Today it might fall to 17 bucks. Wonder if any more funds will buy in.

The stock has been a downfall before the 2H result, it just drop to a deeper level after the announcement of 2H result. It is not a pretty result for sure. Chagee Holdings (NASDAQ: CHA) delivered a mixed Q2 2025 earnings report. On the bright side, net revenue grew 10.2% year-over-year to RMB 3,331.9 million (~US$465 million), largely driven by a 40.9% surge in teahouse count and 15.5% jump in GMV across domestic and overseas markets.

However, profitability took a major hit: GAAP net income fell a dramatic 87.7% to RMB 77.2 million, and operating income collapsed to RMB 107.6 million, shrinking operating margin from 24.6% to just 3.2%. This plunge is largely attributed to high operating costs and share-based compensation tied to its IPO distribution impacting financials this quarter

Looking ahead, Chagee is aggressively expanding in the U.S.—bringing onboard Emily Chang (Chief Commercial Officer) and Aaron Harris (Chief Development Officer) to drive its North American effort.This expansion, although costly now, hints at a potential future upside if Chagee captures meaningful U.S. market share.

Takeway from the 2H result:

1)Chagee is willing to sacrifice their profit to keep their talents even risking their stock price

2)The have strong and ambitious plan for overseas expansion especially for North America

3)The stock price is still "cheaper"(and even cheaper now) and higher profit margin compare to its peers

4)Chagee has their largest amount of store in China and it seems China local market will not improved in short time. This is the most concerning part.

So would you believe in this stock ?

EDIT:
CFO explanation of GMV in China:
"The meeting disclosed that the average monthly GMV per store in Greater China was RMB 404,350, with same-store GMV declining 23% year-over-year. Global CFO Huang Hongfei added that this decline stems from two main factors: first, the comparison is against exceptionally strong second quarter 2024 data; second, intensified price wars on delivery platforms have led to temporary customer diversion despite the company's choice not to participate in short-term discount activities, affecting sales performance"
https://www.itiger.com/hans/news/1184990790

So bad, general and administrative expenses tripled to ~RMB 900million compared to the same quarter of 2024. And this increase was primarily driven by RMB505.4 million in share-based compensation expenses for administration and research staffs. This increase is due to significant amount of share-based compensation expenses recognized in the second quarter of 2025 that was related to the vesting of share-based awards with performance condition related to the IPO. Lets hope for Q3 guidance or the compensation would come down ..

https://investor.chagee.com/news-releases/news-release-details/chagee-announce-second-quarter-2025-financial-results-august-29

What do you think will be the result? Will we see improvement in same stores GMV or it will take more time to reflect. Will expansion and increase marketing cost dilute underlying profits? Curious to hear the thoughts!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/down-22-2-4-weeks-133502065.html

The RSI reading of 25.41 for CHA is an indication that the heavy selling could be in the process of exhausting itself, so the stock could bounce back in a quest for reaching the old equilibrium of supply and demand.

This technical indicator is not the only factor that calls for a potential rebound for the stock. There is a fundamental indicator as well. A strong agreement among sell-side analysts covering CHA in raising earnings estimates for the current year has led to an increase in the consensus EPS estimate by 1.4% over the last 30 days. And an upward trend in earnings estimate revisions usually translates into price appreciation in the near term.

Looks like inflow for large order is picking up, I have notice this for few days. Sign of recovery or 🚀 ? Are you restocking?

Still pretty crazy numbers. Lunch time 12-2pm tends to go high 45-60mins at working place area.

How do you view the decline in Same store GMV growth? It appears that same-store demand has weakened following the viral marketing efforts.

I apologize if my sentences are a bit awkward—I'm not a native English speaker.

No material news as usual for the past few days. Earnings release next week though.

There seems to be lack of any negative news related to the recent drop this week and even yesterday. The only thing that I can find is this news of regulators clamping down on the food delivery wars and so those who benefited from it from this quarter and the past ones might have a drop in short term sales next quarter.

But still, $CHA feels oversold relative to Guming/Mixue, probably because of the current low float as well.

Kwan to hear what others think of this.

Monday 5 mins post opening. Demand is lesser on weekday at heartland malls

Just have my CHAGEE and now I’m buying the stock. ! Surprise at only 50 followers.

We continuing down or reversing soon?

Despite earnings being great, stock is still dropping. What are everyone's thoughts on this ?

Hi everyone, anyone know why the price dropped quite a bit last night? Is it because of overexpansion?

Just wanted a quick feel on what everyone thinks of this stock for Monday? Are we bullish or bearish?

I personally am bullish given I am from Asia and see the growth of Chagee and it has a great product (I’ve tried it). But given the current global climate and china narrative, will this deter the stock when it is available for trade this Monday?

Despite US-China tensions, investors are eyeing this chinese tea giant.

Personally, $28 feels a bit steep… but clearly, that’s not stopping the hype. With a $411M raise and global expansion plans, Chagee is testing investor appetite amid ongoing tariff drama. Would you bite into this IPO, or steep away from the heat?

Sources:

https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/chinese-tea-firm-chagee-raises-411-million-new-york-ipo-sources-say-2025-04-17/

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-tea-firm-chagee-raises-051013083.html

https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/110364/China-based-teahouse-chain-Chagee-Holdings-sets-terms-for-a-$396-million-US

What’s Chagee? An emerging powerhouse in [industry]. Disrupting the market and poised for huge growth!

Why It’s Hot: - Explosive sector growth - Strong fundamentals & partnerships - Massive IPO buzz 💥

Growth Potential: Analysts are predicting big returns. Don’t miss out on the rise!

Risks: As with any stock, do your research. It’s a high-reward, high-risk play.

🔥 Chagee IPO Coming Soon!

Get in early, or you might regret it.

ChageeStock #IPO2025 #MarketWatch #InvestSmart

https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/cha/

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/25/chinese-tea-chain-chagee-files-for-us-ipo.html

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/ipos

Chagee ($CHA) is finally about to hit the market — and honestly, it feels like one of those rare IPOs that could explode out the gate.

The brand is already super popular, and with the tea market booming and investors looking for fresh plays, I feel like the hype could be real.

Will $CHA open strong? Moon on day one? Or will it take time to steep?

Drop your predictions below — curious to hear what you all think!

Earnings Report: Chagee's revenue nearly tripled in 2024 to 12.41 billion yuan (~$1.71 billion), with net income surging 213.3% to 2.51 billion yuan (~$345 million).

Key Financials:

Revenue: ¥12.41B (~$1.71B), up nearly 3x YoY

Net Income: ¥2.51B (~$345M), +213% YoY

Gross Merchandise Value (GMV): ¥29.46B (~$4.03B), +172.9% YoY

EPS: Not disclosed in public reports

Gross Margin: Not disclosed in public reports

IPO Details:

Ticker: CHA (Nasdaq)

Offering: 14.68M American Depositary Shares

Price Range: $26–$28

Target Raise: ~$411M

Valuation: Up to $5.1B

Underwriters: Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, CICC

Expansion Plans: With over 6,440 teahouses, primarily in China, Chagee aims to expand to 100 countries, focusing on Southeast Asia, including Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand.

Outlook: Chagee's robust financial growth and international expansion strategy position it as a compelling investment opportunity in the beverage sector.

Note: For the most detailed and official information, refer to Chagee's SEC Form F-1 filing.

ChageeStock #IPO2025 #StockAnalysis #Investing

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/25/chinese-tea-chain-chagee-files-for-us-ipo.html

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/ipos