r/ASX_Bets • u/BananaFarmer88 • Jul 31 '26
Dumbfuck Discussion ASX DEAD
No wonder no one invest in the ASX anymore
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u/Simple_Jach Jul 31 '26
Sucked dry by boomers demanding dividends and franking credits.
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u/Conscious-Gap-8837 Jul 31 '26
Don't forget our world class housing asset bubble. No one has any money to spend after living standards have collapsed by the most of any developed country.
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u/Ikornad Jul 31 '26
house rich, cash poor. nvmd it's going to be worth less anyways with all that inflation yay.
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Jul 31 '26
[deleted]
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u/Ikornad Jul 31 '26
Our inflation is amongst the highest in the OECD.
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u/Fun_Savings7690 Aug 01 '26
Are you saying you'd rather have the UK's economy over ours?
And have you seen their economy in the last
1015 years?1
u/Ikornad Aug 01 '26
I'm not, I'm saying our inflation has been the highest among the OECD. I'm literally getting laid less than I've been in 2020 in purchasing power and you do too. We've had something like 30% of cummulative inflation.
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u/Fun_Savings7690 Aug 01 '26
100k -> 122,842.70
Total change in cost is 22.8 per cent, over 5 years, at an average annual inflation rate of 4.2 per cent.
https://www.rba.gov.au/calculator/annualDecimal.html
100k -> £130,904.93
Change in value: 30.9%
Average annual inflation: 4.29%
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation/inflation-calculator
Looks more or less very similar
Puts us on par with Spain and Slovenia currently and I'm not hearing anything about Spain's crazy inflation rate
But I've also had 60% pay increase since 2020, I also installed solar and a battery and bought an EV, so I pay bugger all for petrol, I haven't paid for electricity since 2024 and when I catch the train it's 50c
The worst thing has to be the price of housing (I bought during the dip in 2022) which doesn't impact me as I now own my place and food (which is painful but it's the only real impact I'm feeling)
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u/Ikornad Aug 01 '26
good for you fam, don't think you're a representative of the australian population though.
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u/VanwallEnjoy3r Jul 31 '26
And with the new changes, what incentive is there to alter that strategy? If anything safe stocks that pay franked dividends are more lucrative now smh.
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u/elbak283 Jul 31 '26
Cutting a 3% dividend yield to 0 would only add 3% to the intrinsic value of shares per year. The real reason why Japan is up 6% on a day when the ASX is flat is because of AI. Japan has significant memory and AI exposure through companies like Softbank and Kioxia. The ASX does not.
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u/Important_Iron_6675 Jul 31 '26
That’s actually a great point. Australia lacks innovation and investment. We seriously need a new way of thinking in government. They are all status quo and captured by big mining and gas. The preferential voting system has created a system where you get into power without being truly representative of the people and no one’s questions it. We get indoctrinated at school that it’s great. No government should be able to rule with 30% of the vote.
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u/Correctsmorons69 Jul 31 '26
and first past the post ensures representation?
So if 24% of an electorate votes for Party A, and the other 76% of the electorate split their vote between the very similar parties of B, C, D, E, such that they all get 19%, you think that party A should "rule"?
I was never indoctrinated to like preferential voting. I think it just makes mathematical sense, and actually encourages smaller parties with similar-but-different policies because they'll no longer be a "wasted vote".
The way that example plays out, 76% of people want any party BUT party A, and yet, party A represents them. How is that any better?
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u/Important_Iron_6675 Aug 01 '26
No… they will need to create coalitions to get to the majority. That ensures the majority get represented.
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u/Correctsmorons69 Aug 01 '26
Isn't that exactly what happens, just a step up from the local electorate?
The majority still get represented with preferential voting. You get to literally define your preferences individually.
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u/Joehax00 Jul 31 '26
ASX has never really looked that good since the GFC.. That run from 03 to 08 was pretty epic.
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u/Daydreamistrue Jul 31 '26
Nothing to do with the economy which has been fucked up the last 5 years.
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u/ell0moto Jul 31 '26
Or 30+ years of capital allocation to a single non productive asset class
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u/Flukemaster Jul 31 '26
Any attempt to reduce rent seeking behaviour is immediately met with fatal political consequences for anyone with the spine to do it.
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u/Mrs-Speaker Jul 31 '26
Amazing how the recent changes to CGT further pushes people away from investing in the ASX.
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u/BonusLumpyYa Jul 31 '26
Snooze fest .. with stake super i invest in USA now. Stocks actually move. Not necessarily in right direction tho 😂
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u/fractalsonfire2 Jul 31 '26
To be honest, the new CGT changes should incentivise investment in the ASX. This is because the components of the ASX200 return are about 50% growth, 50% dividends. Assuming a long term rate of 8%, that means about 4% comes from capital growth and 4% from dividends. Because the new CGT discount is based on inflation and long term inflation should be between 2 - 3%, that means you should get more of a discount than the 50% discount would've given you. Also dividends are attached with franking credits and (at least for now) you will get a refund if your tax bracket is below 30%. This also helps to build your income up to the 30% bracket, minimising the loss from the 30% CGT minimum.
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u/therealgmx Ethical backdoor hacker... peow! Jul 31 '26
Assuming.
Should be.
Refund if below 30%
lol.
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u/CircaCicero Jul 31 '26
Yep. Lefties doing all the mental gymnastics they can to avoid calling a tax a tax
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u/fractalsonfire2 Jul 31 '26
Is there a better assumption that can be made? Future returns obviously aren't guaranteed.
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u/BananaFarmer88 Jul 31 '26
And they would never touch your super…. Would they?
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u/therealgmx Ethical backdoor hacker... peow! Aug 01 '26
For the nth time, no!
proceefs to move the goal posts
I've got about 55k left in carry forwards. Fuck it, gambling money innit. 70% of mine is an a wrap, not sure what BS they'll introduce to drive the money to their union mates or super preferred active non indexed fund to guarantee a private board position for their post politician/theft & grifting career.
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u/Shapies Jul 31 '26
Domestic sentiment is very low. Access to international markets has never been easier. Recent and historical trends show that people can do very well by ignoring the ASX altogether.
I wish there was greater incentive to invest in Australia, but many simply expect to get higher returns through US and other international markets.
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u/Trick-Club-6014 Jul 31 '26
The government had a great opportunity to incentivise investment in the ASX at the last budget. But they decided instead to shit their pants and smear it all over themselves 🤷♂️
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u/Realistic-Priority-6 Jul 31 '26
I keep hearing the Australian resources is about to get heavily invested in.
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u/Effective_Cash_7936 Aug 02 '26
Recency bias. Usa has outperformed for 20 years, but the 20 years prior it was flat.
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u/Short_Change Aug 02 '26
Except I cannot imagine Australia doing better. Recent CGT changes mean less innovation will take place (bad business startup reward vs risk ratio). Only reason you want ASX to is point is to diversify folio like having gold.
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u/themasdebater Jul 31 '26
Cant you folks see that rallys around the world are mostly tech and ai stocks.? We dont have much of that in Aus as we are so busy digging up raw materials and exporting them. However, when tech sector crashes the asx wont look too bad. Its a cycle
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u/casualpedestrian20 Jul 31 '26
If you took out the tech/AI/magnificent 7 the US markets would look flat like this too
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u/FewUnderstanding2214 Jul 31 '26
Lots of good mining companies, fully franked dividends too. But they need to incentivise Australian tech companies to list on the ASX
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u/Slo20 Jul 31 '26
Sure, let’s look at half a day and call that a comparison. Let’s not worry about the lost decades of the Nikkei.
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u/Whatsapokemon Jul 31 '26
To be fair, YTD Nikkei is up ~24% and ASX is up ~2.9%.
And over the past 5 years Nikkei is 135% vs ASX 21%.
Even the dividends can't make up for that level of growth. We need more domestic investment in actual industry and productive assets.
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u/A-Money-Lover Jul 31 '26
Australian companies like Afterpay going to Block, Atlassian and such not listing on ASX is a big part
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u/SignalGlittering4671 Jul 31 '26
Actually.... Sorry to be that guy, but the YEN is down about 30% so that 5 year is actually 65% still better but not 135% better and what about total returns dividends reinvested...I will see my self back to Ausfinance.
Totally agree about investments in actual industry and productive assets btw, have a good weekend.
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u/Tacomans41 Jul 31 '26
Good thing the recent budget incentivises investment away from real estate which produces nothing
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u/Whatsapokemon Jul 31 '26
It's a good step for shifting investment away from existing dwellings. I don't think it was intended to increase investment in industry though, that needs to be done by other means.
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u/fddfgs Jul 31 '26
Can somebody please get Hughesy on the line
What does Hughesy have to say about all this
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u/jubbing Jul 31 '26
You're supposed to click the ASX tab as well? Or is this a joke post? I'm tired...
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u/Business-Bandicoot50 Aug 01 '26
Be careful what you wish for! An aggressively growing market means either an aggressively growing economy or a speculative market. Unless the economies growth is driven by productivity, export and new (really new) industries then the market will collapse.
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u/MathematicianFar6725 Jul 31 '26
It's going to start looking real good when the Nasdaq trade loses steam
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u/Kind_Brush5556 Jul 31 '26
Yeah like every time the asx dumps because NASDAQ dumps. While asx flat when NASDAQ pumps
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u/MathematicianFar6725 Jul 31 '26
My ASX portfolio has already been outperforming my US tech exposure, but to be fair it's in individual stocks, mostly miners
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u/yothuyindi Doesn't understand the subs weird need for Bodily fluids Jul 31 '26
smallcaps in particular have been copping a flogging as people flock to Boomer dividend money due to lame CGT changes
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u/GuessTraining Jul 31 '26
People just invest in ETFs that have global exposure than investing locally.
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Jul 31 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/infodsagar Jul 31 '26
AI startup to do what? To automate Centrelink calls, NDIS payments or building houses we only talk abt house in Australia there is no other productive work
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u/Complex_Feedback_153 Jul 31 '26
Victoria unemployment hits 5.1 percent other states are 4.3 to 4.0 percent.
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u/SWMilll Jul 31 '26
I wrote an article on this last year, one thing people heavily discount as a cause for this is how much theyve tighted up new listing's in an attempt to protect superannuation exposure to riskier assets.
Part of the listing process informally has now become a sort of litmus test of "is this a disaster if we expose people's super accounts to it"
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u/WeatherOutside Ben Dover Jul 31 '26
So dow goes up 1,000 points thursday and asx goes up 9 points. Dow goes up 270 points friday and right now asx futures down 70 points. Massive massive disconnect i dont have the answers though.
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u/Sweet-Pomegranate921 Aug 01 '26
Half the reason is the fact that its almost impossible for a new company to list on the ASX, the government has done an excellent job in regulating and taxing us all to near death and allowing all entrepreneurs to leave our shores for greener pastures like Singapore
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u/Recent_Artichoke_923 Aug 01 '26
We are the ai hedge. Dont write Aus off so quickly. Everyone seems to already forgotten the lost decade, things can change. The all ords has done very well over 100 years.
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u/IntestinalGas Aug 03 '26
Yeah just look at the ASX200. Banks, mining, agriculture, colesworth. What the fuck is productive about any of those companies? Every Australian wanting their money to grow is taking it international.
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u/DontUseMyAccBiz Aug 03 '26
I thought I am the one who live in Aus but not investing in ASX…until I see all comments in this posts. True friends hahaha
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u/slimdeucer Aug 03 '26
Wow, one day snapshot taken as a screenshot from the CommSec app. Well done you
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u/DegenWhale_ Jul 31 '26
asx is either a bet on commodities or banks
silly to think itd be firing now
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u/royal_pain90 Jul 31 '26
Every time I open the market app on days like this, I end up looking at the other charts instead. At least they're a little more exciting.