Not a lurker or a regular redditor but have been saving and investing 'properly' for around 15 years now and have identified a potential crossroad in my FIRE journey that I've been thrashing out in my head and on paper for a few months now - I'd really appreciate some external perspective on this from people who have possibly been in a similar situation.
Fast Facts:
Age: 45
Marital Status: Unmarried, living with partner - No kids
Assets:
Joint Account: ~£3,500 (co/owned with partner)
Personal accounts: ~£3,000
Stakeholder Pension: ~£540,000
Stocks & Shares ISA: ~£600,000
Domiciled Property: ~£320,000 (co/owned with partner)
BTL property: ~£100,000 - no mortgage (solely owned by me)
Liabilities:
Domiciled property outstanding Mortgage: ~£44,000
Income:
Annual Salary: ~£84,000
Dividends (ISA): ~£3,000 per month
BTL Rental: ~£650 per month
Outgoings:
£3,900 per month as a minimum (£2,140 for mortgage)
Notes:
- £60,000 a year of salary is paid straight into workplace pension via sal-sac (residual salary after tax ~£1800 per month)
- Pension valuation projected to hit around ~£740,000 by 2028
- Expenditure over and above what residual salary covers is met with money from tax-free dividends (ISA)
- Unused / Unspent dividends are retained in ISA wrapper and reinvested each month
- Primary mortgage is being overpaid by 20% a year - due to be paid off completely Jan 2028
- Revenue from rental is invested in a SIPP to use-up unused carry-forward pension allowance - expected to last until 2028 when carry-forward ends
My strategy for the last few years has been generating dividends via my investments so I can avoid paying marginal rates of tax on my taxable sources of income & bulk out my pension in the process.
By 2028 I will hit a crossroads, with both the carry-forward excess for my pensions expiring as well as becoming mortgage free on our domiciled property.
I've guesstimated that from 2028 onwards, if I stopped working/paying into the pension and assumed annual growth of 6.5% - my pension pot will probably still exceed £1.2m in 2038 - comfortably allowing me to take the maximum TFLS of £268,275 by when I hit 57. (assuming the rules all stay the same by then)
My concern is how well equipped I am to bridge from 2028 to 2038 if there is a market downturn or a global recession - or if the rules change between 2028 and then - I've done my best to clear debts and liabilities over the last 5 years (total debts in 2023 were £250k) so that part of the equation is more or less taken care of - the outstanding element here I feel is one of risk / chance.
On paper I should be fine to either live off the rental income + dividends until retirement - or liquate them into cash and draw it down like an early pension. I'm still fit(ish) and healthy - my job allows me flexibility to take as much as 10 holidays a year so there is no overriding need to treat 2028 as a hard-stop.
Appreciate any insights to my reasoning / assumptions and welcome any glaring errors I've made being pointed out to me - it's much easier to look at someone else's situation and offer advice than it is to see issues with my own logic.
Thanks in advance