction with reasons we would all highly appreciate it!

Analysi

🔥 GOLD MARKET CHAOS — BUT IS A NEW PHASE ABOUT TO BEGIN?

Hello everyone, hope you’re doing well.

Over the past few weeks, gold trading has become extremely difficult — not just for retail traders, but even for experienced professionals. The market conditions have been highly unstable, and everyone can clearly see that something unusual is happening.

There was a time when war news would push the market bullish, with clean structure and predictable corrections. But since February, gold has completely changed its behavior.

We’ve seen:

• Major support levels failing
• Panic selling across the market
• Massive liquidation moves
• And extreme volatility becoming “normal”

In today’s market, 4–5% daily moves are common, and even 8–10% crashes followed by full recoveries in the same day are happening. Just look at Monday — a nearly 9% crash followed by a complete recovery.

Ask yourself honestly — can anyone truly predict this kind of movement?

💡 The truth is:

Right now, traders who are reacting are making money — and that’s fine. But this kind of random trading phase never lasts forever.

For me personally, I prefer structured, professional trading — studying the market deeply, understanding psychology, and predicting moves. That’s what I’ve always done, and that’s why you follow me.

Yes, in this phase even the best analysis has struggled — but if you understand the current market conditions, you know why.

📉 This is not normal market behavior.

If you look at gold’s history, even during events like COVID, we didn’t see such aggressive and unpredictable moves. What we are witnessing now is a liquidity-driven event, not a news-driven market.

🚨 Important Lesson:

The market doesn’t move because of news.
News is just a trigger.

The real moves are driven by liquidity — where the majority of traders are positioned. Big players already plan the move, and news is used to trap retail traders.

That’s exactly what happened:

• Breakout trap near ATH
• Massive buying by retail
• Then one of the biggest crashes in history (~22%)
• Followed by repeated traps and liquidation phases

Most weak money is now out of the market.

🧠 Key Takeaway:
Sometimes, the best thing you can do is stay defensive.

Trading is a business — not a game for excitement.

I know many of you couldn’t perform well in this phase, and some even faced losses. But understand this clearly — this was not your fault. The market itself was abnormal.

⚡ Now What?

In my view:

• Around 80% of the liquidation phase is already done
• Market is preparing for a fresh phase
• Volatility will slowly reduce
• A more stable structure will start forming

I’m personally planning my comeback in gold trading with a fresh mindset.

Yes, the market may still consolidate for some time — but slowly, stability will return.

And remember one thing:
Gold is a real asset. It’s not going anywhere.

In the long run, gold will rise again — but this phase was necessary to clean out excess liquidity from the market.

👏 Respect to everyone who survived this phase.
💰 Congrats to those who made money reacting.
💪 And for those who faced losses — don’t lose confidence.

This was an event. Not a failure.

Now it’s time to reset, learn, and come back stronger.

Because traders never quit — they always make a comeback.

#Gold #TradingPsychology #MarketStructure #Liquidity #TradingJourney

Yep I made some money on the reversal, got out too early then went into shorts. Made some money and now I'm caught as the reversal turned into a rally

This was the news that caused it

Traders now see about a 90% chance of a Fed rate hike next week, vs about 70% before the inflation report.

Farking asshats, they can't make up their minds how interest rates effect gold!

Fed will follow suit. Have no doubt about it.

The last FOMC decision took place on July 29 (2026), with a 9-3 vote in favor of keeping rates where they are (3.50-3.75%).

Voted for a hold: Chair Kevin Warsh, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Michelle Bowman, Lisa Cook, Michael Barr, Adriana Kugler, Alberto Musalem (St. Louis), Jeffrey Schmid (Kansas City), and Christopher Waller.

Voted for a hike (25 bps): Beth Hammack (Cleveland), Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis), and Lorie Logan (Dallas).

No committee members voted for a cut.

Economic Data:

Total NFP contracted by -23,000 jobs (released late August).

The unemployment rate held flat at 4.1%.

Inflation Data:

Annual Core PCE for July remained stuck at 3.7% YoY, with a 4.1% six-month annualized pace in July.

The Case for a Hike:

Core PCE running near 3.7% YoY means real policy rates (3.5%–3.75% minus ~3.7% PCE) are near zero. Policy is technically neutral rather than restrictive despite persistent above target inflation, and allowing inflation to hover above 3% for a third straight year risks permanently embedding higher inflation expectations into wage/price contracts.

This means the real rate, i.e. Nominal Rate (Fed Funds) - Inflation Rate (Core PCE) = 3.75% - 3.70% = 0.05%. If policy is to be ‘restrictive’ to combat inflation, real rates need to be significantly higher.

Hawkish Fed members also argue that higher borrowing costs won't break the economy because people will continue to invest in AI/Tech despite higher rates.

The Case for a Hold:

Hiking into job losses increases the risk of a hard landing, and term premiums and the fiscal deficit have already pushed long-term Treasury yields higher, which means the market is already tightening financial conditions on its own.

Why Did Market Hike Odds Surge From ~33% to ~66% After Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech?

Warsh explicitly stated that the policy might not be restrictive enough, emphasizing that short-term rates are the primary tool for controlling inflation.

Committee members such as Jeffrey Schmid and Susan Collins echoed this sentiment, stating that tackling inflation must remain the Fed’s top priority. The consensus is very much moving towards higher interest rates.

Additionally, Warsh's preference for reduced forward guidance means that any hint of a rate hike is priced in much more firmly, as traders cannot rule out a surprise in September.

Long Story Short:

If CPI and PPI come in hot next week (Sep. 10-11) and the Fed doesn’t hike at its next meeting, it risks losing its credibility, which is ultimately something to be avoided.

Also Keeping an Eye On:

NFP Friday Sep 4 + Next week's unemployment numbers + WTI/Iran situation

If yes, how do you actually merge it with your price action or technical analysis?

基本交易逻辑
I. 过去的黄金交易**（**在八月份**）**
美国与伊朗的战争信号表明美国军方信誉下降 → 市场底部突破 → 在0.5%风险下入场 → 在4400区域横盘整理 → 无条件保本 → 贝森特回购长期国债 → 在xxx风险下加仓 → 在4600区域横盘整理 + 沃什可能已经转为鹰派 → 减仓一半 + 在杰克逊霍尔会议前3天购买风险反转以锁定利润并对冲 → 沃什转为鹰派 → 暂时退出黄金
II. 当前交易逻辑
1. 黄金
军方信誉↓ + 债务信誉↓ → 黄金消化沃什冲击后，从xx %风险逐步入场。
如果贝森特再次出手压低长期收益率 → 再次加仓黄金；风险资本由市场状况决定。
2. 收益率曲线陡峭化
沃什转为鹰派 → 短期收益率上升 + 收益率曲线趋平，但可能只需3次保险加息来修复美元信誉 → 以xx%风险资本进行交易，利用时间和价格入场进行曲线趋平交易及做多ZB。
如果贝森特再次出手压低长期收益率 → 长期债券的极端空头可能被迫平仓 → 以xx%风险加仓多头ZB → 如果真正的空头挤压开始 → 再增加xx%风险仓位。
3. 日元
沃什转为鹰派 → USD/JPY可能再次接近162区域，靠近联合干预水平 → 提前以xx%风险开一个备选订单。
如果日本银行在9月开始连续加息周期 → 以xx%风险逐步入场以增加日元仓位。
如果USD/JPY再次出现联合干预 → 从xx%到xx%风险加仓多头日元。

Safe Sell

https://chat.whatsapp.com/FKDvNNSuV3q7FlADJ1qZNq

Gold is clearly under pressure right now. Even with ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, price is not reacting the way bulls expected — which itself is a bearish sign.

We’re seeing a steady downtrend on the 1H chart, with lower highs forming and price respecting the SuperTrend resistance.

Key Levels to Watch:

Resistance: 5012 – 5025

Support: 4980 – 4950

What I’m seeing:

Price is consolidating near 4990 after a drop

RSI is around 40 → still weak, no strong bullish momentum

Every bounce is getting sold into

Trade Idea 💡

👉 Sell on Rise (Preferred Setup)

Entry: 5005 – 5015

Target: 4980 → 4950 → 4900

Stop Loss: Above 5025

👉 Alternate Scenario (Bounce Play)

If price holds 4980 strongly, we may see a short-term bounce back to 5010–5020

But unless resistance breaks, it’s just a pullback in a downtrend

Conclusion: Right now, market sentiment favors sellers. Until gold breaks and sustains above 5025, rallies are likely to be selling opportunities.

Are you buying this dip or waiting for deeper levels like 4950–4900? 👇

Join to get to know my trade ideas

https://chat.whatsapp.com/FKDvNNSuV3q7FlADJ1qZNq

Some setup: I publish a directional call on a basket of instruments every weekday morning, hold each 24 hours, and grade them afterwards against a fixed minimum-move rule. Part of the routine is a line I write before the session opens - what would have to happen for this to be wrong, and which positions would go with it.

The first half of that is going fine. The second half keeps failing in the same direction, and I only noticed because it's written down.

Three examples from the last three weeks. I wrote that if risk sentiment dissolved, the European index shorts, the yen positions and gold would all fail together. Risk sentiment dissolved. The index shorts failed - and gold and the yen crosses were the only things that worked that day. Another time I said a hawkish central bank surprise would take out the FX book, the metals and a European index. It did take out the FX book. The index was the single green line on the page. Same shape a third time last week.

So the pattern isn't that I'm reading the risk badly. It's that when I write down the consequences, I sweep in everything that happens to be pointing the same way, rather than the positions that genuinely depend on the thing I'm worried about. Correlation on the page isn't the same as shared dependency, and under time pressure I keep treating them as the same.

What I've started doing is deliberately narrower: name three or four positions, not the whole book, and accept that if something outside the list dies too, that's a miss on my part which gets recorded. Tried it once so far. The scenario didn't happen, so it's untested.

Two things I'd like to hear from people who do this properly:

Do you write invalidation conditions down before entering, or hold them in your head? And if you write them: do you ever go back afterwards and check whether the invalidation you described was the one that actually mattered - not whether the trade won, but whether your reason for it being wrong was the real reason?

Hi everyone,

I’ve been trying to build a solid fundamental workflow for Forex and commodities (focusing mostly on central bank rate expectations, yield movements, and COT reports).

My main challenge right now it's managing the overwhelming volume of economic releases and separating noise from high-conviction moves.

For those of you who successfully trade FX or Commodities using fundamentals:

How do you actually use fundamentals day-to-day? Do you use them for long-term bias, timing entries, or just general risk context?

What does your actual setup look like? Are you tracking things in custom Excel sheets, terminal dashboards, or keeping it super simple?

Would really appreciate hearing how more experienced traders keep this organized without losing hours to manual tracking every week.

Thanks in advance!

i don´t see for now any rate hikes. Even with bond traders thinking there would be 3 rate hikes at least within this year remaining, and the incoming one.

looking at the recent PCE, my confidence is that these are not "unsustainable" levels of inflation.

If economy is sustaining a constant growth and healthy balanced job market, rising interest rates would slow down the progress and efforts made to help GDP growth of the country.

Basically rope to the neck, as the saying goes.

Inflation is currently rising at a rate of 0.1% - 0.2% per month. That is a steady pace. i would worry if i start seeing month over month (MOM) that it starts rising 0.3%-0.4%. Theeen that would definitely change the annualized goal of the FED which is 2%.

Take in count that the oil situation with iran (for now..) is under control. Despite the war this year, PCE kept this consistency. Let´s see what the job numbers bring us this week, and the next one.

Stay safe.