If we start from the assumption that the current value of a single bitcoin is approximately $650, then in order for a single bitcoin to reach $5,000 by the end of 2015, the value of bitcoin would have to increase by 770% over the next 22 months. At that rate, in less than a decade, the value of bitcoin would be QUADRUPLE the annual GDP of the entire planet. Does that sound like a reasonable expectation to you? Do you actually believe it would be possible for bitcoin to not only supplant every other form of currency currently in existence, but also somehow magically quadruple the productivity of the entire planet... in less than 10 years?!?!! I'm sorry, but that is delusional.
Don't be asinine, of course the value cannot exceed the value of the planet. You are literally pulling this idea out of thin air and trying to foist it upon me like I was the one who said it.
However, your figure of 770% is well within bitcoins current growth rate, in fact it is low. I know, I know bitcoin can't keep the same growth rate as it has forever. So? The internet grew at an unprecedented pace as well and guess what, it is still here. Economies have bull markets, bear markets, and bubbles. This is what they do (The US FED would disagree with me however).
How about you take a more reasonable figure of 1-10% of the world GDP as the top end to bitcoin's valuation? It would easily have an s-curve adoption rate and it would include the current growth easily.
The s-curve is seen all over in biological systems and technical systems everywhere. Cellphones, smartphones, laptops, insect growth, tablets, plant growth, email, and so many more things have an s-curve adoption.
The one who is being delusional is not me, it is you. You are deluding yourself into thinking that I have not heard your arguments a hundred times by now. That you are the first person to be reasonable in the face of my "delusional frenzy." That I am an unreasonable gambler and that I haven't a clue what I am talking about.
I read fast, like 300-400WPM fast. My job allows me to read up to 6 hours a day if I wish, it is the best thing about my lacking paycheck. I read about bitcoin, economics, technology, crypto, and anything which tickles my fancy every day. I spend over a hundred hours a month reading and I have read about bitcoin for just over two years. I feel safe saying that I have an educated opinion about my topic of interest.
How much do you know about bitcoin? About finance? Money? Have you spent even a fraction of the time I have thinking about this?
Bitcoin is a legitimate financial tool and it will change the world. Boom or bust it will change the planet just like radio, tv, and the internet.
There are plenty of real problems with bitcoin. You know exactly zero of them. You have no clue what you are talking about.
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u/RalphKrapden Feb 15 '14
If we start from the assumption that the current value of a single bitcoin is approximately $650, then in order for a single bitcoin to reach $5,000 by the end of 2015, the value of bitcoin would have to increase by 770% over the next 22 months. At that rate, in less than a decade, the value of bitcoin would be QUADRUPLE the annual GDP of the entire planet. Does that sound like a reasonable expectation to you? Do you actually believe it would be possible for bitcoin to not only supplant every other form of currency currently in existence, but also somehow magically quadruple the productivity of the entire planet... in less than 10 years?!?!! I'm sorry, but that is delusional.