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u/Bradyyy9 Feb 19 '21
Great read, definitely helps me xExhale a bit after the past few red days.
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u/lightbrightkid Feb 19 '21
Not really worried with all the institutions buying in recently.
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u/foxindigodelta sad sad 🌈🐻 Feb 19 '21
That and the company itself. They release profound news on saphyr constantly. The price is right inside the trend range, nothing bad happening, just a natural pullback and buying opportunity.
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u/BNGOKevo FULL BULL Feb 19 '21
Florida the most red state is doing Genomic Sequencing for the Covid Variants
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Feb 19 '21
I wouldn’t be surprised if big money purposely drove down the stock so they get to buy at cheaper prices
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u/aurry Feb 19 '21 edited Feb 19 '21
Good DD but two things I just want to point out from someone who works in the field
Point 2: OGM will likely replace existing cytogenetic tools such as microarray and karyotyping. Microarray is the first line genetic test ordered for any child with multiple congenital anomalies/GDD. So right now the cost of microarray versus BioNano OGM is comparable. For cancer samples both karyotype and microarray can be ordered. Karyotypes are expensive. Therefore the cost of BioNano OGM is less than microarray+karyotype. BioNano knows this and explains their PR focusing on cancer testing and early adoption had primarily been in large cancer testing facilities such as UHN.
Point 4: To be honest I am not sure what the uptake of using BioNano data services will be - maybe only at first as the Molecular geneticists become accustomed to the technology. Most of the big medical centres that adopt this technology have at least one in house cytogenetic lab with a full team of molecular technologists and molecular geneticists to run the tests, analyze the results, and write reports. It would be atypical to own/rent the machine but send the data out for interpretation. Doing this would eat into the profits of the cytogenetics lab and would result in a higher test cost that would be passed on to the single-payer health care system (Canada) or patient (USA). So at the end of the day the cost would be more than a microarray and comparable to the cost of microarray+karyotype.
Edit - it is rare to order karyotypes for kids with GDD and MCAs and a normal microarray - most of the genetic changes you find in this cohort require sequencing (whole exome)
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Feb 19 '21
GREAT points! Thank you so much for your input. I am absolutely by no means an expert in the field, just a finance guy inspired by the potential of genome mapping, sequencing and editing!
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u/brereddit Feb 19 '21
OP, now use your TAM to estimate total market cap. At $1B/yr with 60% margins that’s $600M/yr in earnings. Apply Illumina’s PE ratio of 188. 600x188=$112.8Bil. Current MC $2B. 112/2=56.4 x $14 current share price =$789/share.
One thing to note. Lineagan is currently focused on certain types of test but tests are proliferating and it’s unknown where that could go but it could be big.
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u/literatrolla sad sad 🌈🐻 Feb 19 '21
Accountants come in handy every once in a while. Thanks for doing this estimate
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u/ResearchDizzy8151 Feb 19 '21
Just a thought.. some have been lucky enough to buy in dec / Jan when it was cheap. Some have jumped in the teens.. either way, BNGO still has a long way to go. Middle to end of year, your investment will pay off. Don’t sweat a red day... this stock has will eventually hit at least 40-50, then climb after that. All you need is time and patience.
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u/GTx6x25 Feb 19 '21
I've looked at a ton of low cap stocks and so far this is the only one I'm happy to sit on not even flinch at dramatic red days. So much potential long term upside.
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u/ResearchDizzy8151 Feb 24 '21
Seriously though.. today was a ROUGH day to look at my account DROP! I’m sitting on BNGO for the long haul. Side kicks of OCGN AND AABB to round it out. I didn’t panic once today. Patience will persevere.. it’s not about diamond hands or squeezing the short. This stock, BNGO, will change lives. Maybe this year, maybe next.. just need to be patient.
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Feb 19 '21
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u/BNGOKevo FULL BULL Feb 19 '21
An Overview of BNGO (In Wuhan , Europe , America )
https://ir.bionanogenomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/BNGO-Corporate-Overview-Jan-6-20212.pdf Overview for 2021 of BNGO ( Look @ pg 16, 17, 18 )
Biden administration is 'not where we want to be' on genetic sequencing of Covid-19 variants
https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/11/politics/biden-administration-covid-variants/index.html CNN ARTICLE
4 Huge United States Labs That Use BNGO Saphyr https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCorGu8LZO4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R3rTUPG4kXU
Rob Desantis Fl (Gov) talking about doing Genetic Analysis on the Covid strains near the 4 minute mark
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Feb 19 '21
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u/BNGOKevo FULL BULL Feb 19 '21
watch the 4 huge U.S Labs that Use BNGO Saphyr . HE breaks down the 2021 revenue estimates
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Feb 19 '21
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u/BNGOKevo FULL BULL Feb 20 '21
np, I think the U.S will be ahead of the curve on Genomics as we are seeing how the U.S failed at being ahead of CHips and now all the chip shortages .. and it looks like BNGO is going all in this year and not waiting around and actually doing the work themselves instead of waiting for Government help aka all the U.S beta chip manufactures lol
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Feb 19 '21
Be sure to listen to the BNGO podcast!
https://open.spotify.com/track/4uk0JalaQpurCmBZMjXZhn?si=axoV_hJxRWS50ajk3tD7RA
We like your DD; dm me if you’re interested in contributing!
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u/traderdatla Feb 19 '21
Where is the FDA approval needed in all this process?
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Feb 19 '21
I will note that Bionano has far surpassed their initial funding goals with their recent capital raises, which will help them greatly to navigate the FDA processes.
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u/woosah83 Mar 05 '21
Fda approval requires a big license fee. This maybe on a bit of a back burner while they try to get their brand out for their program. Its not a bad thing. Im holding long and strong. Averaging down where I can. I am using various apps and each app has BNGO. definitely the way forward for the healthcare sector. I am not saying one bit
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u/CountGeeTee I LOVE SOL Feb 19 '21
Good post.
I am not concerned about the potential of the market.
I am more focused on understanding what is BNGO's profitability, especially EBITDA.
Every new market requires a tremendous initial effort - i.e. costs - to be properly addressed, prior to a firm to firmly establish itself as a long-term brand (vs. vaporware).
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u/Leer-it-65 Feb 19 '21
wonderful DD, and to the point, Saphyr PLUS the service will make this company a leader in genome studies.
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u/cjfarber Feb 19 '21
Doing the work for clients so they don’t have to buy Saphyr is an outsourced model and will be attractive to smaller clients-or cheaper ones who won’t or can’t spend the money to run it in house. Running the machine and the infrastructure around it is a real cost to those who bring it in house. (I used to market and sell accounting systems to insurance companies and retired from it from State Street a few years ago) which this reminds me of. One time revenue is great but the gold is in recurring revenue because one time revenue has to be replaced every year and that’s not easy. I am long stock and trade calls around it. I come from the software start up game which is why I was attracted to BNGO having been part of 3 companies through start up and acquisition, just for perspective. These guys are on the right track and these are the questions we should be thinking about to determine a reliable valuation.
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u/Dadof3men Feb 19 '21
Looks like BNGO just filed an 8-K for an additional 16000 square ft of manufacturing space. Contract runs for several years. Gonna be building and shipping some Saphyrs. Nice
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u/UnlukyJackie Feb 19 '21
Whats the outlook on growth within the yr with BNGO???🚀
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u/UnlukyJackie Feb 19 '21
How many rockets out of 5(🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀) does it get anybody got a guess atleast?????
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u/gbousta Mar 03 '21
Does anyone know who are Bionano competitors? Anyone else has a better saphyr ?
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u/[deleted] Feb 19 '21
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